Posted picks 2-0-0 +15.5u
Hey SBR Forums! I looked for my dog this week and I found it. Not expecting many people to agree with me today, but information is always good; agree or otherwise. As always, feel free to post anything and everything and thanks for taking the time to read!
Auburn @ South Carolina
Auburn is 3-1. I think that's a statistic a lot of people (including experts) have overlooked. Are they lucky to be 3-1? Probably. If you throw out the Clemson game and one key play against Utah State I could easily see Auburn ranked in the top 10 and bumping the Gamecocks lower. That being said, reality is what it is. You can't change it to pick teams as you wish. What I believe you can do (and what I believe Gene Chizik has done for his team) is acknowledge it and establish where you are here-and-now. Auburn is 3-1 with a young defense who has made a lot of mistakes in the early part of this season.
Stats With 1495 total yards of offense, Auburn is right about where they should be. Barrett Trotter (QB jr.) is averaging a passer rating of 148.7, 33rd best in the NCAA. Backing up Trotter is a stud in Michael Dyer (RB so.). Dyer is averaging 6.9 yards per carry (7th highest in the NCAA for RBs with more than 50 carries) and scored 6 TDs, 2 each in the harder fought games this season. The little guy (5'9") plays big in big games, in Auburns one loss this year Dyer ran for 16 carries and 151 yards averaging 9.4 yards per carry. Auburn's defense has been abysmal this season. They are giving up an average of 100 yards per game more than the Gamecocks. There are also two defensive lineman that are not likely to see game time for the season in Justin Delaine and Dee Ford. There is no getting around it, the defense has to find a way to play.
South Carolina is 4-0. I think that's a statistic a lot of people (including experts) have given too much credit. Are they lucky to be 4-0? Probably not. The Gamecocks have had the benefit of an easy road and a lot of publicity this year. South Carolina lacks any consistency through the air and will allow Auburn to stack the box against Marcus Lattimore (RB so.).
Stats South Carolina has received a lot of flak this year for its defense not playing up to its potential allowing 21 points to Navy, 42 points to Georgia and 37 points to East Carolina. I won't deny the Gamecocks held Vandy to 3 points last week, but you can take that for what you will. Taking the Vandy game out of the equation, the Gamecocks have given up an average of 372 total yards per game and allowed 274 rushing yards against Navy. Stephen Garcia (QB sr.) has thrown 7 interceptions and 3 TDs this year, completing 54.7% of his passes for 684 yards through 4 games, averaging a dismal 171 yards per game and boasting a 110.9 passer rating. Marcus Lattimore is amazing, there is no getting around that. He is averaging 5.7 yards per carry on 107 attempts scoring 9 of SC's 11 offensive TDs this year (8 on the ground and 1 through the air). Spurrier is determined to get the ball in Lattimore's hands and Auburn knows it.
Trends Firstly, the Gamecocks have never beaten Auburn. Ever. Auburn is 4-1-1 ATS since 1996 (I don't think digging back to 1964 is overly prudent).
With both defenses being sub-par the biggest statistic I am looking at is that the Gamecocks are scoring only 2.2 points more per game than Auburn is against a tougher schedule.
Personal ThoughtsAuburn is not out of contention at this point. Auburn found a way to win against an underrated Utah State offense and only went down against a Clemson team that is on fire right now. Look for Chizik to rally his players and communicate this hinge-point of Auburns season.
Auburn is going to stuff the box against Lattimore; its virtually a given. Garcia will have to go to the air against a very physical Auburn secondary who snagged 3 turnovers last week.
For anyone reading for totals info, I really like the under for this game. Obviously that flies in the face of everything I just wrote (and explains why I'm not using it as a posted play), but I like to use different stats in determining totals. I see this coming down as a 28-20 game.
My picks
Auburn +10.5 @ 5.5u
Auburn ML @ 2u
May try to squeeze one more write up in before tomorrow morning on Texas @ Iowa State or Washington @ Utah. Thanks for reading!