[BobHarvey]

Guys,

I'd like to start a thread here and talk about Friday night's Boise State and Fresno State game. I've seen the number as low as Boise -19.5 and as high as 21.

I think its becoming painfully obvious that Boise State is not capable of covering these three and four touchdown spreads. I realize playing them is as square as it comes, but there was a time when they actually covered these games with ease and that's not the case anymore.

Could it change this week? They've dropped 51-51-61 on Fresno State the past three years plus the Bulldogs just got WAC-KED over the weekend by Ole Miss. Even a bad SEC team is better than a run of the mill WAC team IMO.

Anyway I'd appreciate your thoughts and maybe an idea or two about the line movement this week or anything pertaining to the game.

[bigboydan]

This is a tough matchup to me because Fresno St. isn't all that great of team this year either IMO.

[suicidekings]

It has less to do with being able to cover these spreads and more to do with them not needing to. Blowing out substantially weaker teams has to get old quickly. I'd say the 1H line is a much better bet

[ManBearPig]

I'm a Nev fan and am familiar with the WAC and although Boise is no longer a member they still have ties familiarity here.

I typically will play Boise to cover 1H only as they are historically a strong 1H team as they jump on teams early and coast and don't play as well in the 2H allowing for a lot of backdoor covers. I have done well playing them like this against less competition although I'm curious how this will do this season.

I really think they are somewhat bored and don't care about blowing out teams as much as they did in the past thus not covering these large spreads as easy as they used to. They'll get up for games against top notch competition, but most of their competition doesn't qualify as such which leads me to believe motivation is more of a factor than before.

They do look off this year on offense, but they aren't. Kellen Moore is still a stud and can put up numbers. They just have a really good defense that is picking up a lot of the slack and taking pressure off the offense to put up 50+ pts to win, although they aren't putting up the numbers we're accustomed to but they are fully capable.

Watching the Nevada game the score was closer than it really was as they missed quite a few scoring opportunities that they normally don't and our defense is the only thing keeping us remotely competitive as they are underrated because most know us for our offense. Even with them playing for revenge of last year it just didn't feel the same and this probably had to do with different personnel and Boise just looked like they were going through the motions at times.

Fresno is over matched here, but they are at home and playing on Friday night as one of the only games on TV so there may be some extra motivation, but not enough to make this upset. I will again look at the 1H line and probably make a play on the 1H as long as it should be in the 14-17 range.


Sorry for the book, but I tried to hit key pts in short that I thought would be helpful here. Hope it helps.

[jjax107]

Bottom line is voters are still looking to see week in and week out if Boise covers spread. They haven't the last 2 weeks, which is why dropped a spot. If they don't cover again and top 8 teams keeps winning they'll drop another one. They're 2-0 covering on road and 0-2 at home. But them covering rest of season is difference in them going to new Orleans to play sugar bowl vs LSU or going to new Orleans for the BCS title game to play Alabama...there choice

[Ice House]

where is this game going to be played? If it's a boise state why wouldn't they cover?


They need to win every game by 40 points or they have zero shot at playing for the national title..... There are probably 50 teams in the country that could play boise states schedule and go undefeated.

[brahmabull117]

where is this game going to be played? If it's a boise state why wouldn't they cover? They need to win every game by 40 points or they have zero shot at playing for the national title..... There are probably 50 teams in the country that could play boise states schedule and go undefeated.

have u not been watching football last 2 weeks???


boise has mysteriously stopped covering spreads they used to cover with ease in the past

[ManBearPig]

Boise will not be going to the NC game this year even though they will be undefeated. There could be 3 or 4 teams from BCS conferences that finish undefeated as well and BSU will obviously be the odd man out. They will always have the decked stacked against them and it would take the perfect series of events for them to have a shot at a NC, which I think may have come and gone last season.

Boise lost a lot of speed on the outside with Pettis and Young graduating and with it went a lot of these easy TD's we have become accustomed to seeing from them. They were able to to do a lot of things with them to open the field up that they just can't do this year and I'm sure it's limiting them on offense. Notice how Martin is having a harder time running up the field this year as opposed to last. Defenses are able to key in on the run game more with an extra man and put more pressure on Moore, because they don't have to worry about being beat deep thus eliminating a lot of his long runs and easy scores.

[Balco10]

Boise St need to win by 40 to make up for last weeks average win against Nevada. They don't have the same speedy WRs and Moore e has shown his mistakes with average playmakers.

