[LT Profits]

I always wondered about this trend..

Can you tell me how many times (win rate) an underdog covered when a top 25 team plays a non-top 25 team, for the last year, 2 years, whatever. I always feel the lines for top 25 teams are inflated, had no way to prove it.

Can anybody look this up?

No, I don't have rankings in my DB. Maybe the OP does?

[TheEditor]

I do have rankings in mine. AP going back to 1990. The record for this one is I think pretty close to 50-50. I'll run it.

[ManBearPig]

SporsDatabase basically does the same thing, one just needs to learn a little SDQL.

[TheEditor]

Umm........ mine has a few more fields than SportsDatabase.

[TheEditor]

Ranked faves vs unranked dogs - 1873-2009, -0.29 pts/game

[MartinBlank]

What say the Magic 8 Ball......was the OP trying get himself some points for absolutely worthless data?

Do tell, what does the Arkansas team of 1990 have to do with anything going on in today's world of college football.

Nothing. Neither does any other team. You never had to create a database for 23 years worth of CFD because they game itself has changed----from new teams, to conference affiliations to the increase in television exposure---to schools being hammered by the NCAA----all those insane variable make that date worthless.

[TheEditor]

It is.

[TheEditor]

Like your avatar. That's where I grew up.

[G's pks]

[Inkwell77]

Can someone tell me (spread wise) how 3-0 ats teams fare against 0-3 ats teams?

Or undefeated teams ats versus winless ats teams with more than 2 games played for each team?

That would be awesome!

[TheEditor]

The changing landscape only creates opportunities for my stuff.

FWIW, I do think that in 1990 they still played with 11 per side. I think. Maybe I'm wrong on that.

[TheEditor]

That just doesn't happen enough to generate a meaningful sample. For your second formulation I get only a couple dozen games with a big nothingburger mark.

Can someone tell me (spread wise) how 3-0 ats teams fare against 0-3 ats teams? Or undefeated teams ats versus winless ats teams with more than 2 games played for each team? That would be awesome!

[TheEditor]

I'm pretty sure that the Hogs still play *in* Arkansas.

Do tell, what does the Arkansas team of 1990 have to do with anything going on in today's world of college football.

[chopperocker]

road favs of -3 to -6.5 vs. conference opponent ?

[vagolf]

I like this. How about ranked opponents playing each other. Lower ranked as a dog v. Higher ranked as fav and vice versa (break it down home/away if you can)

[TheEditor]

In general, ranked vs ranked have gone to the home teams and the faves.

I like this. How about ranked opponents playing each other. Lower ranked as a dog v. Higher ranked as fav and vice versa (break it down home/away if you can)

[TheEditor]

419-439 ATS, -0.14 pts/game

Nothing, in other words.

road favs of -3 to -6.5 vs. conference opponent ?

[TheEditor]

The counter to this argument is that if you can find something that works thru all those different environments you're a bit more likely to be looking at something that is real.

You never had to create a database for 23 years worth of CFD because they game itself has changed----from new teams, to conference affiliations to the increase in television exposure---to schools being hammered by the NCAA----all those insane variable make that date worthless.

[MartinBlank]

I'm pretty sure that the Hogs still play *in* Arkansas.

You're missing the point.

For the most part----The kids playing on today's Arkansas team-----weren't even alive in 1990.

You can't possibly believe that there is any correlation between Arkansas (and they are my example) in 1990 and Arkansas in 2011, I mean besides the fact that they both play for the same university.

It's a silly exercise.

I mean, my god--- Penn State wasn't even in the Big 10 in 1990---so how can you possibly draw any relationship between the schedule they played 21 years ago, and the one they play today?

Bottom line this for everyone.

What are you trying to sell? Software? I mean, week 4 is usually when the Touts make their SBR appearance---you seem to be going in another direction....selling shit.

[TheEditor]

You're missing the point.

Its called sarcasm.

I don't do a lot of team trend stuff. Not a big enough sample size. Occasionally a coach develops some tendencies so I do look a bit. Tom O'Brien, Frank Beamer. The guy at Oregon State. I miss Jim Wacker. Before Bowden's FSU entered a conference he had some tendencies. Tressel had some too. But spending much time on that ain't worth it.

Though I do agree there is shit here.

[ManBearPig]

Umm........ mine has a few more fields than SportsDatabase.

ummm....I can query them and can't query your unless I put in a request...or I can just request them to add and they will...problem solved.

[TheEditor]

I'm not selling anything. Do what you will. Thought as a newcomer I'd try to contribute before taking. But hey, if you local poobahs think me evil I can go.

Do you treat all newbies like this?

[MartinBlank]

Well, we are gamblers, and as such---are cynical and jaded.

When someone shows up with something "free", it usually isn't free. And my cynical meter was buried when you asked for points.

If you really are offering up something for free-----much appreciated.

