[Whosoevers]

There hasn't been many games that have jumped off the screen at me but this one is in my ear!! I think this may be an A+, pick if there ever was one. Personally, I see Tennessee getting ahead early and quieting the crowd en route to a 7+ pt. victory, but at the very least this comes down to the wire. Zero line movement from open to close BTW.

I'm buying a point, locking in TENN +10.5, and dropping the dough

Thoughts??? somebody give me one of these

[OnlyMayo]

Im on FL...

Why are you buying a point if this game "screams" out to you?

[Whosoevers]

Because this game just "shouts".....not quite "screams".

G/L Mayo

[FeelinJuiced]

Just be careful... Tennesse hasn't played a whole lot yet. I went to UC and was at the game last weekend and trust me Cincy doesn't have much defense. Not saying it wasn't a good game but UT hasn't been really tested yet.

Although I do think Tennessees QB is legit and 9.5 is a lot of points but the swamp is enough to scare me off Tenn. But that's why it's gambling, good luck everyone!

[aimgator]

Florida wins this game. period..... if the spread was -7, id play it...... -9.5 is not tempting enough to bite.

[Gatoraider]

Tyler Bray has yet to play in a hostile environment. Florida has a legit defense, and with Sheriff Floyd back in action I see Fla putting ALOT of pressure on Bray. I see Fla winning this one 31-10.

GL TO ALL

[HoulihansTX]

Buying to 10 is one of the more wasteful moves in gambling.

7, and 3 are all you need in foots.

[bigmick]

Bray is going into a hostile enviroment, but this kid is cool under pressure. Personally watched him in high school and have spoken to people who have coached him and they all say he's got ice in his veins. Doesn't ever think he is out of a game and does not get rattled, same type of personality as tiger woods, killer instinct but not emotional. The balls gonna be up in the air all game here, and I gotta believe this is the atmosphere this kid wanted to play in, or he would have left Tennessee after Kiffin bailed. I think 9.5 is too much but like the over more. good luck

[LittleLarryY]

Buying to 10 is one of the more wasteful moves in gambling.

7, and 3 are all you need in foots.

As a novice, I'm interested in the theory behind this. Could you provide more insight?

[jarvol]

Tennessee has covered 3 games in the Swamp......EVER.

[Romanov]

my model has fl winning by 15. bol regardless

[DrAwInGdEaD]

Tennessee is money!

[Gatoraider]

my model has fl winning by 15. bol regardless

How accurate is your model been in the past? What is it based off?

[dume walker]

As a novice, I'm interested in the theory behind this. Could you provide more insight?

7 and 3 are the most key numbers in football. 7 being a touchdown and an extra point; 3 being a field goal. In a close game the difference in score is likely to be one of those 2 numbers. So if you're going to buy points, you buy from -7.5 down to -7 or from -3.5 down to 3. The point that Houlihans was making is that buying down to any other number in football is a waste of money.

[HoulihansTX]

As a novice, I'm interested in the theory behind this. Could you provide more insight?

College foots games land on 3 (9.5%), land on 7 (7%), and land on 10(4%).

You do the math.

[LittleLarryY]

Ok. So what about all the other numbers? I'm not trying to be a jerk here, and maybe its a fallacy, but I'd imagine 10 is more likely than most other numbers. I was just amazed that it was basically called a sin and didn't really understand the rationale.

[ThaKidd]

you see tennessee winning by 7+ but the 9.5 theyre getting wasnt enough for you?

[Whosoevers]

I think they will win, but if I'm going to put $1,000 on the spread I would rather have +10.5 then +9.5. Now, someone please convince me why it matters that I bought an extra point as insurance for the worst case scenario- UF winning by 10. Teams never win by ten................If I was putting $100-$200 on it, then I'd be fine with the +9.5. It's not your $, so chillllll shirley. The pick is TENN +10.5.

[Whosoevers]

Regardless of the % of games landing on 3 and 7, the point spread of this game is 9.5 which is closest to what number?....10. So "Stat Dorks", find me the % of games with a spread 8.5-11 that land on 3,7,10. I'm going to draw a conclusion that the percentages for 10 are higher that of 3 and 7.

[RGG]

Don't bet on UT. Trust me. Gators cover.

[jerseydave77]

Gator D is great this year, offense is much improved and Tennesse is traditionally weak in The Swamp. A blowout is coming. Gators need to make a statement, this will be the first statement from a new coaching staff. Get ready to see the Gators go for the throat early and often.

[Whosoevers]

Honestly, I would like to think that the Gators are this and that, but I'm not sold on John Brantley and the offense. I would like it to be like the old days (well not that long ago, Timothy Richard) when I could count on Florida to win me some cash, but I remain unimpressed. Gator D???? Maybe you should throw in a "young" somewhere in there. I live in Jacksonville, and have plenty of Gator friends (unfortunately). And every single one thinks it will come down to the wire, and honestly are nervous about this game. Tennessee has actually played a decent (ok, average at best) team so far (Cincy) and looked sharp, while UF has looked vanilla vs. two scrubs (FAU, UAB). Tennessee knows this is the year to get some redemption for the beat downs given by UF over the last decade. So.....beat it homers. You go ahead and shell out your money for this cover. I am sold on Tennessee. They have consistent fire power on offense, and they are the ones out for blood. Gators could win but I do not see it being anywhere near 2 scores. Heres to a Rocky Top cover.

[jarvol]

Tennessee had consistent firepower in 20, 15, 10, 5 years ago too i.e Peyton Manning (0-3 vs UF and 0-2 in the Swamp) and an absolute ton of NFL talent and managed a 6-15 record against UF with only 2 wins and 3 covers in the Swamp. The talent on Rocky Top now and the past 2 or 3 years is a shadow of what it has been over the last 25 years. Trust me I was there. I witnessed UT blow a 31-14 lead and get blown the fukk out 62-37 and witnessed UF jump out to a 35-0 lead 20 minutes into a game and witnessed the pick 6s here and pick 6s there and that was when Tennessee had similar talent.

[Gatoraider]

Oh Rocky Top you'll always be 5th in the S.E.C..... Good ol' Rocky Top....

[thetrinity]

buying it to 10.5 lol, probably the dumbest thing in this ridiculous post.

[Gatoraider]

buying it to 10.5 lol, probably the dumbest thing in this ridiculous post.

agreed

[cant call it]

Oh Rocky Top you'll always be 5th in the S.E.C..... Good ol' Rocky Top....

maybe 5th in the sec east!

[tmgissy]

gators beat the vols by more than 14

[Gatoraider]

I have a bunch of guys who I work with who are UT fans.

I have FLA straight up with alot of, Im paying 2to1. Put I have FLA with no points!!

I like my chances

[Whosoevers]

Ha!! The Vols can be 5th or 10th in the SEC, I could care less. All I know (and care about) is they are covering this spread. Please tell me why buying up a point is the "dumb". See my explanation and offer a reason. I can go on any thread and say any # of things if I don't like other posts or picks, but atleast I offer an explanation. Homers........... Go GATA!!! You guys better hope for one of "the best DA fence plays" that we'll ever see!!! http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KgbBP9Em00A