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Week 7 Spladle08 Write ups
Please give me suggestions on ones I may be overlooking, I plan on doing write ups on all these and will probably post around 3pm
Lines that caught my eye off the bat include...
Baylor/A&M OV
Michigan (+3)
Cincinnati -14.5
Georgia Tech -8
OkieSt -8 or Over
Clemson -8.5
Northwestern +6
Stanford -20
OU/KS OV
USU -4
ASU/Oregon OV
I'm with you on all the lines that are out so far, except Northwestern (no play for me). I can't comment too much with the overs, but would caution you with the OU/KS and ASU/Oregon lines. Again, we'll have to see what they come out with. I'm assuming 60-70 for both.
yeah I assumed ~65-70 for OU and ~61-63.5 for Oregon. I haven't done any research (we are at the "main pay-zone" drilling this oil-well and Im supposed to be locked into that), just thought they could be good lines, I see ASU getting to 30 and Oregon more, bet also hinges on L. James status, if he doesn't play I might take ASU +15 thats a lot of points to a good team, may not play it. For the Kansas game, I think they are good for 21+ at home and lord knows they will allow their typical 45+, so yeah I'd be hard pressed not to bet the over anything less than 70. I will obviously do research today for 3 or 4 hours and post my actual plays. Are there any other you would suggest to replace these?
Oh yeah and always enjoy your stuff, thanks for all the quality write ups Fawkes
You are very welcome and thank you for the complimentSince you asked, I'm doing some research into my dogs for this week. So far checking out Rice over Marshall and Purdue over Penn State. The second one is going to take a lot more work though. A couple leans: Ball State @ Ohio -14 and Colorado @ Washington -14.
Edit: A little more research looks like my next write up will likely be USF -6.5 @ UConn.
Last edited by guy Fawkes; 10-10-11 at 05:30 AM.
I like your plays, im playing mostly the same. I thought about Cincinatti, but 14.5 is too much for me so Im hoping itll move to 13.5. Clemson does not have Taj Boyd, count me out of this one for sure. Love Dabo, but you have to assume this backup won't match Taj
Additional plays I need your opinion on!!!!
Toledo -8.5 vs Bowling Green ...this a joke?
Alabama -25.5 vs Misissippi ...Alabama has the #1 defense in the country, and the passin game was clicking...
Temple -20 vs Buffalo 20 is a ton of points, but games with Temple in control have ended in blowouts
Washington -14 vs Colorado ...forget the smash by Stanford, CU coach suspended 4 players for the year without saying why? We might be looking at this guys last chance at head coach...
got a late start after lunch, girlfriend just got a big commission check and lunch was all about her so just starting now, guessing it will take me a few hours, I'll get em all done Jake. Thanks for the post.
Word, take care of your girl. Ill be here all night, haha
Thanks. Esp looking forward to your thoughts on Okie State. I bought half a pount to -7 and just pounded it.
I just wrote the OKIE STATE one and convinced myself its going to be a blowout.... "OSU is allowing ~27points per game so don’t expect a complete shut out, but they are 7-0 ATS over the last 3 seasons as road favorites and I don’t expect that to change here, they will put up their normal 45+ and I think texas will make it to the high 20’s possibly 30’s to make it a little more respectable game but in the end too much Weeden+Blackmon. 48-28 final. I like the Over here as well as long as its 63.5 or less. (which it will be). 4**** for each pick" Thats basically the just of that article. Im only through 5 and its already 3pm gotta go to work at 5 but I will get it done... I better lay off the brew here shortly.
All I got done to this point:
Early reads on games, will adjust read as random pertinent info comes out, but this is what I feel so far, I have a few more to semi-review tonight and fix typos, sorry in advance for all of them but I have to go to work.
