How is no one talking about this betting opportunity tonight?
Duke Blue Devils @ Florida International Panthers
Play: Florida International -3 (-125) @5Dimes
Rating: Top Play
I am targeting a game that definitely does not have a major handle attached to it. This game has a 7PM EST start time attached to it which means not many people will be tuning in. Unfortunately for most, they will be missing out on a major money making opportunity.
Florida International was the early upstart team of the season with a big Thursday Night victory two weeks ago in Louisville. After rattling off three straight wins both on the score board and at the betting window, the oddsmakers and opposition caught up to the Golden Panthers. University of Louisiana went into Miami last week and handed the Panthers the first defeat of the season. FIU was getting poll votes for the first time in program history going into last week. There was a major amount of hype surrounding the team. Unfortunately for fans and backers, star receiver T.Y. Hilton and starting quarterback, Wesley Carroll were both knocked out of the game. As many people look at this game as a giant hole in the season for FIU, I can still pull out the positive. Through the first three games of the season, this team was strictly Carroll and Hilton. They never explored other offensive options on their team because they did not need too. Last weeks game allowed this team to find strength in other offensive options. Even though Hilton and Carroll are both in the line-up today, I expect this offense to have a more well rounded approach against Duke.
For numerous people betting the box score, this game presents major value in Duke. I think this is major deception considering the line. Duke is not nearly as good as they looked last week and FIU is not nearly as bad as they looked last week. I know a lot of people will give the argument in regards to who these teams have played. You can not take this into factor because neither of these two teams have played anyone decent besides for one game each. Duke got floored by Stanford at home. FIU won on the road in Louisville. By no means am I comparing Louisville to Stanford, but I am proving how you can’t use the scheduling argument in this game because neither of these teams have played any schedule of meaning. You have to take into account the teams playing and the talent they possess in order to have an accurate analysis and a legitimate prediction against the point spread. A vast majority of people betting have not watched a Duke game this season and maybe a slightly less number of people have not watched a FIU game this season. I have watched two full games of each and parts of the third and fourth. I know how this is going to play out.
For FIU this is a big game. This is the teams second chance to get a victory over a BCS team. Their first win came two weeks ago against Louisville. What people seem to forget is that this program is extremely new. They have only been around for a decade now. Every time the team gets a chance to play a team from the BCS they get up for the game. They have yet to get a victory over a team from the ACC and will be at full power and health tonight. T.Y. Hilton showed how he can completely take over a game in a single play in that game against Louisville and should have no difficulty piling up more yards to go on top of his 395 this season and 102.5 yards per game average. Florida International quarterback Wesley Carroll will have plenty of time behind a superior offensive line as Duke lost their top pass rusher Kenny Anunike to injury last week. Anunike was the defensive leader of this team and has lead the conference in sacks. Dukes defense appeared to be taking a step in the right direction with a good combination between Anunike and Matt Daniels at safety. I think the defense is in for a major down game as they face a FIU offense that has arguably the most explosive player maker in the nation lining up on the outside without their leader. I expect to see a lot of mistakes from this defense today, in formations, in coverage assignments and all around.
Offensively Duke has been rolling in the past two games. Today however they run into a road block in Miami. Florida International has had the spotlight on their potent offense. It is their defense that has been winning them games. In the first three outings, the FIU defense was holding teams to two touchdowns or less. They have a RELENTLESS pass rush. So far this year they have a total of 15 sacks and are a +6 in turnover margin. They also turn teams into one dimensional attacks as this steady rush has allowed an average of just 3.2 yards per carry. I think the major match-up in this game is not so much on the offense as it is on the defense. As good as the Blue Devils passing attack has looked, it has shown weakness to rushes off the outside. All eight sacks that the Blue Devils have given up this year have come off the outside. Of the 15 sacks FIU has piled up 13 have come off the outside edge. Duke’s two lowest point totals this year (14 and 20) have come against teams with a defense ranking in the top 75 overall and top 50 against the Pass. Dukes’ two highest point totals have come against teams outside the top 100. Florida International is 65th and 42nd. When the rush is there, the offense is not for Duke.
Oddsmakers have this set as a shootout, which is very well could be. As I said, the difference will not be in the Panthers shutting down Duke, but slowing them down. I can’t see how Duke can slow down the Panthers which means in order to not get the blazing cover here tonight the Panthers will have to beat themselves here tonight. Against a BCS opponent, there is zero chance in that happening. For those of you able to watch this game, strap in, because this is going to be a good one.
Florida International Panthers 35 - Duke Blue Devils 24
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How is no one talking about this betting opportunity tonight?
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