[brahmabull117]

Boise will not be going to the NC game this year even though they will be undefeated. There could be 3 or 4 teams from BCS conferences that finish undefeated as well and BSU will obviously be the odd man out. They will always have the decked stacked against them and it would take the perfect series of events for them to have a shot at a NC, which I think may have come and gone last season. Boise lost a lot of speed on the outside with Pettis and Young graduating and with it went a lot of these easy TD's we have become accustomed to seeing from them. They were able to to do a lot of things with them to open the field up that they just can't do this year and I'm sure it's limiting them on offense. Notice how Martin is having a harder time running up the field this year as opposed to last. Defenses are able to key in on the run game more with an extra man and put more pressure on Moore, because they don't have to worry about being beat deep thus eliminating a lot of his long runs and easy scores.

I think people are overestimating boise's "fall from grace" this year



the main reason they aren't covering spreads is because they're not trying to finish games off like they used to in the past...they have dominated all 4 games so far and none of them have really been in jeapordy. They were up 34-0 and basically treated their game against Tulsa like a glorified scrimmage...after that point, they brought in their backup qb who was terrible and their defense gave up some garbage time points to allow the backdoor cover. That game was nowhere near as close as the final score indicates


Same thing with Nevada, they completely dominated that game. People are forgetting that Boise is 4-0 ATS in first half of games this year (basically tells you that when they try, they're unstoppable)


in this game, I think both the boise 1st half spread and a teaser is a VERY safe play. Fresno state does not have anywhere near the talent on either side of the ball to play a close game with Boise. If you can tease that line below 14, you're in a great position because boise is not gonna take their foot off the gas until they're up 27-35 and then it's impossible to get backdoored with a 14 point spread

[Retrospect]

i love u brah... what r we teasing it with..?

[brahmabull117]

i love u brah... what r we teasing it with..?

Oregon
Oregon Over
Baylor Over
Georgia Tech
Georgia tech over
Kansas/OKst Over



lots of safe plays this week

[Ice House]

have u not been watching football last 2 weeks???


boise has mysteriously stopped covering spreads they used to cover with ease in the past

i don't watch boise state .... I saw some of that UGA vs Boise State game but I normally don't watch them. They are alwasy playing cupcake teams and favored by 20-30 points...


I know the first half line is popular on Boise State -12.5 but since this game is at Fresno State i don't know if I like that bet. Fans could have an early impact on this game.

[fud007]

Its going to be interesting to see if the drop from 4 to 5 has any impact on Boise State. I expect to see them start running scores up again.... there is just no way they are going to get any respect beating teams on their powder puff schedule 30-10 (and rightfully so)

[Ice House]

how good is Fresno States offense?

[letsgo]

have u not been watching football last 2 weeks???


boise has mysteriously stopped covering spreads they used to cover with ease in the past

There is no mystery as to why they haven't been covering the spreads, they don't want to or have to, so they are putting in backups when the game is out of reach.

It is not like the 1st team offense is getting shut down late, they just stop trying and pull Moore out of the games.

[Darkside Magick]

ran some early numbers.. have boise st winning by 26 with a +/-4.5 deviation....good spot to pound boise state here!!!!

[letsgo]

ran some early numbers.. have boise st winning by 26 with a +/-4.5 deviation....good spot to pound boise state here!!!!

Numbers probably said the same thing the past two weeks and how did that turn out?

What people don't understand is that Boise can easily win this by 35+, but whether they choose to or not is up in the air.

[brahmabull117]

There is no mystery as to why they haven't been covering the spreads, they don't want to or have to, so they are putting in backups when the game is out of reach. It is not like the 1st team offense is getting shut down late, they just stop trying and pull Moore out of the games.

but they dropped from #4 to #5 in the rankings this week


chris peterson I'm sure understands that his team is gonna keep falling in the rankings until they start winning games by 30-40 points again, does he not care???


I'm just baffled by it, have they give up any hopes of making it to BCS title game?

[Dax]

All this chatter about the spread what are your guys thought about the Total for this game?

Bob just added another article just focusing on the game total, make sure to check it out click here to read more...

[letsgo]

but they dropped from #4 to #5 in the rankings this week


chris peterson I'm sure understands that his team is gonna keep falling in the rankings until they start winning games by 30-40 points again, does he not care???