Baylor/A&M OV Anything less than 75**** (came out @ 75)
if somehow this line is over 75 I will start to be a little concerned but it won’t be. Baylor has looked unstoppable on offense, reaching a season low 35points against a hard-nosed Kstate team in a less than impressive RG3 outing. I thought A&M actually had a pretty salty defense after 2 good first halfs against Ark and OSU, and chalked up their losses to getting complacent and not knowing how to play with the lead, after watching Texas Tech put 543yrd on them in a 45-40 loss, I have decided they simply aren’t very good on defense. True they have played prolific offenses 3 weeks in a row but…they have also given up an average of 530 yd/gm over that stint, look for Baylor to score early and often and TA&M to do the same, the game is @ A&M and with 2 losses followed by a close call, look for them to try to run up the score on a Baylor team they should feel superior to (I also think they want to try to make themselves look good since their move to the SEC has them in the spotlight, not to mention I actually do feel they are a team who is far superior than their ranking). By the numbers: PF/Against TA&M: 39.0 / 26.6, Baylor: 47.6 / 28.2, Their combined record Over/Under is 7-3, and contradictory stat of the day is: 3 of 3 games in this series played @ A&M have gone UNDER THE TOTAL since 1992. I think this is simply due to the fact that Baylor is usually the doormat, and A&M struggled there for a while. Look for the over; I give it a 4star play, very solid.
Michigan (+3) **
Haven’t looked this up yet but it already scares me, MSU is usually a team I ride until the wheels fall off but this year D-Rob has done nothing but make me money, lets dive in.
Michigan is averaging 38.0 / 12.5, 6-0 Straight up and 5-1 ATS with their lone non-cover being against Eastern Mich in a 31-3 walk in the park. While MSU is a similar, 28.0 / 10.2, 4-1 straight up 3-2 ATS, with their non covers coming against, Youngstown state in a 28-6 win and ND in a 13-31 drubbing. Ok Im looking at offensive and defensive stats and it is an absolute wash. IMO, Michigan doesn’t play much defense on the road, but obviously their offense makes up for it, and Sparty has amazing defensive numbers but how much of that can be attributed to playing powder puffs through the first half of the season, and an Ohio State team that was struggling to find their offensive identity? The only decent offense they played was ND who hung 31 on them in a blowout. Hmmm don’t get me wrong, I like Cousins and I acknowledge Sparty winning the last 3 in the series including a 34-17 romp last year, but I can’t stress enough that HOKE is a great coach and has this team focusing more on defense and less on shoot-out style football, in addition this is a Rivalry game and a 4 game winning streak in a rivalry isn’t seen all too often, it becomes more of a spanking at that point with not much emphasis put on the game. I was ready to deem Mich the winner but I looked at rushing/passing yards allowed at home and MSU just looks scary, Im going to chalk this up the the low quality opponents they have played and deem Michigan the winner stealing this one @ something like 24-17. Only 2**
Side-Note: after last week’s line/result, I feel like the odds makers are playing to the idea that Mich is still simply a shoot-out football club and a lot of people (including people on this board) still think they are going to give up 45+ a game, NW didn’t stand a chance, and I think with the points this is a no-brainer, let’s hope I’m right.
Cincinnati -14.5 Editing this to a 1* pick, as the line is up to -17 (I wont play this game)
In the Brian K. days I rode these guys hard but have been off the wagon for awhile now (NCST is the first time I played them in awhile.) WOW Cincy is averaging 45.0 / 16.6 while Louisville is averaging 16.4 / 16.2 that alone is a great stat, Cincy is 4-1 ATS while Lville is 2-3. Diving a little deeper into the numbers, shows hmmm. Well I think Louisville’s defensive numbers are inflated with a horrible first 5 games, but they did hold UNC to only 14 points on 264yrds of total offense, hmmm it’s really hard not to pick Cincy here but let me look a little deeper. Last year Cincy won (by 8) with a very similar team against a bit more dynamic (Offensively) Louisville team @ Lville (where they put up 35points), this game could be close but I just don’t see it, Collaros has the offense firing on all cylinders, and Lville is coming off a hard fought contest @ UNC (I’m trying not to put much stock in this game as they are a huge up and down team and now travels to Cincy, its like If you are going to say wow they played UNC close do you also need to say wow they lost to Marshall and FIU?) look for this to be a 3 score game. Side-notes: CINCINNATI is 2-0 against the spread versus LOUISVILLE over the last 3 seasons and random fact only 6 of 27 games in October for Cincy have gone over since 92’. Not 100% sold on the 2touchdown spread but 85% for sure, 1 Star pick.
