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8 plays for the weekend
Oregon vs California- Oregon -24*** OV 62.5** (meh im not using this one)
Oregon is 7-1 ATS in October over the last 3years. California is 1-6 ATS over the last 3 years in all games played on Turf. Both teams have gone over in 3 of 4 games,
PF/PA (points for/against) Oregon = 52/24.5 while Cal = 39.5/24.3
Coming off a week’s rest look for both teams to score points, Oregon is at home so they will likely show out, after their loss to LSU Oregon’s closest game has been Arizona whom they beat by 25. I think this one will end similarly, I say Oregon -24 is a solid 3star pick, while the Over SHOULD BE a lock but due to history tending to repeat itself Im only giving it 2stars.
5 of 5 games at oregon between these 2 have gone under since 92'
BoiseST vs FresnoST: OV 58.5*****
By the numbers… Boise is averaging 36.5 / 16.8 while Fres is going 30.6 / 32.4 I think Fresno has a crappy enough defense coupled with the fact that they can score, this should be an easy over. 4 of 5 games this year for Fresno have gone over, and with an offense as high powered as Boise’s coming to town, don’t expect a low scoring game.
Bama vs Vandy: Bama -30/Ov 41 (don’t like this game)
I don’t like this game at all but I felt obligated to chime in. If I had to pick a play I would say play the over. Vandy averages 25/15 while bama goes 38/8 I feel more swayed by bamas numbers than vandy’s. Bama held an impressive Florida offense to 10 and Ark to 14… while putting up big numbers on respectable defenses ( 38 in both games) I see them posting a similar number here, just hoping vandy can score any. Hmmmm…I personally think bama covers the over themselves and if they do, the -30 shouldn’t be tough but I am staying away from this one. I think vandy is like 10-3 ATS vs Bama... since 92
OSU vs KU- *****OV 71.5 LOCK
This one is really straight forward, both teams have good offenses and not brilliant defenses… OSU averages 46.8 / 27.5 while KU goes 36.3 / 44.3 I see the final score being something like 56-28, but should be an easy cover, this line would be good up to 78 easy, lock it in before it climbs.
Michigan vs Northwestern: ***Michigan -7
Before I even look at the stats Im just going to type I like this line a lot, to my knowledge NW gives up points, and has limited offensive abilities, which isn’t a good recipe against a very potent Mich Offense with a greatly improved defense under Hoke. Michigan averages 37.2 / 10.2 while NW has gone 28.8 / 24.3. Michigan is 4-1 ATS over its first 5 games while NW is 2-2. I think the public over values Persa here and doesn’t consider NW’s overall lack-luster team. I don’t really like the Over 59 here because Im note sure how effective NW offense will be, especially if they pull out Persa once it gets out of hand.
Arizona vs Oregon State: ***Zona -1.5
Not sure what to make of this line, unless they just assume the public sees losses/blowouts and fades a team, because Zona is legit and can put points on the board. They showed flashes against Oregon, and ended up only losing to USC by one score. They have trouble with pass happy offenses but the stretch of teams they have faced (OSU, Stanford, Oregon, USC) will more than prepare them for a beaver team who has yet to win a game. Including a loss to Sacramento state.
OrSt averages 16.8 / 31.5 while Zona goes 27.4 / 37.6 Oregon
here is a little write up
Two bad teams heading south in their programs from previous years...OSU is 6-2 last 8 in this series but i don't see it happening this year... Oregon already had a depleted OL and now lost two more starters leaving them on the OL with exp. Not good for a true Fresh QB Mannion taking the helm from Katz..OSU cant get the running game going with no OL and two scat backs who are midgets under 185 lbs..Puts allot of pressure on a QB hence 2 tds and 5 int...looking at the two Arizona (injuries not a factor since most on the injury report are back ups) comes in with a brutal schedule behind them playing Oklahoma St., Stanford, USC and Oregon going 1-4..most teams would and most teams would give 500 yards a game against those O's...so when u compare OSU giving up 372 to far less talented teams (except Wisconsin) the D's actually match up...OSU comes in 0-4 losing to Sacramento St. (r u kidding me) Arizona St., UCLA and Wisconsin getting shelled in all of them...Foles for Arizona is still having a great year and has all key players at WR,RB and TE...Foles has 73% completion rate 14 td's and 2 int against great teams (USC is OK) with this being said their OL is in shambles and three freshman and only 1 OL above 300 lbs....Bottom line will the be the passing attack with Foles going crazy here...Too much for a shattered D and a bad Oregan St. D/O/Special Teams/Fans/Cheerleaders and whomever else you can throw in that bunch...Foles passes for 350 yards and 4 tds...Arizona 35 Oregan St. 21
Utah vs ASU: ****ASU -4
This one seems as sexy as any to me, I think the public over-values Utah after a strong season last year and a close game with USC this year and a pasting of a mediocre BYU team. Look for this to be a pretty solid beasting. Washington just put it on Utah and meh its Washington. ASU has pasted USC and Oregon State while losing a tight battle to Illinois and coming out with a nice win over Missouri, look for them to cover this spread easily behind a strong defense that is easily able to rattle Utah rookie QB Jon Hays in his first career start. Oh and ASU averages 35/20 while Utah goes 27/18 and will most definitely be less behind a new QB.
TCU vs San Diego State: *****Over 55 LOCK
TCU’s defense has not been impressive allowing 28 points a game, while their offense has been decent scoring nearly 42 per game, San Diego state has allowed at least 20 to every opponent they have played, averaging 23 pts against, and 30points for. I see both teams scoring in the low 30’s should be a pretty simple cover… did I mention 5 of 5 games have gone OVER for TCU this year
Maryland vs GaTech: *****Ov 63.5 LOCK
GaTech scores in bunches, and is content with a shoot-out. Maryland doesn’t have a great offense but as long as they can get 14-21 on the board (which should be simple against a GaTech team who has given up 21+ to every team this year) this will be a cover. Take it to the bank and Lock it in!!! Did I mention Gatech has gone over in every game?
Stanford vs Colorado: Stanford -29.5
Its a lot of points but Stanford is 4-0 against the spread and has won 9 of their last 10 games by more than 25pts. Colorado got beasted by Hawaii and OHST, and I think Stan will super-beast them, if that’s a word. YAY! Stanford is averaging 46/11 while Colorado is showing 24.4 / 30.4. CU has a very depleted seconday cards roll. lets pray for a beastin and an 8-0 weekend.
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Originally Posted by spladle08
well lets hope it goes well. Im sure you have picked and choosed the ones you liked, but im not 100% sold on my Boise Ov pick after people have been questioning me about it but I still feel like its a favorite over the under, I know they are 1-3 over-under but Fresno has given up bunches of points, and I personally feel both teams can put points on the board, I really expect 21+ from Fresno at home despite Boise's strong defense. People have been making a semi-fuss about Moore's struggles last week and I think this is also a good spot for him to rebound and have a huge game, but anyways I'm locked in so I am playing it regardless. Im basically not confident enough to bet on the Oregon game tonight and I wanted action before Saturday so i chose this play. If you arent an action junkie consider replacing it with Auburn/Ark Ov 63 or Baylor/ISU OV 63 or just a no play. I think Ark is going to light Auburn up. Auburn has got scored on in bunches by decent offenses (they looked good last week, but South Carolina's offense is feast or famine), and Ark isn't exactly a stout defense giving up 28 to troy, 38 to bama, and 38 to a&m, Look for Auburn to post a mid 20's to low 30's number and Arkansas to exceed 40 for the 4th time this year. BOL
