1. #1
    Machine Choice
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    Machine Choice: Thursday Night Football

    MACHINE CHOICE FOOTBALL: 23-10
    Current Win Streak: 10-0

    I couldn't settle on a side with the points for either game, so I've cooked up a 2-team ML parlay that I feel very confident about.

    In the UCF game, I feel that UCF winning SU is a lock based upon their defense and UAB's abysmal offense. My models show UCF winning by 16, so I couldn't find value in the spread. IF UCF doesn't win SU then I deserve to lose my bet. The more interesting game is...

    Arizona/UCLA. If Breuhaut started for UCLA I'd predict a 3-point Arizona win at home. But he's not starting due to injury, and Prince is. So that points in UA's favor, and sure enough the line sits at -4. Bottom line, just like the UCF game, the line appears to me to be very sharp. I am going to take Arizona on the ML in what I think will be a close game. UCLA with their god-awful defense is not going to blow out Arizona. Criner has now been listed as good to go, and Foles is going to eat UCLA's lunch through the air. Arizona's loss to Oregon State was flukey due to four turnovers, including two uncharacteristic INT's by Foles. Now that Stoops has been fired, I think UA is going to be loose, relaxed with a nothing-to-lose, go for broke mentality. In their home stadium I look for them to get their second win of the season, especially facing the injury-prone, fumble-prone, INT-prone Prince at QB for UCLA. On paper UA's defense looks horrible, but consider that they have faced 3 of the top 5 offenses in the nation (Stanford, Oklahoma State, Oregon). UCLA does not compare.

    2-team ML Parlay: UCF/ARIZONA
    $1,142 to win $877 (-128)
    Last edited by Machine Choice; 10-19-11 at 09:48 PM.

  2. #2
    Wrestler31
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    taking this 100%. good look!

  3. #3
    ram1502
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    I like UCF/UCLA parlay better.....1.9:1 but good luck machine. Stay on fire...

  4. #4
    Tanko
    Slow roll
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    Damn. You are lit... Gotta go with this one.

  5. #5
    SilverTongueFox
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    Machine - local doesn't have ML for heavy favs. What do you think about 6.5 tease:
    UCF -9.5
    Zona +2.5
    (-120)

  6. #6
    ddavidson1173
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    So is 1142 your next step on the heavens gate?

  7. #7
    Machine Choice
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    Quote Originally Posted by SilverTongueFox View Post
    Machine - local doesn't have ML for heavy favs. What do you think about 6.5 tease:
    UCF -9.5
    Zona +2.5
    (-120)
    Looks good to me.

  8. #8
    rtiet1
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    hmmmm

  9. #9
    Machine Choice
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    Quote Originally Posted by SilverTongueFox View Post
    Machine - local doesn't have ML for heavy favs. What do you think about 6.5 tease:
    UCF -9.5
    Zona +2.5
    (-120)
    But just so you know, I have played teasers in the past but I don't like them. If you're asking what I would personally do if it was my money, I wouldn't play this teaser. I should have made that clear

  10. #10
    Machine Choice
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    I don't expect to get alot of support for this play, and I understand that. People are skeptical of parlays, and they should be! People are skeptical of backing a 1-win team, and they should be. I wouldn't blame anyone for saying "pass." But just remember: I have over $1K on this. I don't take chances with money that large. I fully expect to be counting cash tomorrow at midnight.
    Last edited by Machine Choice; 10-19-11 at 09:48 PM.

  11. #11
    Primetime2125
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    Couldn't agree with you more. May hop on the train with you if there's room.

    GL!!!

  12. #12
    Machine Choice
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    I stand corrected. Arizona has beaten Northern Arizona this year. I edited my write-up. I don't factor FCS wins into my handicapping, but maybe in this case I should have. Northern Arizona is 5-1 and ranked higher in the computer rankings than Syracuse, Air Force, and NC State. So this is even more ammunition for backing Arizona IMO.