Georgia Tech -8***
jumped on the bandwagon after week 1 but debating jumping off after a near-burn against NCST and an actual burn against Maryland, they are playing my former college I did not graduate from (loser) so lets see what I can come across at a glance. Scoring GaTech 46.5 / 24.2; Virginia 27.2 / 22.4; GaTech is 4-1 ATS while Virginia is 1-4 (encouraging). Defenses look similar while offense is obviously one sided. They both played UNC with Georgia sneaking out a 7 point win and UVA an 11pt loss. Last weeks 1pt win over a very poor Idaho team concerns me for UVA and obviously GaTech will look to rebound after a close call vs a mediocre (definitely under-rated) Maryland team. Virginia has played almost every team they’ve played close but I don’t see that coming into play here, they had similar numbers last year coming in against a much less impressive Gatech team which had already suffered 2 losses, and still lost by 12pts, I look for a similar effort here not giving up a million but not being able to keep up with the pace. I’ll throw out a score like 38-21 here. I think @8pts this line is a steal. 3 stars.
OkieSt -8 or Over (**** to both) (over is @ 64.5)
Who cares what the line is. Well I guess the spread matters. Okie State is Okie State on offense, I mean they score, and that’s that. I don’t think the freshman QB’s of Texas will be able to keep up with the nasty pace, lets look at the last 3yrs and see what we can find. 2010: OSU wins 33-16, 2009: #3 texas romps 41-14 behind a strong D, en route to a national title game; 2008: #1 ranked texas win 28-24 in a barn burner, wow not what I expected to see… hmmm Anyways Case is not Colt (yet) and Jaxon Shipley is not Jordan Shipley (yet). OU just murdered Texas and their confidence has to be shaky. Their record stands where it should after the opponents they have played, and they will add another loss this weekend. They aren’t a bad team but the pressure to keep up with a high powered offense will prove to much for these young QB’s. OSU is allowing ~27points per game so don’t expect a complete shut out, but they are 7-0 ATS over the last 3 seasons as road favorites and I don’t expect that to change here, they will put up their normal 45+ and I think texas will make it to the high 20’s possibly 30’s to make it a little more respectable game but in the end too much Weeden+Blackmon. 48-28 final. I like the Over here as well as long as its 63.5 or less. (which it will be). 4**** for each pick (just saw 4 more weird lines that suggest an OSU cover but im not gonna waste your time with them, they ranged from a 10-0 record ATS as a 3.5-10pt fav, to 5-1 ATS on games played on grass… anyways they will cover)
Clemson -8.5****
Oh Clemson, you won me a boatload vs VaTech but I doubted you against BC… hmmm let’s check out this weird Maryland team. Maryland is allowing 22.8 / 24.6, while Clemson is sporting a nice 35.0 / 19.5, Clemson is also 5-1 ATS while Maryland is 2-3, hmmm 10 of 11 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL since 1992 that’s a sexy stat but we are on the spread here so let’s keep looking. I have the spread at 8.5 (last time I checked) and the only teams to keep it that close were Wofford and FSU, meh. In Marylands 3 losses they have lost to WVU by 6, Temple by 31, and GaTech by 5, throw out that Temple game and you aren’t looking at a completely terrible team. No big stats here just the simple fact that if Boyd plays this line is going to move in the opposite direction, I just saw it can be found as low as 7 and I think anyone should take it at 7, the offense is complete and the defense isn’t terrible by any means. The game is @ Maryland but I don’t think that changes much, With Boyd on the field I think we see a 17+ victory with him off it may be less than 7, I say take a gamble and lock it in as low as you can find it now, Clemson pasted them last year 31-7 and being a much better team this year combined with Maryland struggling a bit more than last, if you can get Clemson as a touchdown favorite, you can’t go wrong. Maybe this will help “Clemson quarterback Tajh Boyd, who suffered a hip injury in Saturday's win over Boston College, has been upgraded to probable for the Maryland game, the school announced on Sunday.”
“Tajh was feeling much better today,” coach Dabo Swinney said on his weekly Sunday teleconference. “We really expect him to be back at practice full speed on Tuesday and be ready to play against Maryland.” OK, I hate over-rating picks but this has to be 4star I can’t deny it.