I'm just baffled by it, have they give up any hopes of making it to BCS title game?

So you think if they would have won by 30 points this past weekend, it would have prevented Wisconsin from jumping them after they spank Nebraska?

Boise could win 100-0 but they aren't going to go up in the Rankings until the other teams lose at this point.

[rsktkr]

All this chatter about the spread what are your guys thought about the Total for this game?

Bob just added another article just focusing on the game total, make sure to check it out click here to read more...

With 94% betting the over, I think I'm going the other way.

[Duby]

The way to play Boise this year is first half. Their defense will shutdown Fresno in the first half.

[72'RoseBowlChamp]

From Fresno, went to alot of games during the david carr era and watch them as much as I can. I see Boise taking this one by at least 30. I see JIM SWEENEY Field getting cleared out early, blowout responsible. Yes the dogs put up points against Nebraska, and CAL but look at their games like only beating North Dakota by 5! There big play makers are (RSSO) Derek Carr who the coaching staff says is better than David was during his SO year. Also RB Robbie Rouse who averages 120 YPG and LB Travis Brown who has 40 tackles on the year. Plus the rivaley is also in affect here! Which the Bulldogs have only beaten the Broncos 1 time! I also think of weaker conference teams that Boise has played like Toledo. Toledo lost the game by 35 points and played a pretty good first half against the Broncos. I just don't see the bulldogs playing a better game than even Toledo against Boise.

Who else feels good about Boise covering?????

[capper123]

dont underestimate boises power... they can beat anyone on any stage when moore is healthy. hes as accurate as they come. boise covers dont stress over it.

[brahmabull117]

heads up for those betting on this game



Boise gets their most talented receiver, geraldo B, back tomorrow (he was ineligible for some reason). This guy is 6-4 and runs a 4.40. He's a tremendous talent but a little bit raw but he should have a ton of success as long as he can catch perfectly thrown balls to his chest


he should help boise's offense be a little bit more dynamic down the field and hopefully they can build a 30-40 point lead in this one to avoid any chance of a backdoor cover

[ebbearsfb1]

one week brahama says boise coach is betting on his team cause he is trying to cover the spread now he is changing his tune.. what else is new...

[brahmabull117]

one week brahama says boise coach is betting on his team cause he is trying to cover the spread now he is changing his tune.. what else is new...

they used to be like that but have mysteriously stopped trying to cover spreads last 2 games



they had 1 home win last year by less than 30 points and they already have 2. I personally have this line teased down to 13.5 so I have no real risk of getting backdoored

[Pivotpoint]

Tough game to cap. Still remember two weeks back on Boise's first homegame when Moore had a cap on in 2nd half and a Freshman qb ran the offense. Boise was looking great and all the sudden I knew I was screwed. How motivated will Boise be when they play a team they have beaten the hell out of the last five games? Will Moore be watching in the second half again, if Boise grabs a big lead? Sucks if that's the case when you're laying lumber.

Boise looked better last week on defense. Fresno roughed up last week by a physical SEC team, Ole Miss. QB Carr not bad. I like Fresno RB Robbie Rouse. Fresno Run defense sucks, can Boise take advantage? Fresno d-backs look better this year and have played three games holding oppossing pass offenses to under 50% completions. You look at Boise this year and their defense is giving up more yards per carry over last year and Boise run attack is weaker than last years team. Boise is 10-1 ats last 11 on the road. Boise numbers drop hard historically after Nevada and that was a big revenge game. Looks like a wash?

Bulldogs have some numbers that make you struggle more in picking a side. Fresno 8-1 ats as non -conference home pups. Bulldogs 22-5-1 ats as non-conf dog of +5 points or more.

I do like the fact that Boise should be up for a National audience on Friday night. Fresno fans should be motivated as well. If Moore starts to torch them, they could be sitting on their hands before you know it.

Lots of questions. I think the lines on Oregon/Cal and Boise/Fresno are very sharp. Tough to find an edge and public will pound both favorites. Personally, I'm leaning towards teasing Oregon and Boise together. Spread is to high to tease a round robin out with the total on either game with Oregon and Boise, or a parlay for that matter. I have a bad feeling that you will sweat this game out with backdoor covers looming till the final gun.

With all that said, I talked myself into teasing these two games at (7)

Oregon -17
Boise - 13 1/2
120/100

Glta