[brahmabull117]

I don't get it



I'm looking at what seems to be a near even matchup (maybe 3 points given to notre dame because of homefield advantage) and USC is getting 9 points in this game???




wtf???

[MartinBlank]

What makes you think they are "even"? I will actually try and debate a game with you.

Arizona State rolled USC by 20+, and Arizona put up 41 on USC. Notre Dame's 2 losses can be explained pretty easily---turnovers. They dominated Michigan for 45 minutes before imploding, and they beat down Michigan State, crushed a Purdue team that lost 23-18 to Penn State, and they destroyed Air Force.

No one has stopped ND----except for themselves.

USC will be without Mark Tyler, and Dillon Baxter has taken a leave. USC is down to a 5'7 170 lb running back, whose own coach questioned whether he could actually finish a game.

USC is painfully thin on their OL-----and you can criticize ND for a lot of things this year---but they are physical. They beat up Michigan State.

Add to the fact, that ND has had 2 weeks to prepare----it is the first night game at ND since 1990-----

I think ND could very well win this game by 14-17 points. That wouldn't surprise me at all. The only reason I hesitate to play it is because the number is right in that "back door" neighborhood-----ND leading by 14 late----USC gets the ball with 2-3 mins left, and scores within the final minute to get the cover.

The number opened at 7.5---and is now at 8.5/9. Something is up.

[brahmabull117]

What makes you think they are "even"? I will actually try and debate a game with you. Arizona State rolled USC by 20+, and Arizona put up 41 on USC. Notre Dame's 2 losses can be explained pretty easily---turnovers. They dominated Michigan for 45 minutes before imploding, and they beat down Michigan State, crushed a Purdue team that lost 23-18 to Penn State, and they destroyed Air Force. No one has stopped ND----except for themselves. USC will be without Mark Tyler, and Dillon Baxter has taken a leave. USC is down to a 5'7 170 lb running back, whose own coach questioned whether he could actually finish a game. USC is painfully thin on their OL-----and you can criticize ND for a lot of things this year---but they are physical. They beat up Michigan State. Add to the fact, that ND has had 2 weeks to prepare----it is the first night game at ND since 1990----- I think ND could very well win this game by 14-17 points. That wouldn't surprise me at all. The only reason I hesitate to play it is because the number is right in that "back door" neighborhood-----ND leading by 14 late----USC gets the ball with 2-3 mins left, and scores within the final minute to get the cover. The number opened at 7.5---and is now at 8.5/9. Something is up.

1)Notre Dame has played a close game or lost SU to 3 of it's 4 decent opponents that it has played this year (USF, Pitt, Michigan, Mich St)


2)Notre Dame hasn't beaten USC by more than 7 points since about 1930. This is usually a tough close Rivalry game


3)USC's blowout against ASU was a bit of an anamoly - USC has only lost 3 games heading back to last season by more than 10 points


4)The running game is irrelevant because USC wins games by throwing the ball a bunch anyways

[MartinBlank]

1)Notre Dame has played a close game or lost SU to 3 of it's 4 decent opponents that it has played this year (USF, Pitt, Michigan, Mich St)


2)Notre Dame hasn't beaten USC by more than 7 points since about 1930. This is usually a tough close Rivalry game


3)USC's blowout against ASU was a bit of an anamoly - USC has only lost 3 games heading back to last season by more than 10 points


4)The running game is irrelevant because USC wins games by throwing the ball a bunch anyways

This is what drives me insane about your posts/threads. When you lock into a thought, you are incapable of seeing or understanding the other side.

You tell me that ND had 4 close games--but you have decided to ignore the fact that USC struggled against two awful teams----Minnesota and Arizona.

I have no idea why you would bet money on Lane Kiffin. This is not Pete Carroll's USC teams---

Kelly outcoached Kiffin so badly last year it wasn't even funny----he took a freshman QB in Rees and went into the LA Coliseum and beat USC-----and Kelly did it with a team that was missing 5 starters.

