1. #1
    Wunderbar
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    Crowdsourcing with Lou and the Brew Crew

    So - a bunch of fairly average 30-something guys with nothing better to do have a football pool each year. The pool has grown from 10 to 20. We are generally Southern, major college (ACC/SEC) graduates with wives, kids, boring middle management jobs (lawyers, accountants, bankers and such), and we were big into football when younger and now watch in between kids' soccer and ballet.

    I imagine this is a story repeated thousands of times across the country. We have gradually dispersed ourselves from Atlanta throughout the US (and internationally).

    My thought this year, is to track the "crowd" wisdom without regard to handicapping skill or game particulars. Each week we get 12 games to pick, with early lines - the games are those of some relevance, or on national TV. I am going to take the top 2 overall selections based simply on number of times picked and bet 1 unit each. The pool requires a "lock" selection which is worth double - I will take the top lock selection and bet 1.5 units. I plan to track how we do in this thread and in my betting spreadsheet.

    In case of tie, I will use the "other" indicator as the tiebreaker - so if there are 3 "top picks", whichever has the lowest locks would be eliminated. If a lock selection and a top selection are the same, I will go to the next top selection so that I always have 3 games in play.

    We are average, drunk, poor betting idiots. Let's see if we are collectively better. If I were to offer unsolicited advice, based on a historical win rate hovering at 50%, fade us. Or laugh at us. But maybe it will be interesting to follow.

    Texas A&M -15 1 unit (15 picks out of 20)
    TCU -3.5 1 unit (15 picks out of 20)
    Ole Miss +3 1.5 units (4 locks out of 20)

  2. #2
    yisman
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    I like the idea.

  3. #3
    Wunderbar
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    Week 1 Results

    Quote Originally Posted by Wunderbar View Post
    Texas A&M -15 1 unit (15 picks out of 20)
    TCU -3.5 1 unit (15 picks out of 20)
    Ole Miss +3 1.5 units (4 locks out of 20)
    Texas A&M 46-14 = +1
    TCU 48-50 = -1.1
    Ole Miss 13-14 = +1.5

    YTD = 2-1; +1.4 units

  4. #4
    flocko76
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    could you post which games 12 you are picking from as well? this seems like a good idea.

  5. #5
    Wunderbar
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    Week 2

    As requested, here are all 12 games

    (Editing to clarify the table, since is is not easy to read; First team is favorite, first # is total people who picked favorite, second # is spread at time of pick, second team is underdog, and last number is # total people who picked underdog)


    Picked Spread Underdog Amt Picked
    Oklahoma St 12 13.5 Arizona 8
    Arizona St 9 7.5 Missouri 11
    Miss St. 9 7.5 Auburn 11
    Iowa 15 6.5 Iowa St. 5
    TCU 18 1.5 Air Force 2
    Oregon 14 26.5 Nevada 6
    Alabama 15 10.5 Penn St. 5
    VA Tech 11 18.5 E. Carolina 9
    South Carolina 13 2.5 UGA 7
    Texas 13 7.5 BYU 7
    USC 8 9.5 Utah 12
    Notre Dame 3 3.5 Michigan 17

    So, the three bets, with current lines, are:

    TCU -1 at Air Force; 1.5 Units (Also had the highest number of locks)
    Michigan +3 vs. Notre Dame; 1 Unit
    Alabama -10 at Penn State; 1 Unit (Highest number of locks of 15 vote teams)
    Last edited by Wunderbar; 09-09-11 at 09:56 AM. Reason: Clarification of table

  6. #6
    Wunderbar
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    Results after Week 2

    Quote Originally Posted by Wunderbar View Post

    So, the three bets, with current lines, are:

    TCU -1 at Air Force; 1.5 Units (Also had the highest number of locks)
    Michigan +3 vs. Notre Dame; 1 Unit
    Alabama -10 at Penn State; 1 Unit (Highest number of locks of 15 vote teams)
    TCU 35-19 +1.5
    Michigan 35-31 +1
    Alabama 27-11 +1

    YTD: 5-1, +4.9 units

  7. #7
    miketp223
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    5-1! Not so average! Keep it going

  8. #8
    Wunderbar
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    Week 3

    Part of the hassle of dealing with drunk average fools is that we don't do many things timely. So, LSU would have been a pick (16 of 20), but I didn't get the sheet until Friday morning, which means I will move to the next option. Too bad.

    Anyway, 5-1 YTD, let's see what happens this week. Lots of road public square favorites. Kind of like LSU.


    LSU 16 3.5 Miss St 4
    Maryland 11 1.5 W. Virginia 9
    Auburn 10 3.5 Clemson 10
    UNC 7 10.5 UVA 13
    Notre Dame 10 4.5 Michigan St. 10
    Texas 13 3.5 UCLA 7
    Florida 10 9.5 Tennessee 10
    Wisconsin 16 16.5 N. Illinois 4
    Miami, Fla 9 3.5 Ohio St. 11
    Oklahoma 9 3.5 Florida St. 11
    BYU 10 4.5 Utah 10
    Stanford 18 9.5 Arizona 2


    Plays, with current lines:
    Wisconsin -16.5 vs. N. Illinois 1.5 units (6 locks out of 20)
    Stanford -9 at Arizona 1 unit (18 picks out of 20)
    Texas -3.5 at UCLA 1 unit (13 picks out of 20)

  9. #9
    Wunderbar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Wunderbar View Post
    Wisconsin -16.5 vs. N. Illinois 1.5 units (6 locks out of 20)
    Stanford -9 at Arizona 1 unit (18 picks out of 20)
    Texas -3.5 at UCLA 1 unit (13 picks out of 20)
    Wisconsin 49-7; +1.5 units
    Stanford 37-10; +1 unit
    Texas 49-20; +1 unit

    YTD: 8-1; +8.4 units

  10. #10
    Wunderbar
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    Week 4 plays

    Cincinnati 9 7.5 NC State 11
    BYU 11 2.5 C. Florida 9
    UGA 17 9.5 Ole Miss 3
    Alabama 10 11.5 Arkansas 10
    LSU 16 6.5 W. Virginia 4
    Notre Dame 14 6.5 Pitt 6
    Florida St 13 2.5 Clemson 7
    S. Carolina 7 16.5 Vandy 13
    Greorgia Tech 14 6.5 UNC 6
    Texas A&M 8 4.5 Oklahoma St. 12
    Oklahoma 6 22.5 Missouri 14
    Arizona St. 11 2.5 USC 9

    FSU (5 locks out of 20) 2 units +2.5
    UGA -9.5 1 unit
    LSU -6 1 unit

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