[guy Fawkes]

Season Record 5-2-0 +26.1u

Hey SBR Forums! Hoping to get an early one in here before the line changes. Had a great finisher to the weekend hitting a complete guess pleaser so I could watch the NFL with some friends. Feeling like a gambler right now, so let's get rockin' with a game that's going to slip through a lot of radars:

Arizona St. @ Utah

Arizona St. Wow! Look at all those injuries! Eleven total injuries (four of which are questionable, six on defense, five on offense) could hamstring any team in the NCAA. Unless of course they don't ever see the field anyway. I know the formatting looks awful (sorry about that), but I'm going to try my best to list each injury and the relevant stats:

Brandon Magee (LB sr.) Out For Season (achilles) 2010 Stats: 75 Tack,1.5 Sack 2011 Stats: None
Omar Bolden (CB sr.) Out For Season (knee) 2010 stats: 52 Tack,3 Int 2011 Stats: None
Ezekiel Bishop (S fr.) Out For Season (ACL) 2010 Stats: None 2011 Stats: None
J.J. Holliday (WR so.) Out For Season (shoulder) 2010 Stats: None 2011 Stats: None
Devan Spann (CB fr.) Out For Season (shoulder) 2010 Stats: None 2011 Stats: None
Nduka (Junior) Onyeali (DE so.) Out Indefinitely (knee) 2010 Stats: 18 Tack, 6.5 Sack 2011 Stats: 5 Tack, 1 Sack
Joita Te'i (DT fr.) Out Indefinitely (foot) 2010 Stats: None 2011 Stats: None
T.J. Simpson (WR sr.) Questionable Week 5 (knee) 2010 Stats: 29 Rec, 481 yards 2011 Stats: None
Aderious Simmons (T sr.) Questionable Week 5 (ankle) 2010 Stats: None 2011 Stats: None
Deantre Lewis (RB so.) Questionable Week 5 (hamstring) 2010 Stats: 92 ATT, 539 yards, 4 TDs 2011 Stats: None
Adam Tello (G, sr.) Questionable Week 5 (back) 2010 Stats: None 2011 Stats: None

Breaking it down further Arizona State has lost a great linebacker, a great cornerback, a pass rusher and a back-up running back. Going even further only one of those players has seen any action this season. The key idea I would like to convey here is that we can judge Arizona State's performance this year without taking into account this intimidating menagerie of names. Arizona State is 4-1 only losing to Illinois by 3 points this season. The Sun Devils have impressed in every game this year, most notably against Mizzou in week 2. Arizona State's primary offense is the aerial attack and preys on weak secondaries.

Statistics

Brock Osweiler (QB jr.) is 6'8" and uses every inch of it. He has completed 117 passes out of 172 attempts (68% completion) boasting an impressive passer-rating of 146.3. He is a pocket passer, but will abandon the pocket when necessary and is not easy to bring down having only been sacked 12 times in 5 games and rushing for two TDs. Osweiler has a 1.7 TD:INT ratio. Cameron Marshall (RB jr.) is not stellar, but is playing for a much better season this year. Marshall has 81 attempted rushes for 374 yards averaging 4.6 yards per carry, but can catch the ball as well recording 12 receptions for 123 yards and averaging 10.3 yards per catch. He is improving week-by-week moving from 2.8 yards per carry against Mizzou to 5.3, 5.6 and 5.7 yards per carry in the last three weeks. I see don't see Marshall having a career day here by any means, but to have consistent gains and to gain the hard fought yards on third down. Aaron Pflugrad is where the fireworks will be in this one. Aaron Pflugrad (WR sr.) and Gerell Robinson (WR sr.) will be looking for big numbers against a very soft Utah secondary. Combining for 7 TDs this season, Pflugrad will burn by safeties and Robinson will be towering over cornerbacks. Look for Osweiler to be connecting with Pflugrad for 15+ yards and taking the underneath to Robinson very often in this one. The Sun Devil defense forced 1 fumble and 4 interceptions last week against Oregon State, 2 fumbles and 2 interceptions the week before against the USC Trojans and 2 fumbles and 1 interceptions against the Illini. This is a team that will force good offenses to make mistakes and bad ones to look silly.

Utah looks bad. I wish I would have gotten the time to write them up last week, they never stood a chance against a very middle-of-the-road Washington team. Utah is receiving a good deal of attention this year for downing BYU. Wynn Jordan (QB jr.) is hurt. It hasn't shown up officially anywhere I have come across, but in a quote from Kyle Whittingham "We'll know more tomorrow and a lot more Monday, but it doesn't look good." Wynn missed the second half of last weeks games with an injury to his non-throwing shoulder. Jon Hays (QB jr.) was the back-up quarterback on Saturday and is assumed to get the start next week. Hays is hard to get much of a feel for only having 1 career attempted pass prior to last weeks game. Other than Hays, no quarterback has any collegiate stats for Utah. The one positive thing I have to give Utah is that they are very disciplined. Arizona State will not get much help in the way of penalties.

