Week one ~LOCKS~ (& cream cheese) by SBR John

[pags11]

I'd have to say the edge goes to Texas...should be a great frickin' game...UNT should be a no-play out of conference (regardless of how many points they're getting) until further notice...

[bigboydan]

yes they did look strong in that game John. the problem is they played north texas, so it's hard to tell how they will play next weekend against osu

[SBR_John]

That texas defense looked pretty good in their warm up game. North Texas rushed 28 times for 6 yards...ouch! The running game was not that good though. OSU could be a tough match-up. Luckily for Texas its in Austin town.

[pags11]

they may be licking their wounds then sjelveh...unfortunately the UNT teams of late don't play a whole lot of D...

[sjelveh]

I have a friend of a friend who works at green valley ranch’s sport books and told me last night while I watched the sdsu debacle that all the heavy hitter 5-10k betters that have high level services are taking the points.

[pags11]

remember too that UNT's Darryl Dickey rarely leaves his starters in past the second quarter in these types of games because he doesn't want them to get banged up...

[SBR_John]

Justin has a good point on playiing 40+ dogs. Cant argue with a historic 55%.

Well, we will see. Texas could get caught playing practice.

[dcheng]

Go Horns!!!!!!!!

[pags11]

justin, be my guest betting against mac brown early...history shows he covers the spread at a good clip...

[bigboydan]

Hey Justin,

Where can you parlay the side and the total for this game?

DH, not many books offer this type of betting, and the ones that do the players rarely ever tell which ones do.

[darkghost]

Hey Justin,

Where can you parlay the side and the total for this game?

BTW, I'm on Texas -41. I agree w/ SBRJohn N Texas will not score a TD in this game without a fluke play. Final score: 52-3

[Justin7]

Oh, and don't forget the new timing rules. Fewer possessions = smaller blowouts.

[Justin7]

You give me 40 points, and I'll take any dog in Div-I. I'm all over North Texas. I REALLY like North Texas, parlayed to Under 52 (or any total for this game).

Watch out for huge favorites. 40+ point dogs have covered about 55% of the time historically. You can improve your hit if you identify the coaches that don't let up when destroying an opponent, and exclude them.

[pags11]

curse, I don't know about the 60's or 70's, but I could see the mid to high 50's...don't think UNT's going to get over 14 points...

get' em John...

[SBR_John]

The Green Machine has had some good defenses through the years like when Mean Joe Green played but trying to move the ball has been a real chore. Now imagine this lousy offense stepping onto Memorial field against the National Champs. Texas has the real deal on defense... talent, expierence and discipline. This WILL be one of the top 5 defenses. I'm ready to rumble...blow the whistle! Texas -40, -41 or whatever.

[Curse Fire]

The LOnghorns will score in the 60s maybe the 70s
agains t the North Texas. They dont have to show
any thing in this game but sweep left fullback in the
middle and easy posts or down and outs passing
patterns.

[bigboydan]

sounds like your banking on a "fine tuning type game" here like Spurier always did before a big game he had on the schedule next uh John.

[pags11]

I can't believe an industry expert would use the word "lock", although I know he said it tongue in cheek...

John's got a couple of things going for him in this game:

1. Mac Brown's history of running it up vs. inferior opponents, especially early in the season...

2. UNT Head coach's lack of interest in playing these games in general...it could get very ugly in the second half as he usually doesn't play his starters very late into these types of games...

best of luck to you John...appreciate all that you do around here...

[SBR_John]

Put it this way, North Texas will not see the Texas side of the field until the 3rd string gets in. Mean Machine backers are hoping that Texas will not show much before the showdown with #1 ranked Ohio St a week later. The problem is; they're right, Look for texas to pound the ball with the best offensive line and rushing attack in the country versus one of the worse defenses. Texas also wants to get their redshirt frosh QB some throws so look for the Texas offensive line & QB to remain in the game long after its over. Net result; North Texas will be lucky to pick up a few first downs much less score in this one and Texas will pretty much name their score. Texas 59 - 3.