Northwestern +6****
I hate betting against my horse, and I love betting for IOWA, I haven’t missed on NW yet and hopefully I’m right this week. This isn’t a good Iowa team, take away a miracle 4th quarter vs Pitt and we are talking about a 2-3 team with the wins coming against Louisinana Monroe and Tennessee Tech. Conversely Northwestern has looked lack luster, losing their last 3 against a not-so-good Army team, The Pretenders-Illinois, and a good team in Michigan. The only trouncing came at the hands of Michigan and rightly so. Everyone over-valued Persa, he doesn’t play defense and the defense didn’t hold up just like I said. With that being said, he does play offense and Iowa has looked vulnerable. Their defensive stats don’t look horrid but that’s LARGELY due to their schedule. Behind Persa NW should win this game outright, if you bet them last week against MICH you should have no-problem betting them in this spot, I personally will probably throw 2 bills on them straight up and probably add them to a 3teamer + the points, NW could easily be 4-1 right now, so don’t sleep on them, do the looking yourself but Iowa is average at best and their offense is less than impressive and very predictable, relying heavily on Coker getting something going. They don’t have Stanzi and are going to have trouble scoring, Take NW + the points all day… I want to call this a lock but I will give it 4 stars just in case. ****
Stanford -20 LOCKTOWN.WIN@easyspreads.com
Stanford has won 10 of their last 11 by 25+ is that enough?
Im going to start by saying I love WashST just like betting on em, the way they play, QB, etc etc. But when your big win for the year is beating Colorado by 4, meh red-flag here, they then lost to UCLA by 3 (both teams Stanford trounced) but let’s look at the facts. Stanford is 5-0 ATS while Wash is 4-1, Stanford is averaging 46/10 while WashingtonSt is going 40/25. Hmmm just for fun, we all already know the Card will roll but just for funzies…NOTE: Prince went 8/13 for 173yrds and 2tds for UCLA, SDSU’s QB went 21/37 273yrds and 2TD’s, and Colorado’s Ace went 15/23 175yrds and 2tds, meh, I think LUCK being luck will murder regardless, but the Stanford run will flourish. WashSt gave up 161-CO, 170-UCLA, and 227-SDSU. I think Washington State makes it to 20pts but Stanford hangs 48 on em and continues the covering streak go go go. LOCK IT UP
OU/KS OV Locksville, OK 74801 (over came out @ 71.5)
These 2 don’t play as often as I would like to show my confidence in this pick which I am calling a lock. Anyways lets check–r-out. OU sports a nice 45.0 / 15.6 for ~60pts per game, while KU shows 34.6 / 49.4 for a solid 84pts per game Jesus. OU is 3-2 Ov/Under while KU is 4-0, don’t read into OU’s D or anything like that too much, its going to be something like 56-28, it’ll go over, this is a lock no matter what your friends say, anything less than 78pts take it. Im not going to waste anymore time on this I have to go to work soon, if you need more elaboration ask for it.
USU -4
I liked it to begin with and Fawkes did a sexy write up http://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/college-fo...-write-up.html
that I really can’t elaborate on. Something sexy may be that USU is 4-1 ATS while, Fres is 2-4, also between the 2; 9 of 11 games have gone OVER, so look for that to be an easy play also. Don’t read to much into it, and lock it in. fun facts for games played at Fres.... UTAH ST is 3-1 against the spread versus FRESNO ST since 1992, FRESNO ST is 5-0 straight up against UTAH ST since 1992, 2 of 3 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1992
ASU/Oregon OV**** (over is out @ 66)
No reason for this over other than I think ASU will score a bunch and Oregon will score a bunch more, Im diving into the facts now (last weekend this swayed me towards the under, so I decided not to bet it at all rightfully so) here we go, 25min until I leave for work, I am shirtless and a wasp just flew in, need to find swatter, BRB. Ok I didn’t kill it but I hit it… Im sure it will sting me shortly, lets go!
Spreads don’t matter here, if L. James plays Im assuming they will crush but if he doesn’t I will write a better article later in the week, but for time’s sake “THE OVER”!, ASU is going 35/19 while Oregon is 50/22, lets dive deeper for peace-of-minds sake, 8 of 11 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1992 (encouraging) , 42-31 in 2010, and 44-21 in 2009, Oregon winning both, [RB] 10/06/2011 - LaMichael James injured last game, doubtful Saturday vs. Arizona State ( Elbow ) meh Im not caring as much I still think Oregon will put up points BUT, I definately will consider ASU +15 pretty seriously, I will post an article probably Wednesday justifying that play. Anyways Over hopefully its set at 63.5! 4 stars
For Fawkes
USF -6.5 @ UConn.
Colorado @ Washington -14.
Ball State @ Ohio -14
Rice over Marshall
Purdue over Penn state
For Jake
Toledo -8.5 vs Bowling Green
Alabama -25.5 vs Misissippi ...