Statistics Despite holding a despicable BYU team to 10 points, Utah allowed 343 yards through the air. Other than BYU, Utah has only been able to hold Montana State to less that 400 total yards, giving up 543 to Boise, 416 to USC and 411 to Washington. In the most recent game, Washington scored in every quarter as Utah turned the ball over 5 times with 3 fumbles and two interceptions. John White IV (RB jr.) had 14 attempted rushes last week for 35 yards, averaging a sub-par 2.5 yards per carry. White has been completely unpredictable this season; averaging 7.9 yards per carry in both Utah wins over Montana State and BYU and a dismal 2.8 and 2.5 yards per carry in Utah's losses to USC and Washington. White is averaging 1 reception per game for an average of 4 yards per catch. Utah boasts a few very good receivers in DeVonte Christopher (WR jr.), Josh Gordon (WR jr.) and Dres Anderson (WR fr.), but with an inexperienced back up quarterback against a tenacious Sun Devil secondary its going to be hard to get into any sort of rhythm. Dropped passes and misunderstood routes will be the name of the game for the Utes.

Personal Notes

Arizona State will be coming away with interceptions and fumbles, if the offense can avoid making the same mistakes they should enjoy a three-score lead.

The Utah running game is weak at best. With an inexperienced Utah quarterback in the pocket, Arizona State is going to have an easy time forcing 3-and-outs.

As far as an O/U, the books haven't released any numbers yet. I will likely be updating to take the Utah TT under unless it is unreasonable. I'll hopefully be updating when this information becomes available.

My Picks

Arizona St. -3 @ 5u
and likely more to come

Thank you for reading and as always please feel free to post anything and everything. I read all comments and continue to check picks against any new data presented here. This is a write-up and contains some of the information I use, but not all for the sake of time. I appreciate everyone for reading and hope this information is useful, whether it is followed or something inspires the opposite bet. Again, Thank you for reading!

[spladle08]

Thanks and good luck man

[Inkwell77]

Dig it! This Az State team is good, USC and Mizzou were quality games. This line is tight and was hoping for more of a pk em type of line. It seems like Utah is getting a bit of an awakening when it comes to the Pac-12. 0-2 so far, very good chance at 0-3.

[moses millsap]

good luck gf, you've been doing very well this year

[mstone897]

Utah QB was hurt last week and I know during the ASU game they said he was doubtful. Anyone hear anything about that?

Fawkes, I'm with you on this one. I really like this play.

[mstone897]

Answered my own question:

Junior college transfer Jon Hays will “most certainly” be Utah’s starting quarterback when the Utes host No. 22 Arizona State this weekend at Rice-Eccles Stadium, coach Kyle Whittingham said Monday.

Utah’s starting QB, junior Jordan Wynn, suffered an injury to his non-throwing shoulder in the first half of Utah’s Pac-12 home debut against Washington on Saturday and did not play in the second half of the 31-14 loss to the Huskies.

Wynn, who injured his throwing shoulder late last season and had offseason surgery to repair it, was still being examined Monday afternoon.

The Utes plan to make a statement later today regarding Wynn’s future, but Whittingham hinted that it could be a long-term injury.

Hays, who transferred from Nebraska-Omaha before the start of preseason practice, played during the second half against the Huskies and was only sporadically effective. But he will get a full week of preparation for Saturday’s game against the Sun Devils.

[guy Fawkes]

Answered my own question:

Junior college transfer Jon Hays will “most certainly” be Utah’s starting quarterback when the Utes host No. 22 Arizona State this weekend at Rice-Eccles Stadium, coach Kyle Whittingham said Monday.

Utah’s starting QB, junior Jordan Wynn, suffered an injury to his non-throwing shoulder in the first half of Utah’s Pac-12 home debut against Washington on Saturday and did not play in the second half of the 31-14 loss to the Huskies.

Wynn, who injured his throwing shoulder late last season and had offseason surgery to repair it, was still being examined Monday afternoon.

The Utes plan to make a statement later today regarding Wynn’s future, but Whittingham hinted that it could be a long-term injury.

Hays, who transferred from Nebraska-Omaha before the start of preseason practice, played during the second half against the Huskies and was only sporadically effective. But he will get a full week of preparation for Saturday’s game against the Sun Devils.

