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Originally Posted by SmackdownV
This is the reason why Vegas makes money. Kids like this who just look at the records of the teams and come up with a bet. Obviously you didnt do any other research because Nick Foles with out-play UCLA's backup qb without a doubt. Arizona is hungry for a win tonight and thats exactly what they will get.
This idiot believe the line of -5.5 for Arizona is a joke but says the ML of UCLA is the play.
I'm so glad I went with the correct team tonight.
hmm a 1-5 team this much of a favorate interesting
Look at the opponents that Arizona faced and how many points they put up on them. 31 against Oregon? The only team that was able to put up more then 31 on Oregon is LSU. Arizona is going to lite this team up. No doubt. If UCLA trails early, how are they going to go socre for score by only relying on there running game? UCLA has no QB. Especially one they trust which is playing for them tonight. He got benched for a reason.
Then look at how soft UCLA has had it and how they struggle to find the endzone. (San Jose State, Washington State)
My only concern is how they prepare for this game since they lost there coach during the bye. I hope they come out fired up which I expect they do and the extra days off should have helped a bit.
UCLA has no pass rush or healthy CB's. Its obvious what is about to happen tonight.
I agree with you guys. You don't see many 1-5 teams this big of favs. I'm rolling with zona in this one.
So no one that does their research could come up with UCLA as a play here? The only way to really assess how good a team is from a small sample of games against diverse opponents is to rate each team's performance in each game based on how they performed relative to their opponent's form at the time they played them.
When you do this for Arizona and UCLA, you realize that Arizona has had a schedule that's a little bit tougher, which explains the difference in their records right now, but overall these two teams are very close in power ratings going into this game (within one point of each other in my ratings). Even when you factor in homefield, laying -5.5 in this game is insane.
So now we're at 72% of the public on the Wildcats, betting into what is becoming a progressively worse line, on gameday, and the Arizona backers are all patting themselves on the back for being so sharp taking a sure thing at -5 or more when -3 was available earlier in the week for a game in which even -3 was really just a fair line with no real advantage?
Priceless
so what are you trying to say? are you taking ucla in this game? cuz if not, then quit wasting my time with your lame argument. And if so, ill see you on this thread at the end of the game and we can discuss why UCLA was a poor choice.So no one that does their research could come up with UCLA as a play here? The only way to really assess how good a team is from a small sample of games against diverse opponents is to rate each team's performance in each game based on how they performed relative to their opponent's averages.
When you do this for Arizona and UCLA, you realize that Arizona has had a schedule that's a little bit tougher, which explains the difference in their records right now, but overall these two teams are very close in power ratings going into this game (within one point of each other in my ratings). Even when you factor in homefield, laying -5.5 in this game is insane.
So now we're at 72% of the public on the Wildcats, betting into what is becoming a progressively worse line, on gameday, and the Arizona backers are all patting themselves on the back for being so sharp taking a sure thing at -5 or more when -3 was available earlier in the week for a game in which even -3 was really just a fair line with no real advantage?
Priceless
I can definitely see ways that UCLA covers this game. Duel threat backup QB (although not a major threat) that has started games and he is decent and probably will be solid against a bad Arizona defense. UCLA can run the ball with success and that will negate a few Arizona drives. Arizona with a new coach (although they hired from within), a bad D, no running game, pretty much even teams. I got the spread where it should be 1.5 - 3 from Arizona just bc it is a home game. I can see this going either way
I would say if you're going to play it, the value lies on UCLA and a bet on Arizona is a bet into a bad line. The smart play on this game is no play and the majority of the people that are so high on Arizona on Thursday night wouldn't look at this game twice if it was buried in a saturday card.
I love how an analytical approach and recognizing poor value when I see it constitutes a "lame argument". Take this play to the bank
well hopefully arizona wins by 5 exactly so those who got arizona early and those who got ucla late both win. I just think its crazy to think an underrated Arizona team goes 1-6 tonight after playing at home against a backup quarterback.
I would say if you're going to play it, the value lies on UCLA and a bet on Arizona is a bet into a bad line. The smart play on this game is no play and the majority of the people that are so high on Arizona on Thursday night wouldn't look at this game twice if it was buried in a saturday card.
I love how an analytical approach and recognizing poor value when I see it constitutes a "lame argument". Take this play to the bank
so to sum up your argument, youre not even betting on the game correct?
I wouldnt worry to much about Prince comming in at qb tonight. He threw for over 2000 yards as a freshman.
Zona rolls, Ill take a 1-5 Zona team with Foles against a 3-3UCLA team with WHO at qb? plus i got -3.5 and to me in college this is like taking a team straight up
Who the f_uck is this guy? 12 posts? F_uck off rookie.
Lol i just started with this website? real intelligent argument. having 2,717 posts on this website is probably the only thing you have going for you in your life....and if you wanna argue that, we can always pull up facebook cuz im pretty sure i live a lifestyle that is 10x better than yours.
line of the year..."my lifestyle is 10X better than yours"...
The Bruins have not won in Tucson since 2003, but that is likely to change this Thursday. Sure, UCLA will be playing without its starting quarterback, but the defense for Arizona is so bad at the present moment that it shouldn't matter. Expect a heavy dose of the UCLA ground and pound, en route to a Bruins' victory.
And why does that matter? If I'm on a side my opinion is worth something, but if I think both teams stink and people should save their money for better opportunities, my opinion is worthless?
Arizona might win tonight, but even bad bets win sometimes. Long term, they put you in the red.
What about Arizona losing to Oregon State? Oregon State is awful. I'm not sure I will play tonight, but if I do I think I'll lean towards UCLA even though they have their backup playing.
The 1-8 record for road teams head-to head is a good trend in this game and UCLA has its work cut out for them. But UCLA has an outside shot at winning this game if they can control the clock, pound the rock against zonas D and take out their will against an emotionally fragile zona team. Foles will connect for a couple TDs because UCLA just isnt capable of stopping such a prolific passing attack but they can counter that by holding onto the ball and slowing the game down. If the Bruins can get off to a fast stat in this one the better off their chances at victory are. That being said despite the trend favoring arizona to win here, I am going to side with UCLA and the motivation here. They will gameplan to control the tempo with their ground game n play keep away, and their defense will make enough stops and will break arizonas will to win this game in the 4th quarter. Edge goes to UCLA +4.5, ML +180 GL
If I'm taking anything tonight it's going to be an O/U. Like stated previously, there is no clear cut "favorite" tonight. Either team is in and just because UCLA's "backup" is playing doesn't mean a thing. He's played in other games this year as UCLA can never make up their mind at QB. Then on the other hand you have Foles who can light it up, but he can't do much about that defense of his.
The Play: None
Arizona 26 UCLA 18
those of you pointing out how bad AZ is o.......... D THEY HAVE ONLY PLAYED OK ST OREG STANFORD USC....NICK F a superior QB that is alegit pro-prospect.....most importantly Stoops was feared not repected by the players....the locker room at AZ isa loose and cool AZ by a TD easy....
Not only did the ucla Bettors back a team with no defense and pathetic qb, they took a team that has a fg kicker that is a soccer team manager and never kicked a fg in his life
Awful. Again, I'm glad I took the correct team tonight it was pretty obvious. Well to some.
This is some funny stuff!
35 to 7 Arizona up
Now you know why they were favored.
Thanks. Easy money. Off to bed.
Their defense sure looked great.
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