[jeepsguy004]

Thursday Night Football this week has the number 3 ranked LSU Tigers heading out on the road to take on the number 25 ranked Mississippi State Bulldogs. The opening line on this game opened with LSU being a 3 point road favorite with a total set at 48.5. We have seen some movement on this line with most books offering LSU at -3.5 and a few with LSU at -3 -115. The total on this game has not moved yet and is still sitting at 48.5.
The 3rd ranked LSU Tigers enter tonight’s matchup 2-0 SU while going 1-1 ATS. LSU dropped 40 points on the Oregon Ducks to open the season as a 3 point home dog to pick up a convincing win and followed that performance with a 46 point win over Northwestern State as a 49 point favorite. The LSU defense did allow 27 points to Oregon on that opening night showdown and was outgained by 62 yards to them. The Tigers however held Northwestern State to 3 points and allowed just 95 total yards to them the following week.
The 25th ranked Mississippi State bulldogs enter this matchup 1-1 SU while going 1-1 ATS. The Bulldogs enter this matchup with some very impressive offensive performances this season. The Bulldogs won their opening game over Memphis by dropping 59 points on them while racking up 645 total yards on offense. They followed that performance up with scoring 34 points on Auburn while totaling 531 total yards of offense in a 7 point road loss. The defense has not been that impressive on stopping the run this season for the Bulldogs in which they are allowing 199.5 yards per game on the ground.
The series between the Tigers and Bulldogs has been one sided going back to 1995. The LSU Tigers are 15-1 SU in those meetings with the Bulldogs while going 12-4 ATS. The last three meetings though between these two teams have seen the Bulldogs go 2-1 ATS in those meetings while 2 of those 3 games went over the posted total. The over has actually been on a run between these two teams going 6-1 the last 7 meetings. The Bulldogs are actually 6-3-1 ATS the last 10 games when playing as an underdog of 4 or less points while LSU is 5-3-2 ATS the last 10 games as a favorite of 4 or less points and are 3-1-2 ATS the last 6 games as a road favorite of 4 or less points.
This line has me scratching my head. LSU is a very good team and they opened up as just a 3 point road favorite to this Mississippi State team that is coming off a heartbreaking loss to Auburn. Looking at this line it almost seems like the odds makers want you to take LSU. The problem is we have not seen sharp money come in on the Bulldogs since the line is going up so odds makers could be in a bit of trouble here. Maybe if this line gets to 3.5 and possibly 4 at more books the sharps might buy in and grab that extra point of insurance and hope for a field goal game.
I would recommend not playing the side on this game it could be a trap. To me it just seems the odds makers want the public to grab LSU and they were hoping the sharps would drop big money on the home dog. This is just too risky to play the side but the over might be a good play in this game. Both teams have played really well on offense this season and the Bulldogs defense has struggled while LSU’s defense still has to prove that it can stop a top 25 team.
A 1 unit play on the over 48.5 for me. Good Luck Everyone!

[whatdafuxup]

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