[sandman0713]

let me be the first to say, week 5 was pathetic for me. i just now posted in another thread that i have been betting like a drunk fan this year, and pretty much abandoned the strategy that has made me money in the past. i mean i don't bet 13 games on a saturday...i don't make a habit of playing the huge games every week...and i don't bet something just because it is on tv. that was one of the most miserable days i have ever spent watching football. knocks me down to 28-25 on the season, but i am actually losing a little money now. no more f'ing around. i will continue to pick the side and total on all the weeknight games, but other than that i will not bet anymore unless i see value. i am also going back to using units like i have in the past. it wouldn't have changed much about how this season has gone, but if i am only betting 4-6 games on saturday then i want a little more on my top plays. ok...i will post the weeknight games later. good luck this week guys.

[sandman0713]

ok...let's do this right this weekend. got three plays i am betting today and then i will add a few more later. the weeknight games i am still undecided on.

buffalo under 53 for 3 units. these teams have both had their share of problems scoring...buffalo moreso than ohio. just don't see a very high scoring game when it appears both of these guys want to run the ball...and the ohio d is actually pretty good. 53 is at the very top of the probable scoring range from what i can tell. dig up the numbers though and decide what you think.

miss state -17 for 3 units. when msu is able to establish the run they score points and look pretty potent on o. this can be determined by looking at the rushing yards in each of their games so far and comparing it to total yards and score. this rings very true for msu...totally different o when they can run it. uab gives up well over 200 yards rushing per game...and over 500 total yards per game. msu will rush for close to 300 yards and score some points. uab on the other hand may not score a point. they score less than 2 tds per game and gain less than 300 yards...and this msu d is pretty good. they average 14...florida shut them out...they can't run the ball...10 points tops here.

penn state under 44 for 4 units. the penn state d is pretty incredible actually. they have only gave up over 300 yards one time so far, and that was only 350 to bama. twice they have held opposition to under 200 yards. nobody outside of bama can score over 10 points on them...and bama only got 27. the psu o on the other hand has proven they are not scoring on anyone, no matter how bad the d. you can go ahead and throw out the iowa defensive stats because psu aint scoring more than 2 tds. i think even an iowa blowout of psu would look something like 30-6 at the very worst.

will add maybe 3 more later, and try to decide on the weeknight games. will go ahead and keep track from my record of 28-25...but i am starting units this week and will start at +0. i know i am down a little from the juice and a larger bet that lost. i haven't been as tight with my betting or my money this season up until now, and i don't even know how much i am down exactly...though not much of anything. no more screwing around for me...and no more 13 game days...lol.

[sandman0713]

so miss +3 for 4 units. taking a few free points from line movement here. i guess people see navy at home and just assume a fg or less is a value. navy 2 wins came over w kentucky and deleware...and neither of these were really eye catching. the so miss run d is pretty stout...and with almost no threat of the pass should be able to load up. i made the mistake of blindly betting navy last week just because of what i knew from the past...but watching them in that game changed my thinking. i say they get squashed this game in a mini-blowout...something like 32-13.

[sandman0713]

zona over 58 for 5 units. heard a lot of people on here talking about the zone spread being a great play. i think they are prolly right and zona wins...but i can't bet them. if they are gonna win or even be in this game though, they must score a lot to compensate for that awful d. oregon state has been up against some tough d's thus far...and i say they unload a little on this zona d. also i think most would agree that the ducks and trojans d's are better than oregon state...and zona unloaded on them for 31 and 41 points.

[sandman0713]

ok...that is it. maybe i lose all 5...but i feel a lot better only going in with 5 games i am pretty confident on. good luck to all this week. i will post tomm sometime the weeknight games. don't care about any of the 3 sides or totals...so i will wait to see if any of them move to hopefully gain some points one way or the other.

[guy Fawkes]

buffalo under 53 for 3 units. these teams have both had their share of problems scoring...buffalo moreso than ohio. just don't see a very high scoring game when it appears both of these guys want to run the ball...and the ohio d is actually pretty good. 53 is at the very top of the probable scoring range from what i can tell. dig up the numbers though and decide what you think.

miss state -17 for 3 units. when msu is able to establish the run they score points and look pretty potent on o. this can be determined by looking at the rushing yards in each of their games so far and comparing it to total yards and score. this rings very true for msu...totally different o when they can run it. uab gives up well over 200 yards rushing per game...and over 500 total yards per game. msu will rush for close to 300 yards and score some points. uab on the other hand may not score a point. they score less than 2 tds per game and gain less than 300 yards...and this msu d is pretty good. they average 14...florida shut them out...they can't run the ball...10 points tops here.

penn state under 44 for 4 units. the penn state d is pretty incredible actually. they have only gave up over 300 yards one time so far, and that was only 350 to bama. twice they have held opposition to under 200 yards. nobody outside of bama can score over 10 points on them...and bama only got 27. the psu o on the other hand has proven they are not scoring on anyone, no matter how bad the d. you can go ahead and throw out the iowa defensive stats because psu aint scoring more than 2 tds. i think even an iowa blowout of psu would look something like 30-6 at the very worst.

I like 'em and I like your reasoning. I'm all over Penn State Under with you for a non-posted play.

