1. #1
    willieteal
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    Angle on LSU-Mississippi State

    It looks like LSU opened -4 and is now down to - 3/12

    I don't think there is a play here, but interested to know others' opinion: In 2009, MSU all but beat LSU in Mullen's debut season in Starkville but for a freak punt return and a goalline stand. LY LSU easily outclassed MSU in Baton Rouge.

    #2 LSU continues to survive with an extremely athletic defense and almost no offense to speak of. Although running game is improved from 2010 with simplified I attack and better blocking from fullback James Stampley, this is all LSU can do and they're counting on war of attrition for daylight and points. Even in impressive win against Oregon LSU had absolutely no passing attack and 5th year senior Jarret Lee seems to have a glass jaw. You'll hear that Lee is guiding LSU with mistake free football, but risk is really being managed through extremely conservative playcalling inviting competent SEC defenses to stack the box, putting Lee in passing situations. No doubt Mullen has had this game circled as a home game at night that MSU can win to showcase program, and you could see Bulldogs pulling upset.

    However, Thursday night game and short week is a big advantage for LSU. MSU comes off of slugfest with Auburn and though their backs are against the wall, LSU coasted to easy 49-3 win and has superior depth at almost every position on the field. Additionally, MSU may be losing two oiffensive linemen for the game. MUllen may be the better playcaller, but LSU has better horses.

    Factors above suggest that MSU upset and methodical, second half LSU 7-14 pt win are almost equally likely and therefore cancel each other out. Probably should throw your cards back on this one.
    Last edited by willieteal; 09-12-11 at 01:24 AM.

  2. #2
    FrattyCapper22
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    Good observation of the game. This will be very tough to call. Our offense continues to put up huge numbers but were matched up with LSU's tough D this week. On the other end of things, LSU, like you said, is going to have a very, very tough time moving the ball through the air on our secondary. I see this being a close, low scoring affair.

  3. #3
    ck021
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    I think LSU honestly I think they are pretty solid this season miss St is Definetly good but I think lsu will prove to be really good this season

  4. #4
    teaserpleaser
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    Lsu or nothing for me not buying mst hype relf is still relf those dink and dunk passes and bumphis arent going to do the trick vs lsu beating up on a weak ass memphis team and I watched that auburn game trust me lsu can run on them...This is the best Lsu team in a while the team speed is crazy going to be fun watching relf get knocked silly for 3 yard gains. cowbells, weeday home nightgame, I remember 2009 Msu is getting better they are but I see Lsu making it 12 in a row vs msu.

  5. #5
    SATERSTYLE
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    Waiting to see if it can drop to -3 otherwise no play for me

  6. #6
    teaserpleaser
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    Is it really true that msu under Dan Mullen is 0-9 vs everybody in sec west other than bottom feeder ole miss

  7. #7
    xyzky
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    Thursday Night Home Dog...Gonna have to stay away...

  8. #8
    GoBlue23
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    Quote Originally Posted by xyzky View Post
    Thursday Night Home Dog...Gonna have to stay away...
    This right here. Take the home dog on Thursday night or stay the FUKK away!

  9. #9
    zuluhead1``1
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    I want LSU to win just to hear Miles be interviewed at the end. It is so funny. "Ready is a big word"


    Did anyone notice in the Oregon game where he ran towards the wrong sideline? One of the players had to grab him.

  10. #10
    willieteal
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    Yeah there should be some kind of props on the guy


    a) will he eat grass +100
    b) will he fake punt inside his own 20 +500
    c) will he sing Oklahoma during sideline interview +5000


    If the game goes to 2 1/2, I may have to go with ole Crazy

  11. #11
    rmikeyd
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    Bulldogs coming off a shoot-out heartbreaker on the plains.
    Tigers coming off a tune-up game with some orphanage...after teeing off on Oregon...and the "Mad Hatter" on the sidelines?
    I'll see if the number goes down, but I'm all over LSU here.

  12. #12
    zuluhead1``1
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    I'm with Mikey. Love LSU.


    I would love if they did a Hard Knocks with Miles. "Coach, what play are we running here?"

    "Well, 'play' is a hard word to define. Our guys have been working hard. Ya know, Baton Rouge is a great city. The season ain't over yet. Thanks Erin."

  13. #13
    ZBOIZ
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    LSU defense is too damn tough and physical. People this may be the best D in the country. Them and Bama is NECK and NECK!!

