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TOP 5 PUBLIC PICKS...as of now
As it sits now, the public is currently heavy on:
1. Ark 93%
2. WF 90%
3. Temple 90%
4. Houston 90%
5. Nebraska 89%
and close...
6. K State 89%
7. VT 88%
8. Clemson 87%
9. N. ill 86%
10. BC 86%
Source: Thespread.com
Just Some food for thought.
My initial take: The books did their job with the lines on top 10s this week. For the last 4 weeks, Wisc, Stan, LSU, Bama, and Boise have dominated these rankings.
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What is a "public" pick and how is it different from another pick. WF and ark are two of the most popular plays around here this week.
WF and ARK do seem to be hot picks around SBRland this week.
what makes them top "public" picks is that a vast majority of the betting public is on the one side. all picks get bet on by the "public", but some games get much more one sided action, which get them onto this list.
Very interesting. Will follow how they made out.
How did last week's public NCAA picks make out?
Record?
I'm not sure this is a good way to determine who you bet on this year....or at least so far this year. Here are some public bets from last week:
Ok St -7 (84%) - Ok St 38 Texas 26
Clemson -9 (83%) - Clemson 56 Maryland 45
Temple -22 (84%) - Temple 34 Buffalo 0
Stanford -20 (81%) - Stanford 44 Wash St 14
FSU -12 (80%) - FSU 41 Duke 16
So the top public play wents 5 - 0 last week. Another bloodbath for the books.
Blindly fading or tailing this list is not the idea. It is just information that interests me...and perhaps others as well.
The public is getting more and more sharp every year .. Its all about networking
It is interesting information. In the past, it seemed to be more help in determining winners than it has been this year. The only problem with the reports is that you cannot see the amounts that were wagered on each of the teams, only the total number of bets.
Just take the public favs and put them into teasers , teasers ...thats money ..take those 5 and put them in a 13 point teaser right now.....thats some funny money sonny..10/22/2011 12:30 PM College Football 321 Wake Forest* +10 vs Duke
10/22/2011 12:20 PM College Football 323 Arkansas* -2 vs Mississippi
10/22/2011 3:30 PM College Football 347 Temple* -1 vs Bowling Green
10/22/2011 3:30 PM College Football 357 Nebraska* -11½ vs Minnesota U
10/22/2011 4:30 PM College Football 374 Houston U* -9½ vs Marshall yeah yeah that looks like money
In order the top 5 as far as the $ amount goes
Wisconsin
Oklahoma State
Auburn
Kansas State
Arkansas
thanks, pauly. great stuff.
The teaser looks good, house.
Just for clarification, the "public" play should refer to the total number of bets on a side as opposed to how much are on those bets.
There's always this obsession with "public" vs. "sharps" which is meaningless. Good handicapping is good handicapping, and that is what wins. Having said that, however, I will say that public plays (typically favorites) go on runs and crush the books, then the next think you know, they get crushed. Early NFL season last year was a great example. From weeks 3-8 the books killed and then from 9 on out they got absolutely smushed
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Polly,thats my 13 pt teaser already,but instead of Auburn,I have WV....and this is close also ..
CFB - [309] WEST VIRGINIA -1-110 (B+13)
CFB - [323] ARKANSAS -2½-110 (B+13)
CFB - [353] OKLAHOMA ST +6-105 (B+13)
CFB - [363] KANSAS ST +2-110 (B+13)
To Win: 640.00/400.00 I know its a little juice,but I feel good about it.
Which makes me wonder if the consensus info is even factual because by this years consensus record the books have been taking it up the ass like no other year for sure or HAVE THEY???????Originally Posted by House
The public is getting more and more sharp every year .. Its all about networking
i have noticed also the time of day for these games and the success. Early in the day like 12:00 tips usually dont do well with heavy public money but during afternoon and night you stand a better chance. Dont as me the logic but something that i have noticed over the years.
Thank you.
I'd be careful going against the books in college football for much longer.
A major correction is not only likely, but virtually inevitable.
That's interesting as I always found it to be the opposite. I'm often almost afraid to be on any of the late night games even if I like a side because those always seem to be the games where crazy shit happens. Like the books know that anyone who is down from the day will be chasing...
I'm trying hard to figure out why BC is getting a lot of love
The public plays will even out in time. They always do, fellas. Bookies make the $$$$ like they do for a reason.
CHAS ...thats why you tease them 13 pt 4 gamers right now,and bank it....
Who cares if the public has been winning. If you see a line you like, take it. I feel like way too many people screw themselves by over thinking the system and thinking every game must be a trap. College football is not scripted so no matter what the line is you can always win or lose. There is no advantage in guessing the books are trying to trap people. It has been evident this year that the public favorites have been winning mostly because they are good plays.
Im not trying to bash anyone. I know everyone has their strategies and superstitions but I just don't buy looking into all of the books trying to catch up and make money back. These lines are just too appetizing.
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there is an advantage in guessing the books are trying to trap people. but you are very correct that this is not in every game. televised games; i think they would develop a strong lean on a pick make the other side "too good to be true" generous "gift" odds.
Then later even when people start hitting this line hard because of its "too good to be true factor", it will not become less favorable but in some cases even become even more favorable.
it is prudent to want no part of that- and not realizing otherwise would just make someone uninformed, not stupid. You shouldnt take the other side of a trap trying to trap the trap, you should stay far away from it.
RJ Bell
"Talk about CFB teams dominating is really Top 10 teams only. Non-Top 10 teams laying 20 pts or more are 48-46 ATS on season."
all it means is the number of bets that are made on a team. has nothing to do with actual $$ values bet. you can see 80% on the favorite yet the large underdog plays by "sharps" can equal out the action.
this whole logic that "books will get it back" has no basis. no one has an idea of actual dollar values wagered unless your paying for some service that has that data.
Last edited by Dexter; 10-20-11 at 06:25 PM.
Thank you.
you just went up 5 notches in my book $Green
I'm surprised you ever doubted me ... come on man, I don't win on "luck" (don't believe in it anyway)
Thank you.
you just went up 5 notches in my book $Green
Except that the books have limitations as to how far they can skew lines. It just doesn't pay to let a few weeks of games modify your business plan that's been effective for years. I think it's much more likely that the remaining unbeatens get picked off one here, one there. No major disaster.
I'm not saying these teams will lose SU, but I doubt they keep covering ATS at a 70-80% clip.
What is the Wisconsin side looking like? Michigan St. seems like a perfect contrarian play tonight.
Glitch gave TheBetBuysDanK 3 SBR Point(s) for this post.
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