Temple -20 vs Buffalo 20
Washington -14 vs Colorado
Last edited by spladle08; 10-11-11 at 02:08 PM. Reason: Overs are out
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Fabulous write ups Spadle! I can't help but agree in almost every case, ASU/Oregon still scares me a bit but I'm glad you're looking into ASU +15. The Stanford spread seems like it should be 3-5 points higher and I'm still looking as to why that line is where it is. Hope all those tickets don't weigh you down too much on the way to the bank
Oh and thanks for the shout out and the link, bud! Very kind of you! Ball State @ Ohio -14 's write up is in progress now, I'm really liking what I see with Purdue over Penn State this week. Should be out Thursday or Friday. Have an awesome day at work man!
Opinions
Michigan - No play because I respect the Mich St bye week. Virginia over GT with a huge situational edge. Texas over OK St due to technical advantages. Maryland over Clemson with a nice rush-line hook-up in a solid situational play. NW line came low, need 7. Pass on Stanford/both team playing well.
Good luck.
Originally Posted by spladle08
Thanks for the write ups man! When you have the time can you give us your thoughts on LSU -14-16 over Tennessee. It definitely looks like a lot of points on the surface for a road conference game but I hear Bray is out which massively limits Tenn on offence.
care to elaborate on your fears in Stanford, Texas, or GT? I think WashSt playing well puts them at about average level, and Texas I just cant see keeping it close against OSU (all the longhorns wins came against middle of the road teams), did I miss something in the UVA/GT game?
At work, sobered up so I will try to look at the other games I listed.
Hadnt heard that about Bray, but I researched last week and everything pointed to an LSU cover and I couldnt pull the trigger, I will definitely look into it bc they have been a cash cow, should have it done in the next few hours as I work my way through the list. looks like Rig might be breaking down, if thats the case I will go home, crack another Guinness and really get going
Wow, nice writeup dude. I never play O/Us, but might try some of your plays this week
For Fawkes, I will just Edit this post as I finish typing (Internet is slow out here so its taking me longer to look at things)
USF @ UConn (I say UCONN +6.5 ***)
Where to start, I was on ND in the first game of the year and got burned, then I was on USF against Pitt and got burned, hmmm who to take here.USF has 1 quality win, coming over ND in that week 1 turnover plagued performance. Their next 3 wins came against Ball State, Florida A&M, and UTEP, before a 44-17 trouncing at the hands of Pitt (who went on to get trounced by Rutgers 34-10 in the next game) Anyways I’m starting to feel they are pretenders (despite by love of mobile QB’s). UConn is also pretty lack-luster, going 2-4 straight up and a terrible 1-5 ATS. I feel they get a little better each week though losing to Vandy by 3, ISU by 4, and Western Mich by 7, that’s 3 games where a bounce one way or the other could have completely changed the outcome, the game is a conference game and will be at UCONN so that’s encouraging, I wonder what the numbers say. PF/PA for Uconn is 23.3 / 22.5 and 39.8 / 22.4 for S. Florida, but once again I look at the mere 17pts they could manage against Pitt and the 23 against ND despite 5 turnovers supplied by their D. South Florida depends heavily on the run to open up their passing game and Uconn has been stout against the run allowing an average of 74.7 yards per game, (44yrds in home games) If BJ Daniels has to beat you through the air I like your chances, take UCONN with the points, and enjoy your winnings
Couple historical stats that struck a nerve included:
CONNECTICUT is 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points over the last 3 seasons.
CONNECTICUT is 2-0 straight up against S FLORIDA over the last 3 seasons
CONNECTICUT is 20-8 ATS (+11.2 Units) after 2 or more consecutive straight up losses since 1992
The betting public is correct when moving the money line in S FLORIDA games 20% of the time over the past 3 seasons. (5-20)
Colorado @ Washington: I like Washington -14
I haven’t looked into it in depth, but my thought is I like Washington but doesn’t Colorado tend to keep it reasonably close? Second thought, I hammered Stanford last week so I have quite a bit of knowledge on Colorado and I’m guessing they gave their all in a losing effort and now they will play a Washington Team coming off big wins over Cali and Utah, followed by a bye week? CO players have to be discouraged but lets see what the numbers say. PF/PA 21.5 / 33.3 for CO, 34.0 / 29.4 for Wash. Washington is 4-1 SU and and 4-1 ATS while CO is 1-5 SU and 2-4 ATS, I’m starting to favor Wash. A weakness I see in the game is Washingtons pass defense but with CO only averaging 94 yards on the ground per game, and Washington only allowing 65/game @ home, I think Washington will be able to put a little extra emphasis on the secondary and shut down this CO offense. 14pts is a big number but given the circumstances I don’t hate it, and would easily lean in the favor of Washington. 2 stars.
