As a lifelong IU fan and current student, I see no way that IU keeps this game within 50.
1) IU currently has a QB problem. Wright-Baker was the starter through the first 3 1/2 games and looked okay, not really good though. He's been injured and Kiel has been AWFUL as starter and we even turned to true frosh Tre Roberson. Now, I'm not sure if Wright-Bakers starts this week or not (was apparently injured still, and only "90-95%, but couldn't push off his back foot"), but I would guess he's just in the doghouse and the true frosh Roberson gets his first start.
2) OL is ATROCIOUS! Worse I've seen in a long time, Roberson will get harassed all game.
3) Only positive for IU is the defense. They've been better than the stats have shown. Take away the fumble taken to the house and the 80ish yard TD to Jenkins last week (3rd and long, blitz, a true frosh safety missed his assignment. No one within 20 yards of Jenkins.) and they actually held them in check fairly well. However, what is hurting the D the most if the offense doesn't stay on the field for more than 3 plays. And with Kevin Wilson's "fast-paced" offense, the D spends a majority of the game on the field and they just get work down.
4) All of this being said...Wisconsin is BY FAR the best team we have faced, and our first actual road test (Only road game thus far was @ North Texas, where we were thoroughly beaten 3/4 of that game).
5) IU is much worse than they were last year (actually respectable and probably a bowl team last year) and Wisconsin is EVEN BETTER than they were last year....and you know what happened last year? 83-20. I don't know what IU did to piss of Beilema, but he loves to run it up on IU.
I would not be surprised to see a score like 63-6 or something similar. Getting it at the current -39 is a steal.