Last week was brutal, I went 5-11 and just murdered myself and probably anyone who tailed me. Variance is supposed to be a part of gambling but its not supposed to happen to me anyways I am going to keep posting and try to redeem myself... but yeah, that made me sad....I think I will make a play on all weekday games this week and see if I can get some momentum going into the weekend.
Anyways here is my early lean and why on the FLA-INT game... Hopefully somebody who keeps up with these schools can shine some light on anything I'm missing.
Early Lean for Tuesday
Tuesday: Troy vs Florida INT: Fla-Int -4 or better. Not sure on the o/u
Troy (22.7 / 34.7) 2-4 SU 1-5 ATS. 3-3 O/U
FLA (26.1 / 23.0) 4-3 SU, 3-4 ATS 2-5 O/U
Nothing jumps out when looking at offensive numbers, Troy averages 12 more yards per game but that’s no biggie. Troy’s defense however does allow 100 more yards of offense per game so that number definitely stands out. Some would argue that it’s because they have played Clemson and Arkansas but they actually gave up the most yardage to LA-Monroe and Middle Tennessee State. Troy has only held 1 opponent to less than 30pts all year (in a 24-23 win over UAB). Troy has also only scored over 28 just 1 time. Their closest loss has come @ 10pts to Arkansas, their other 3 losses; LA Monroe, ULL, and Clemson were all 14+. Their 2 wins however have come by a combined 4 points. Over the last 3 seasons Troy is 5-1 ATS coming off a bye week, and 6-1 SU vs Fla International since 92’. Conversely Florida international is 2-10 (over the last 3 seasons) ATS in all October games but also 4-1 ATS vs Troy sine 92’. Both teams are on 4 game losing streaks ATS, and both have gone UNDER in 3 of their last 3 games. Last year’s game was a 52-35 win for FLA-INT @ Troy. In 09 Troy won 42-33 but that was a better Troy team (most of Troy’s teams are better than this bunch). This game looks like a complete coin toss, (without knowing the spread yet) but I’m leaning towards Florida (especially if they are getting points). Any fans of these 2 ball clubs feel free to chime in.
FIU does have wins over Louisville and UCF but I dont know how much weight to give them.
They also looked very good for short stints against ArkSt, but ended up losing (I was on the right side of that one but if you'd have asked me my confidence level after the game started... it wouldn't have been high)