[Inkwell77]

Its called sarcasm.

I don't do a lot of team trend stuff. Not a big enough sample size. Occasionally a coach develops some tendencies so I do look a bit. Tom O'Brien, Frank Beamer. The guy at Oregon State. I miss Jim Wacker. Before Bowden's FSU entered a conference he had some tendencies. Tressel had some too. But spending much time on that ain't worth it.

Though I do agree there is shit here.

Seriously, I have known about his inept ability to coach in September for years now and I still did not bet against them this year, would have been 3-0 ats.

[LT Profits]

What say the Magic 8 Ball......was the OP trying get himself some points for absolutely worthless data?

Do tell, what does the Arkansas team of 1990 have to do with anything going on in today's world of college football.

Nothing. Neither does any other team. You never had to create a database for 23 years worth of CFD because they game itself has changed----from new teams, to conference affiliations to the increase in television exposure---to schools being hammered by the NCAA----all those insane variable make that date worthless.

You are talking about team-specific data, which I agree is worthless even with many short term trends. The goal is to find league-wide data that can be useful, as those don't care about the teams and are generally only affected by rule changes that have a major impact on the game. The last such rule was the addition of overtime in 1998, so it is fine to use data since then to find something useful. Even there though, be careful what you use and look for. If you find something like home favorite of -7 to -9.5 are hitting at 58%, that is bullshit variance and means nothing. But if you find something like teams that have lost 2 straight games by at least 25 points each are 59%, then you may be on to something because there are undervalued teams that nobody wants to bet.

[chopperocker]

one more kind sir ?

Home Teams of -1 to +1 vs. Conference opponent.

[TheEditor]

I'll get that for you in about 90 mins. Life intrudes.

[Wrecktangle]

How far back do you go? I go back to 1985 but I usually only use data since 1998 (first year of overtime).

The NCAA Rules Committee began addressing this issue in 1992. For a detailed explanation and history of over time please know Overtime was instituted by the NCAA Football Rules Committee in 1996. The tie game was eliminated in Division I-A under rules that went into effect with the 1996 regular season. The system, already used in other divisions, had been installed for postseason play in 1995 and first was used in the Las Vegas Bowl, where Toledo edged Nevada 40-37 in overtime.

http://en.allexperts.com/q/College-F...ule-Change.htm

[LT Profits]

The NCAA Rules Committee began addressing this issue in 1992. For a detailed explanation and history of over time please know Overtime was instituted by the NCAA Football Rules Committee in 1996. The tie game was eliminated in Division I-A under rules that went into effect with the 1996 regular season. The system, already used in other divisions, had been installed for postseason play in 1995 and first was used in the Las Vegas Bowl, where Toledo edged Nevada 40-37 in overtime.

http://en.allexperts.com/q/College-F...ule-Change.htm

I'm sorry, overtime did start in 1996, BUT 1998 was the year the rule was instituted requiring teams to go for two points beginning with the third overtime. Correct?

[TheEditor]

OT didn't change the game *that* much. More important were changes like the BCS.

[TheEditor]

147-143 ATS, +0.52 pts/game

Sorry for being late.

one more kind sir ? Home Teams of -1 to +1 vs. Conference opponent.

[TheEditor]

Didn't think there was much here, but decided to futz with it because that's what I do.

Occurred to me to look at the records of the two teams, because the line say the roadie is a little bit better than the home team.

If the home team has a better than or equal record, the mark is 49-66 ATS, -2.22 pts/game. That is a little more interesting. Because that is a pretty sharp split - when the road team's record is better (as it usually is) the record is 84-71 ATS, +1.88 pts/game. That is a pretty sharp cleavage. Food for thought. And more futzing.

[chopperocker]

Didn't think there was much here, but decided to futz with it because that's what I do.

Occurred to me to look at the records of the two teams, because the line say the roadie is a little bit better than the home team.

If the home team has a better than or equal record, the mark is 49-66 ATS, -2.22 pts/game. That is a little more interesting. Because that is a pretty sharp split - when the road team's record is better (as it usually is) the record is 84-71 ATS, +1.88 pts/game. That is a pretty sharp cleavage. Food for thought. And more futzing.

good stuff editor. i had New Mexico State +1 @ New Mexico. it cashed easily, but made me ponder the point spread trend.

[TheEditor]

Ack! I ran this thru my *NFL* db! Its Monday, and I was thinking MNF. Sorry. Busy now; I'll run the CFB later.

good stuff editor. i had New Mexico State +1 @ New Mexico. it cashed easily, but made me ponder the point spread trend.

[kiknit]

Ive got 2 for your DB: % of Home Dogs Under The Lights that covered and how many dogs/favs covered/did not cover as a result of the hook at the major number (2.5 vs 3 vs 3.5...6.5 vs 7 vs 7.5...9.5 vs 10 vs 10.5)