  13. #13
    Elysee26
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    Ucla

    I'm a SEC guy but I've followed AZ and was sad to see Stoops fail, which he did. But regarding UCLA, nothing would thrill me more than to see NewHouseAL get schooled. If you check out their media guide they "promote" their 2009 win against Tennessee with the incredible tag "the Bruins registered a huge win vs. the University of TN on the road..." This is a TN team that finished 7-6 in Kiffin's only year at the helm. If that is all you have to crow about.......just shut up. Going with you Machine on this one with a grudge.

  14. #14
    ddavidson1173
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    My $17.72 1/11th bankroll bet is with you bro. Knocking on wood and hopefully heavens door.

  15. #15
    TheBetBuysDanK
    Stackin'
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    Placed this bet last night. Stoked to see you select it for this. I may even DD. My only concern is that there is no way of knowing which U of A team shows up. Still ucla is rubbish.

    Bol to all on this play!

    Machine, youre a hero.

  16. #16
    dcmoney52
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    1st half UCF $ over for the game

    ucf -9 1st half and over 45/5 parlay of the day!

  17. #17
    hubie69
    I am JJs bookie
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    Quote Originally Posted by Machine Choice View Post
    I don't expect to get alot of support for this play, and I understand that. People are skeptical of parlays, and they should be! People are skeptical of backing a 1-win team, and they should be. I wouldn't blame anyone for saying "pass." But just remember: I have over $1K on this. I don't take chances with money that large. I fully expect to be counting cash tomorrow at midnight.
    Get it Machine! Just wanted to say thanks for the pics, you've been on fire lately!

  18. #18
    AceKingHigh
    Going for the Win!
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    gooing with you machine good luck!

  19. #19
    mp5070
    The Michael Scott Company
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  20. #20
    cesar8000
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    i cant get the moneyline for ucf should i still take them at -16.5.....do you guys think it will go over

  21. #21
    jakeloftin2186
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    if you where to take the over/under in both games what would you

  22. #22
    cesar8000
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    arizona over for sure...uab game dont know

  23. #23
    Machine Choice
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    Predicted Scores:

    UCF 28
    UAB 12

    Arizona 34
    UCLA 28

  24. #24
    Machine Choice
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    I feel that these are also great bets, for anyone who wants to bet the World Series instead:

    Cardinals ML (this is what I would bet tonight if there was no football)
    Cardinals / Rangers under 8

  25. #25
    asdfghasdfgh
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    Best of luck man. I'm probably playing a teaser of the UCF/UAB UNDER 53 and Arizona +3. I don't normally like teasing across zero, but I'm an action junkie and don't like any other side for tonight's games. Keep killing it bro.

  26. #26
    WinningIsKeY
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    GL i used it to hedge my teaser ( UAB -9 1/2 & UCLA + 11)

  27. #27
    ddavidson1173
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    The Zona line was -180 at my book last night and is -200 now. Does that mean we're on to something?

  28. #28
    WinningIsKeY
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    Quote Originally Posted by ddavidson1173 View Post
    The Zona line was -180 at my book last night and is -200 now. Does that mean we're on to something?
    i think so i say a 35- 31 ARI

  29. #29
    Dime Time
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    I am taking UCLA tonight, they will win outright and I love the over for the parlay. GL

  30. #30
    michiganct
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    UCF has done nothing to warrant them to win by 16, let alone on the road.

  31. #31
    riffraff24
    ...and out come the wolves
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    Hey Machine - I locked in your College Football parlay pick on my investment account on 5dimes. I also wanted to make the same play with my entertainment account on Bodog, but as of right now they don't have the CFU Moneyline open. If they don't open one before game time; do you think an Arizona/Cards ML parlay is a good look? Thanks again and good luck today!!

  32. #32
    killersweet
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    that was a sick loss by ucf, unreal

  33. #33
    Betn247
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    Quote Originally Posted by Machine Choice View Post
    I don't expect to get alot of support for this play, and I understand that. People are skeptical of parlays, and they should be! People are skeptical of backing a 1-win team, and they should be. I wouldn't blame anyone for saying "pass." But just remember: I have over $1K on this. I don't take chances with money that large. I fully expect to be counting cash tomorrow at midnight.
    tough loss.....was on uab +17.5 seeing as how they covered the last few games......good thing is you got the rest of the weekend to get em back....keep your head up you

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