You're top post sounds a lot like me around week 3. I did awesome in weeks 1 and 2 and started throwing more units at games I wasn't researching very well. I got slapped in the face hard and dropped about half of my bankroll. You'll get it back, just stay disciplined and find your spots.

[sandman0713]

yeah...penn state looks like a solid under. you can never tell in ncaa...could be 48-45...but i think it is a smart play going off of the numbers. i actually like all 5 of those a lot...but that doesn't mean i won't go 1-4...lol. all you can do is put it on what you feel best about, give it a little kiss goodbye just in case, and see if it comes back to you...preferably with friends...lol. ok that was dumb i guess...just trying to be witty at 6am...lol. good luck this weekend man...i may end up on arkansas st with you as well.

[sandman0713]

ok...weeknight games.

cal +24 and under 65 for 1 unit each. i actually got 67 through my guy here, but for my record here i will just accept the sbr number. most likely this will just make my record look worse than it already does...but betting on the side of the entire betting public in a lopsided game is not something i do often. through the various states of these 2 programs over the last 10 years only 2 out of 10 games have been decided by 24 or more, and only one of those games have come in over this total. the cal run d is pretty good...and this has been one of the few teams to slow the ducks down as of late. maybe a loser, but i gotta take the 24 points, and i for sure have to take the free points i am getting with the under. nobody come talk trash on this game please, because i am only playing it for 2 total units and really don't care enough to debate it anymore.

w kentucky +12 and under 54 for 1 unit each. another one i don't feel good about either way. was always taught though that when in doubt, take the under and the points...lol. people pounding mtsu and moving the line more than 3 points is what made up my mind...i don't find much value in this game outside of those free points. both of these teams have really bad d's...but it seems both have good running games, and both should feel they have an advantage running the ball on o. to be honest...i just think both of these numbers are pretty much right on. gotta take the free points on the spread and hope for an ugly game...though i won't be watching it...lol.

fresno +21 and over 58.5 for 1 unit each. people can say how bad fresno is all they want...but they have played a fairly good schedule and haven't been blown out yet. they can also say how great boise is and talk about garbage scores...but i'm pretty sure you can't get a refund just because a garbage td ruined your boise -87 play. they beat so far...
nevada by 20
tulsa by 20
toledo by 25
now i am sure i could make a case for fresno being better than all 3 of those teams...but again, i don't care about this game enough to do it. just saying...we will most likely be sweating this out to the end no matter which side we are on. i like fresno to score some points based on what i have seen from them...which leads me to the over and + the points.

good luck all this weekend. like i said...don't tail these and then be mad if you lose. i just picked them because i said i was picking the side and total for every weeknight game. if these were on saturday i would not bet any one of them for even a unit.

[sandman0713]

ok...this is the only place i post now. if you reply to all the bs here and actually try to talk about games with people, it just turns into a pissing contest. like this week, i end up all wrapped up in a game i am betting 1 unit on side and 1 unit on total . am just posting my plays in here each week and that is all. 2-2 on the night for -.2 units...and 30-27 overall for -.2 units. still got...

fresno +21 1 unit
fresno over 58.5 1 unit

buffalo under 53 3 units
miss state -17 3 units
penn state under 44 4 units
so miss +3 4 units
zona over 58 5 units

i am leaving it right there and not adding anything. good luck this weekend guys...and when i say good luck it is to the people who are actually betting, not the ones out of money who just come in here to trashtalk and chestbump.

[sandman0713]

been warning people off of texas all week, so i guess i will put my money up. adding oklahoma -11 for 3 units. seems like such an easy winner that usually i would be all over. ou screwed me last time out though, so i was a little leary. 48-21 ou.

[sandman0713]

whew...i needed that for sure. i want to lay on a couple of games tonight, but i am not. taking that shit and done til next week.

5-1 today and +14.1 units. 36-29 overall and +13.8 units. good luck all tonight. just gonna enjoy the games and leave it at that.

[sandman0713]

gonna go ahead and start posting what i am playing on the nfl in this thread each week. not going to claim a record or say i am up a lot, because nothing has been posted. i have been doing ok though. have been using a completely different style than i do with my college games...and so far so good. i don't care about posting in the nfl forum and dealing with more bs...so i will just post them in my ncaa thread each week to keep track of the %. wasn't going to play this game tonight, so i didn't even bother looking at it until maybe 30 minutes ago. honestly thinking detroit may be a fraud. i think if you look at who they have played you would have to say those are 4 bad teams...and they had to make huge comebacks in 2 of them. the bears 2 losses to green bay and new orleans i would not consider bad losses at all, just a tough schedule to start out. also factor in that the bears own the lions in the last 10 games, and that this is usually a close game. i know it will be a madhouse there at first, but that emotion always wears off...and i think sometimes that pressure that goes with a game like this gets to you once the emotion is gone. i like the points and the bears to at the least keep it very close. i also feel that if detroit pulls another slow start, they won't be coming back tonight. anyways...i know most of that above doesn't mean much to anyone. i just like the bears to keep it close or win, and i think the game will be played at their pace.

bears +6.5 and under 47 for 2 units each.

let's see if i can't give back some of my ncaa winnings...lol.