Was just about to post the same thing when I saw you did my work for me A very large portion of this write up was aimed at Hays and I'm glad to see it's been solidly confirmed. Hays did complete 10 of 16, but through an interception as well. One week of preparation doesn't deter me too much from my analysis, practice is good; game-time against a ranked opponent is another universe entirely.

good luck gf, you've been doing very well this year

Been doing very well. Luck has certainly been on my side in a few spots and I'm not ashamed to admit it. I have a few dogs I'm still running numbers on, but there are a lot of non-publicized games this week that should have great earning potential. Looking to get a write-up on Central Michigan @ North Carolina State later this week.

Thanks for all the support so far everyone! Good luck out there!

[mstone897]

Was just about to post the same thing when I saw you did my work for me A very large portion of this write up was aimed at Hays and I'm glad to see it's been solidly confirmed. Hays did complete 10 of 16, but through an interception as well. One week of preparation doesn't deter me too much from my analysis, practice is good; game-time against a ranked opponent is another universe entirely.

Agreed. I just locked it in at -3. Didn't want to risk it going up.

[Elevated]

Great write up Fawkes.. I too, have them circled as a big play for this weekend. One of my bigger plays! GL

[72'RoseBowlChamp]

I just hope the devils don't turn the ball over as much as they did against the Oregon State

[guy Fawkes]

I just hope the devils don't turn the ball over as much as they did against the Oregon State

Certainly in the back of my mind. I don't see Utah taking full advantage of turnovers however as Utah is only scoring in the Red Zone 54.6% of their possessions. Coleman Petersen (K jr.) is 4 for 6 on field goals this season for Utah and doesn't scare me.

Thanks for all the compliments so far everyone! It seems like not many people like Utah here.

[guy Fawkes]

I don't mean to bump my own thread, but I am perplexed. Line opened at AZ St. -3, since then Utah's starting QB is confirmed injured for 2-3 weeks+, Hays his backup has only taken an official snap in 2 games after transferring from Nebraska-Omaha because they shut down the football program from under him, his backup is a true freshman Tyler Shreve AND Whittingham (coach) admitted to changing the entire offensive scheme so that Hays could play after practicing this week.

I really want to go all-in here, but I know that anything can and will happen in college football. I don't understand why the line increases by 1/2 point after all of this comes out this week.

[AZ*SUN*iBET4FUN]

I went to the USC game, bet against my team ASU, and now i'm a believer. I like ASU -3 here.. putting 5.5x to win 5x myself.. LEts cash it Devils

[spladle08]

lol dont scare me

[Urbanwildlife]

Great thread, and I am interested in reading more quality opinions on this game.

[guy Fawkes]

Adding UTAH TT Under 22.5 for 2u as advertised above.

[Urbanwildlife]

I just took Arizona State for a dime. It is just to good of a line to pass up. Got it at -3 118 juice.

[guy Fawkes]

I just took Arizona State for a dime. It is just to good of a line to pass up. Got it at -3 118 juice.

Right on man! GL to both of us

[Urbanwildlife]

Thank you, and the info. you posted was very helpful, and influenced my decision.

[Urbanwildlife]

.....

[Urbanwildlife]

bump .... still would like to hear others opinions on this game, as I am considering another dime bet on it.

[Demonata]

Great thread man. I got ASU to be leading at the half. 213 to win 142. Utah without there starting QB against a team undefeated in the conference. Also with how good there defense is playing a utah team that totally sucks now. Good luck.

[Demonata]

Tie game.7-7 Dang ASU quarterback is so tall.

[Urbanwildlife]

GO ASU!!! We need some points off this interception. I do have to say that the defense of Utah has been pretty impressive so far.

[guy Fawkes]

I hate to agree with the announcers, but Osweiler is completely rattled right now. Has thrown 4 of the same play, twice for negative yards. We need to survive until halftime right now, did not expect this...

[Urbanwildlife]

I am not impressed by Osweiler at all. This is the first time I have watched him.

[Demonata]

Holding

[Urbanwildlife]

This drive should give Osweiler some confidence, and I think the entire offense is getting into the flow. Let's take the stroll to the pay window boys!

[Demonata]

This drive should give Osweiler some confidence, and I think the entire offense is getting into the flow. Let's take the stroll to the pay window boys!

Man I bet the first half for ASU to be leading so I'm sweating it out right now.

[Urbanwildlife]

You will be alright! Enjoy the stroll to the pay window!

[Demonata]

Man stop utah already.

[Demonata]

I'm doomed.

[Urbanwildlife]

Fcuk! There was an interception and they cannot fricking catch it.

[Demonata]

YAaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa a

[Urbanwildlife]

Take your stroll! I told you no problema!