My first "my plays" thread. My Non-Saturday Plays!
Alright guys. I have been handicapping for about 4 years now. I'm finally doing it with a much more professional approach, and analyzing every game I do in depth. I am finally achieving a fairly good record and I want to pass it on to the rest of you, as well as keep a track record of my picks. I do NFL and CFB, but I will try to keep the results separate.
I want to start by letting you all know the plays I am jumping on for the week games through Friday. I won my pick tonight on Ark St, but I am not counting it because it was not posted.
Here goes...
UCF -14 ---------- 1 unit play
My simulator shows a high probability UCF obliterates UAB. Also, there are a few VERY good trends (one trend has gone 28-4) favoring UCF to cover.
Arizona/UCLA UNDER 61.5 ----------- 3 unit play
Arizona is a slow starting team. This is the highest totals that UCLA has seen this year, and the 3rd highest Arizona has seen. The under has hit 58-24 since 1992 when there is a team involved with 5 straight up losses in a row.
Rutgers/Louisville OVER 39.5 --------- 1 unit play
This is the lowest totals that either of these two teams have seen this year. The trends all point to this game going over.
I am staying away from the Syracuse/W.Va. game. Tons of trends point to 'cuse covering, but I don't trust them, especially after losing to Rutgers at home.
FYI Cuse is gonna get smoked, their homefield advantage is probably one of the worst in college, the team doesn't play much better at home then they do on the road, and WVU is the only legitimate football team in the Big East. Cuse struggled against Rutgers, Wake Forest, and should have lost to Toledo all at home, and those teams aren't even close to as good as WVU is both offensively and defensively. Look for the cuse score to be closer to the USC-Cuse game than any other big east games that Cuse has already played. I think that 14 points is a gift, this one should be at least a 17-21 point spread. I"m sure the line will move as we come closer to game time probably will get somewhere like 15-16.
I dont trust syracuse/W.Va. The system I use is all over the place on this game. Some indicators point strongly to 'cuse covering, while others point strongly to W.Va. The game is played AT syracuse, and I see much better plays on the board this week.
This Arizona/UCLA is my favorite play of the non-saturday games.
I caught the Auburn line before honeybadger brought the line down, AND teased it to give me some room. Auburn will score a couple of times and when you look at the history of the game between these two, I had to jump on it.
Temple is an obvious bet (EVERYTHING points to them covering the spread) and I needed my second most solid pick on the backside of this teaser.
Thanks! Its a tossup right now on if these picks will hit or not. UCF needs to get separation, and Arizona/UCLA scares me as far as the lack of defense... lets see if the trends hold up!
I hate Auburn.They looked pathetic against Florida. LSU 3 backups are just as good as Floridas starters. LSU will roll but who knows if it will be 21 or 31
I hear you Brutus, and I am an LSU fan, but looking at the history of all of the games between these two teams... I can easily see a 28 point spread covering.
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My first "my plays" thread. My Non-Saturday Plays!
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