Fun Facts
-when playing against a team with a losing record Washigton is 5-1 ATS over 3 seasons and 5 of 6 of those games have gone under the total
- 5-0 after a bye week
-Colorado is 3-11 ATS in all road games over the last 3 seasons.
Purdue over Penn state(good value) Purdue +12.5 (4.5 stars)
really interested in this one. Purdue is 3-2 SU and 2-3 ATS, while PSU is 5-1 SU and 1-4-1 ATS, PSU is scoring 21 while allowing 10 and Purdue is going 32/20. Looks like Purdue’s running game will be the key they average 215 yards on the ground while PSU is only giving up 93. PSU is on the close-game gravy train right now and soon enough they are going to run out of track, will it be this week? I hate when a team relies only on defense, don’t get me wrong they have a great D but following a loss to bama (27-11) they scored 14 in a win against Temple, 36 against E. Mich, 16 against Indiana U, and 13 against Iowa. Not a lot of offenses coming out of JoPa. There are no overwhelming stats in favor of either team but one thing you can count on is PSU’s defense being stout, and both teams playing field position and eating up a lot of clock. The more I look at this the more I feel an overwhelming lean towards the under, or if you can get Purdue +5 or more it would be hard not to take them with a lot of confidence (Im waiting for the page to load so I can see the actual line) Oh wow I just saw the line is @ 12.5 and unless Vegas knows something I don’t (which Im sure they do), this is a steal. WOW Fawkes I agree that there is going to be a lot of value on Purdue on the ML seeing as how any team is a touchdown away from beating PSU, but 12.5 feels like a can’t lose. Glad I looked this line up, adding it to my 4**** picks. Nice. Sorry not a ton of extra info I know I have said it 100x but I will add more when Im home tomorrow.
Last edited by spladle08; 10-11-11 at 01:28 AM.
Sorry that font is so big and weird,, I will fix on next post
Nice work spladle... Man I was wrong on the NW UM game last weekend, but I still stand by the bet.. NW was in it most of time and driving down the field when Kovacs ripped persas helmet off on 4th down... That td would have been a cover... but my god I just pulled out the hypotheticals.. shame on me
I am again opposite of you on the battle for paul bunyan...
Heres my side... Baker, Caper, and Bell... MSU line is so banged up but Michigan has not showed me that they can win in the trenches, if you see the tape from last week vs. NW when it came to man on man get a yard michigan has not showed me they can get it done.
Mich offense cannot be stopped, I forfeit that notion... MSU can only hope to contain with some athetes like William Gholston, and Worthy clugging the middle lanes funneling the speed to the edges... This game comes down, to for me... the MSU safeties, Guys like Trenton Robinson have to stop the big plays once D-Rob gets to the third level, and stop the deep passes, and YAC that michigan has been thriving off.
I think that crowd will be rocking, Nike has put their spin on the game Michigan State will be in the pro combats, adding more hype. I am on sparty this week.
Love the Stanford play.....
Good luck Bspring, my internet is shit out here I am trying to type up some of the other reviews but having to just type from memory and a few facts sheets I have let load over 10minutes (torture) but obviously will brush up on details when I get home tomorrow, Fawkes turned me onto this Purdue /PSU game and at 12.5 Purdue has to be a very easy bet, against a PSU team who is lucky to score 14... just saying, editing previous post to get a few of these very poorly written articles up now...
Great work on your write-ups man. Agree with most of your choices, but not quite sold on Cinci and Mich. Haven't had time to research yet while on the road but will keep an eye on your thread when I put my card together later in the week.
this is the week to bet against Stanford. Finally.
Sure! Thanks for asking.
Stanford: Nothing against them, but I think the edge they have had lately just isn't there in this game. Stanford has done everything asked of them defensively, but in the hard to believe category this is the 1st team they will face a team that has run-pass balance. QB Luck will do just fine, but I see the line as accurate. The only technical edge goes to WSU based on a long time RF negative situation that is 231-339 ATS prior to this year and is at 5-6 thus far in '11.