I really can't see USC winning this game, and I think they are going to struggle to keep it close.

[brahmabull117]

This is what drives me insane about your posts/threads. When you lock into a thought, you are incapable of seeing or understanding the other side. .

not true, I never said this was a stone cold lock. I'm still debating on what plays to make for the week actually



notre dame to me just doesn't seem like a team that can consistently blowout anybody. You say they beat themselves in the USF game, but they got outgained by 80 yards against MSU and only won by 17 because a lot of breaks went their way. They lost to michigan because of absolutely terrible secondary play and were lucky to win by 3 on the road against pittburg


the thing that scares me in this game is the defensive play for USC. Their secondary has been horrible recently. I think USC will score 20-30 points in this game but can they hold ND to less than 35 to lock up a close game at least. We'll see

[antifoil]

ND is considered by bookmakers to be a top 15 team. USC is considered by them to be in the high 30s to low 40s.

turnovers are seemingly random so they are given little weight when looking at games as do records. it is possible that they get high enough it becomes a pattern. a turnover diff of -11 or so.

yards per play is a better predictor of points scored than actually points scored in a game.

[antifoil]

you also have to remove strength of schedule from the statistical data by normalizing the information. this allows you to see the information on a even playing field as if each team is playing an equal average opponent.

[brahmabull117]

ND is considered by bookmakers to be a top 15 team.

this is the part that baffles me



ND Hasn't played like a top 15 team in about a decade, why do they keep getting so much love from bookmakers??

[antifoil]

they are if you look at yard per play and yards per play allowed both offensively and defensively. again the score to previous games are not predictive to future scores because there are random factors in every game that can change the outcome. most of which is not predictable toward the future and not likely to occur in the future.

[sandman0713]

usc and zona state was a really even matchup if you watched it...turnovers later in the game and it just kind of got away from usc. not saying they are the play here, but the zona state score is misleading imo if you didn't watch the entire game. that being said, no way would i bet against notre dame here...and no way i lay that many points in a game that always seems to be close. not even a consideration except maybe a total for me...and the total may be way low btw.

[HoulihansTX]

Brahma is a few thousand post in, and poster are still trying to talk handicapping with him?

I understand the randomness of TO's, and the importance of YPP... nevertheless the most important factor in this game is Lane Kiffin vs Brian Kelly. David and Goliath thinks this a mismatch of epic proportions.

[No coincidences]

USC is not in any way, shape or form "even" with Notre Dame.

[TroyGreen]

Notre Dame fans which are everywhere will bet ND to cover on this one. 9 points is allot of points for a decent USC team with good speed. This is a game to take a look at IMO.

One poster brought up a good point about Tyler being out. The fact that Kiffin does not have a stable of backs in Los Angeles is a joke. Black Mamba did a smart thing by going to Oregon.

[Demonata]

Notre Dame is on a roll and after they beat Notre Dame they will be ranked in the top 25 again. No way this wont cover.

[RED]

this is the part that baffles me



ND Hasn't played like a top 15 team in about a decade, why do they keep getting so much love from bookmakers??

Because they are a team that the public loves to play on

[Ice House]

I hate notre dame but i think they cover here.

[MartinBlank]

Brahma is a few thousand post in, and poster are still trying to talk handicapping with him?

I understand the randomness of TO's, and the importance of YPP... nevertheless the most important factor in this game is Lane Kiffin vs Brian Kelly. David and Goliath thinks this a mismatch of epic proportions.

This.

[thebestthereis]

Lane Queefin is worth -9 points

[MartinBlank]

I need someone to explain to me how Kiffin got hired by Oakland, Tennessee, and USC.

And he's been horrible at all three places.

[BernardMadoff]

2)Notre Dame hasn't beaten USC by more than 7 points since about 1930. This is usually a tough close Rivalry game

Misinformation.

[big0mar]

Brahma still doesn't understand market efficiency.

If someone is citing a historical SU or ATS spread record in their logic for taking a position, they most likely don't know what they are doing.