  14. #14
    Romanov
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    I have LSU winning by 1 so the play would be MSU +3 but a 2 point overlay just isn't enough to make this a play

  15. #15
    zuluhead1``1
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    Quote Originally Posted by ZBOIZ View Post
    LSU defense is too damn tough and physical. People this may be the best D in the country. Them and Bama is NECK and NECK!!
    You think Miles calls Saban every spring for recruiting advice?


    Edit: iPhone auto-correct

  16. #16
    dume walker
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    Interesting take from ESPN Insider on the ESPN website. They measure performance in terms of a new factor they are calling PPVD -- points per value drive. Simply put, this is a matter of how many times a team can score by sustaining a long drive from their own 30 yard line or farther. MSU ranked about #10 in this stat. LSU ranked about #65. Point being that MSU's offense is able to put together long drives. LSU's offense has not been able to do so, including in the Oregon win. They point out that it was LSU's D and special teams that kept giving the Tigers great field position that allowed them to rack up scores on shorter drives.

    My feeling is that may be so, but that is part of LSU's game: a defense that gives their offense prime opportunities to score.

    Another interesting point is the coach for Northwestern State said you don't realize how fast and physical LSU is until you play them. They sure seemed to prove that against Oregon, a team that builds its reputation on speed and fast play.

    The main things I'm looking at is that LSU's game plan was to get way ahead this past weekend so they could rest their starters early for the MSU game. MSU was in a dogfight from start to finish. Chizik was amazed at the pounding Relf took. And Mullen tried to put the game on Ballard's back those last few drives, meaning they rode him hard. Add on to that that 2 of their starting O line went down and how do you think they're going to fare against a well-rested, super-quick, physical LSU D.

    And, yes, MSU is 2-9 SU against the SEC West. Their 2 victories both coming against rival Ole Miss.

    And I'm saying this as someone who was high on MSU and Mullen from the start of the season. Won on them against Memphis. Lost on them against Auburn, which I felt strongly they would cover.

    Last point... For anyone like me who thought that if Relf had pushed it across on that last play they could have gone into OT and gotten the cover, that wasn't going to happen. Mullen said if Relf had scored he was going for 2.

  17. #17
    sweethook
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    lsu def. is to fast , lsu wins 27-17 or 27-20

  18. #18
    wildcorndog
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    No offense to speak of? What planet are u from? LSU has averaged over 40 points a game. I wouldn't bet on any more football games if I were you.

  19. #19
    dume walker
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    I'm really getting tired of posting stuff for people who can't read, or who can't understand what they do read. I didn't say LSU had no offense. I said the ESPN stat revealed they do not score on long drives. The point being that if MSU could consistently pin them deep in their own territory they had a chance of winning. I also took the position that LSU's D -- and the short field they gave their O -- was an integral part of their game despite that stat.

    Stick to simplistic one line comments in which you primarily criticize other people. That seems to be the extent of your expertise.
    Last edited by dume walker; 09-13-11 at 10:36 AM.

  20. #20
    lolblackpeople
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    Dume, I'm assuming you like LSU here? What's your final score prediction?

  21. #21
    dume walker
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    Quote Originally Posted by lolblackpeople View Post
    Dume, I'm assuming you like LSU here? What's your final score prediction?
    Don't really have a score in mind. Still researching the game. Another interesting fact from the Gold Sheet this morning... They point out that Auburn gashed the MSU front line for 235 yards on 36 carries, an average of 6.5 ypc. and that LSU's Jarett Lee works the play action well with a good and deep RB corp. I just remember how MSU could not seem to stop Dyer who was slashing them left and right.

    Yes, MSU is playing at home in front of a fired up crowd, but the thing that weighs most heavily for me is how beat up they have to be after that Auburn game; how they rely so much on Relf and Ballard running but now 2 of their starting O linemen are out; and how well rested, fast and powerful LSU's D is.

    Still haven't put down a wager but you can see where I'm strongly leaning.

  22. #22
    Matt1144
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    I like LSU. Bought half a point and took them at -3

    I also like Boise St. -17 just FYI if anyone cares.

    Both team cashed big for me the first week of the season and I see this week being no different

  23. #23
    PokerAndSports
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    nahh

    look for the over

  24. #24
    teaserpleaser
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    Quote Originally Posted by GoBlue23 View Post
    This right here. Take the home dog on Thursday night or stay the FUKK away!

  25. #25
    teaserpleaser
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    Quote Originally Posted by ZBOIZ View Post
    LSU defense is too damn tough and physical. People this may be the best D in the country. Them and Bama is NECK and NECK!!

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