Texas: They looked bad last week and of course had issues in '10 but overall this is actually a strong bounce back team. A -4 turnover margin hurt them last week in a game they were going to lose anyway (as it turns out), but the defense is still much better this season. Leading the bounce back tendency is their 7-1 ATS record off a loss to Oklahoma and a more general 14-8 ATS bounce back record as a dog. Oklahoma State is clearly an excellent offensive team with a top 5 NFL draft choice at WR, but the run D is soft and the pass D% is hovering at 60%. Texas will move the chains here and become a dangerous dog.
GT: Favorites had their way last week, but this has the look of a much tighter slate. Virginia is in one very solid technical situation, fitting a 117-83 ATS trend and a 179-102 ATS trend, with the odds of this game actually putting them closer to 68% historically. Sure, that means it is NOT A LOCK, and in fact the overall situation is just 1-1 thus far, but I like the match-up. At +7 or > Virginia has the run edge due to a better overall run D. They are 4-1 ATS as a dog hosting GT, and 9-3-1 SU. Taken by itself, maybe it's a "who cares", but I like the cumulative effect. Virginia has the more accurate QB and the statistically better pass D%. The line is fair, but the situation favors Virginia.
Hope that helps. Bottom line: It's all still called gambling.
For Jake
Toledo vs Bowling Green Toledo-8.5 ***
Toledo 35/25 while BG goes 30/29 mind you I was a big BG backer to start the season, but I have since forgot about them. Both are 3-3 SU Toledo is 4-2 ATS while BG is 3-3 ATS these 2 teams have been even Stevens over the last few years, BG winning 2 years ago 38-24 and Toledo winning last year 33-14. BG hasn’t looked terrible but they just got crushed by Western Mich and WVU. Toledo, after a tough opening schedule (Ohio State, Boise State, Temple, etc… ) has seemed to really have hit their stride and started dominating, despite missing Adonis Thomas. I don’t think I need to elaborate too much here, BG is at home and will look to keep it close after the embarrassing losses, but Toledo’s 36-13 drubbing of Temple followed by a 54-16 victory over Eastern Michigan in a possible let down game gives me faith they will add to BG’s woes on Saturday afternoon. Side note, I looked back only 4yrs but none of the games have been within 9pts, so whoever wins, if history repeats itself, it shouldn’t be close.
Alabama vs Mississippi: Bama -25 ***
AHHHHH a Bama game. These guys are almost automatic but let’s see if there is any reason we should think otherwise. Bama averages 37/7 while Ole miss goes 22/24, Bama is 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS with their 1 non-cover coming against North Texas in a 41-0 victory but a 47pt spread. Ole miss is 2-3 SU and 2-3 ATS. A common opponent they have is Vandy, who Bama beat 34-0 and who Ole Miss lost to 30-7. The game is @ ole miss but I don’t see this mattering much. Ole Miss is giving up 174 on the ground in home games and Im sure Richardson is going to take full advantage of this less than average defense. This should open up the passing game. Ole Miss averages only 235yrds of total offense at home and this number won’t go up against a solid Bama D holding road opponents to an average of 236yrds (including Florida). This should be 1 sided and 25 seems like a lot and it is which is the only reason this isn’t a 4star pick… it’s a 3.5… shouldn’t have any worries here.
Temple vs Buffalo: Temple -20***
I wrote the Temple -20 before having looked at this I know Buffalo is improved but not sure how much improved, let’s look. Temple (31/11) 4-2 SU, 5-1 ATS, and 0-5 (0ver-under)…. Buffalo is (21/27) 2-4 SU, 4-2 ATS, and 2-4 (over-under), early signs point to under as a play with a combined 9 unders through 11 games. Key games I think are Temple crushing Maryland 38-7 and Ball State 42-0, Maryland is significant because they are a decent team, Ball State is significant for common opponent purposes. Ball State actually did beat Buffalo 28-25. Buffalo has lost a lot of games this year but 20 points is a lot of points, the only team to beat them by 20 all year has been Tennessee in a 41-10 romp, Pittsburg was close (19), and Uconn won by 14, but I think this is a 4 touchdown victory with Temples D being too much. Side note: TEMPLE is 2-0 against the spread versus BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons including a 42-0 win last year, and a 37-13 victory in 09. 3 Stars
Last edited by spladle08; 10-11-11 at 12:20 AM.
