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Utah State @ Fresno State - Fawkes Write Up
Season Record 8-3-0 +32.6u
Hey SBR Forums! Some crazy lines coming out early this week! I've thrown more of my bankroll around in the last 2 hours than I have in the last 2 weeks! I wish I could write them all up, but quick list: BYU as a pk em @ Oregon St., Florida as pk em at Auburn, Clemson -8 @ Maryland, South Carolina -4.5 @ Mississippi St., the list continues. If I could stop time I would love to do some research and do a write up for each but time is important at this stage of the game. Anyway, most of those games will be getting a lot of attention from Sportscenter and other posters on this board. I thought I'd bring you a value I think everyone is going to overlook.
Utah State @ Fresno State
Utah State is coming off a crazy game and a huge win over Wyoming. Wyoming went up 2 touchdowns on a solid drive down the field and a bone-headed play by Utah State's Kerwynn Williams (RB jr) allowed the kickoff to go into the endzone and watched as Wyoming ran to the ball and recovered the ball for a touchdown. Wyoming missed an extra point and an attempted 2 point conversion and went up 12-0. The final score was 63-19 Utah State. The Aggies have been plagued by boneheaded plays, poor bounces and terrible coaching. However, last week Utah State found its rhythm and would not be denied on most possessions, scoring 9 touchdowns and punting only 3 times. This year the Aggies would be a 5-0 ranked team if you could cut the last 30 seconds from each of their games. This is not a fourth quarter team. The Aggies need to be able to go to the ground game to get success, but can air it out when the defense begins to cheat up.
Statistics Utah State is 4-1 ATS this season only losing to Colorado State in overtime. Chuckie Keeton (QB fr) has a long way to go towards being a reliable quarterback in the deep passing game, but does boast a season completion rating of 62.4%, has yet to throw an interception and boasts a passer-rating of 135.9 through 5 games. However, Keeton does have a miserable 587 yards through the air. Utah State's O-line is the dominating feature, allowing only 6 sacks on the season and giving Utah's running backs plenty of opportunities. Utah State has 3 monster backs in Robert Turbin (RB jr), Kerwynn Williams (RB jr) and Michael Smith (RB sr) who are averagin 6.7, 7.8 and 9.1 yards per carry respectively. I usually don't just throw these numbers out, but they are truly impressive. The Aggies are averaging 6.7 yards per play, .55 points per play, 55.2% 3rd down conversions, and has scored on 100% of red zone appearances (20/22 for TDs). The defense is only allowing 34.6% of 3rd down conversions. Josh Thompson (K fr) is a perfect 4/4 this season with a long of 41 yards and an average of 31.8. Utah State is 28th overall in the NCAA with 117 first downs, averaging 23.4 per game. Conversely, they are holding opponents to 79 first downs, averaging 15.8 per game.
Fresno State is coming off a humiliating loss in the one-sided Rivalry against Boise St. Pat Hill (Head Coach 15th season) was handed his worst home loss of his career at Fresno State 57-7 on national television with a Friday highlighted game. "We fell flat on our face," was Hill's response to the disappointment. Fresno was trounced in every way imaginable. But I don't have to tell you that because the odds are you saw it - as did the nation. With a 2-4 record (beating North Dakota and Idaho) the Bulldogs are searching for something to salvage an already broken season and the humiliation. Fresno State has already lost fan support with a showing of just over 30,000 fans in a stadium that holds 40,000 taking on rival #5 Boise State.
Statistics Fresno State has lost 5 fumbles and given 6 interceptions in 6 games this year. Derek Carr (QB so) is getting sacked 11 times this year (None of which came from Boise St.), but is boasting 61.2% completions on the year for 1291 yards (215.2 yards per game). Carr is impressive with a 142.1 passer-rating so far this season, but is coming off of a performance netting him an 85.3. Robbie Rouse (RB jr) is the heart of the Bulldogs offense. On 133 attempts he has 600 yards, averaging 100 yards per game and 4.5 yards per carry. Kevin Goessling (K sr) has a powerful if not exactly accurate leg, going 5/9 on field goal attempts this season with an impressive long of 48 yards. Fresno State is allowing 6.2 yards per play to opponents, 0.59 points per play and a 95% red zone scoring. Fresno State is 102nd in the NCAA for first downs, with 104. averaging only 17.3 per game. The Bulldog defense is middle of the road allowing 18.2 first downs per game, 109 overall.
Personal Notes
Gary Andersen (Head Coach USU 3 seasons) really needs to pull his head out of his ass for this one. If the coaching staff doesn't get in the way, the Aggies would be having a much better season.
I have a hard time assigning value to momentum and usually ignore it, this is one of those times it cannot be ignored.
I look for the Aggies to need a big play on occasion in this one, and Robert Turbin to come through every time. Turbin will not go down at first contact.
My Picks
Utah State -3 (@ -125) @ 5u
This may increase to 10 depending on further research.
Thank you for reading and as always please feel free to post anything and everything. I read all comments and continue to check picks against any new data presented here. This is a write-up and contains some of the information I use, but not all for the sake of time. I hope this information is useful, despite which way the information is used. Again, Thank you for reading!
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Originally Posted by Playmaker