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Good post, liked it all. I have probably an unfair bias against Texas, but I just feel like the "bounce back" numbers come from when they were a perennial power not sure how many years Vince Young and Colt McCoy took up, but they just arent title contenders this year and they are running into a Buzzsaw in OSU. Everyone is waiting on Stanford to fail to cover but 10 of 11 games won over 25pts, thats pretty sexy you know, they are just hard to bet against, GT vs VA I cant argue at all, I think GaTech needs to rebound after 2 lack luster performances, and I know UVA plays the majority of their opponents close, but I just dont think they can keep up. I guess we will see Saturday. I hope you do well sir, I loved your analysis.
Check out the over on WMU/NIU. Keeping a lookout for that one.
For Grizzlies1
LSU vs Tennessee: LSU -16***
Welp, ride the train. No need to break down too many stats here, LSU covers against good teams, but 16 geez maybe there is a need. Obviously for a team who averages 327 through the air and only 84 on the ground, the loss of a starting QB is going to be detrimental. His replacement Simms is 5 of 8 on the year for 57 yards (but did start for Tenn last year in their 16-14 loss). This one is going to be similar to last week (Florida), I think Tennessee QB having some experience makes up for them having less all-round talent. The Defense isn’t great allowing 20pts per and the offense will have trouble getting anything going against this beast of an LSU defense. LSU’s offense has also been underrated averaging 38 points a contest. I don’t see there being any let down on LSU’s side. I also feel that loss to Georgia killed any momentum the Vols may have hoped for heading into a brutal stretch of games, playing @ Bama next week and then South Carolina comes to town. The Volunteers rushed for -20 yards against Georgia so don’t expect the run game to be helpful. Meh Oregon and Miss St. both stayed within 13 of the Tigers, but I think that is as close as any game is going get besides Bama. 16 is a lot but shouldn’t be a problem. 3 Stars.
Yeah Madhatter, Im going to write that up now because it should be over regardless unless its @ 100 then I will question it
Its Actually 68.5
Northern Illionois/Western Michigan Ov 68.5 LOCKSVILLE>
NIU (37/34) vs Western Michigan (32/21). Before looking up the facts I think the fact that NIU can’t stop anyone (including CMU) would lead you to take WM -1.5 if you are interested in betting the spread. WM is also 4-1-1 ATS while NIU is 2-4 but who cares about all that we are talking team totals. NIU has gone over in 4 of 6 while Western Mich has gone over in 3 of 6. Im hesitant to look at historical trends because this year NIU has just been absolutely terrible on defense and I don’t think history can account for that. Western Mich has scored on everyone and looked good doing it, their 2 losses coming to Michigan and Illinois (by 3) in these 2 games they scored 10 and 20pts respectively. Outside of those ranked opponents their lowest total has been 38pts. Similarly NIU had their lowest scoring outing against Wisconsin (7 points) and besides that god-awful performance they have scored at least 40 in every game and allowed 26+ in all but 1 game. 68.5 is a gift and this should be wrapped accordingly
Hey man! You've been busy this week! I'm glad you liked the Purdue/Penn State line, I had the same thoughts when I saw it. I really don't see Purdue getting shutout and I really don't see Penn State putting up 20 or a little over. Purdue isn't as bad of a team as they look. I will be backing that up in my own write up
I am on USF over UConn though, I bet UConn last week against West Virginia and they made me look silly. Revenge Money!
This is the first week of the NCAAF season I've been all in. It's petrifying, but I just seem to find more and more lines out of whack.
Keep fighting the good fight man, the more info on here the better we all get!
Fawkes, I started the Ball State and Rice write-ups and actually have quite a bit of info but it just keeps equating to a wash. Im gonna get home and sleep in the morning but I will spend some of tonight and tomorrow looking for an edge if I cant find one by noon I wont post it but yeah I typed a lot and I just kept myself unsure.
Hi spladle... new here... good write ups...
What do u think about FSU (-13.5)... Auburn (?)... and Oklahoma St. (-8)?
FSU lost me money all season .
Already wrote on the OSU game... I'll look at Auburn and FSU here shortly, Im trying to decide which 10picks Im going to lock in right now and which Im going to wait on and see if the line becomes more favorable
***EDIT to Ken10 there is a thread dedicated to Auburn/Florida as well as FSU/DUKE towards the top, if you really want something typed holla, but my internet went back to crap so Im going to lay off trying to research for the rest of the night, but will be more than happy to look it up tomorrow if you still want it (helps me see aspects I wouldnt have otherwise)
Last edited by spladle08; 10-11-11 at 02:44 AM.
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