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HOOKEM'S 2011 College Football picks
I will be posting my picks for 2011 CFB here. Mostly just for fun and to keep track of my picks and to bounce around ideas.. I will pick 1-2 games a week and provide detail write-up of my view (take it for what its worth). Marjority of my picks will be 5% of bankroll (5 units). You will see some go to 10% if im confident but won't exceed that. 1% of bankroll equals 1 Unit. BOL to everyone this year.
TEXAS -24 (5 units)
Texas is my team, I follow them religiously. However I don't let my emotions get in the way ( I bet against them to).
With that said let's get into it.
Texas is coming off of a terrible 5-7 season after being in the NC a year before. Texas fans felt like they woke up in Vegas naked on the strip (with a weird burning down under from a one night stand with a 300lb hooker) with traces of coke on their nose and a splitting hangover from the ungodly amount of Grey Goose they drank the night before, and a tattoo across their forehead that reads " I was Butt-F****D". Mack Brown made a complete overhaul with new OC Bryan Harsin (Boise St. OC) and Manny Diaz (Miss. St. DC).
Harsin running scheme was big part of Boise St. success.
2006 - Ian Johnson 6.2 ypc
2007 - Ian Johnson 5 ypc Jeremy Avery 6.5 ypc
2008 - Johnson 5.1 ypc Avery 5.5 ypc
2009 - Avery 5.5 ypc Martin 5.9 ypc Harper 6.5 ypc
2010 - Martin 6.3 ypc
This just shows that these RB's were just bodies in Harsin's RB system. I think Ian Johnson is scrubbing toilets for the Lions now but he looked like a god at Boise St. Texas in the past has soley relied on a workhorse to come through every so often - Rick Williams, Cedric Benson, Jamal Charles. They have never had a great running system under Greg Davis. Davis alway relied on the pure talents of his studs (Vince Young and the RB's I mentioned). I have been watching the practices this year and to see actual talent mixed with Harsin's scheme looks great. Malcom Brown was one of the top RB coming out of last year's recruits, and he looks GOOD. Fozzy Whitaker looks quick and Joe Bergeron is a force to bring down (look for him in short yardage and goal line).
Look for a lot of the pressure to be lifted off of Garret Gilbert's shoulders as he has a solid running game to lean on.
Manny Diaz was given a dream team defense. I won't go into detail but there isn't a weak point on the defense. LB squad is among the top in the nation. Can lay the wood and great at dropping in coverage.
David Bailiff, with Rice, runs the spread with flexed TE. Good mobile QB in Taylor McHargue and good all-purpose back in Jeremy Eddington.
The biggest trouble for Rice will be on the OL. They are squatty and mobile but struggle in pass protection situations. Expect alot of shovels, 3 step drops and QB draws to make up for this weakness. Texas LB's will have a field day in coverage and the DE's (Jeffcoat and Okafor) will demolish Rice's O-line.
Rice's defense is borderline pathetic. Teams averaged 8.7 ypa and the front four are terrible at pass rush. Team's average 38.5 ppg against Rice's defense last year.
Normally Mack will take his foot off the gas in blow out wins. Not this year. Texas fans were pulling out the pitch forks last year and wanted blood. Look for Mack to lay it on Rice showcasing the new offense to the hungry Texas fans. Last year the score was 34-17. I expect the same score for Rice but an all out show From Texas' offense, especially the running game. 55-17 TEXAS.
you follow them religiously without emotions ! if that were true , you would of found a different game to write up - there are too many games to chose from when you are only picking one !!!!!!
like this pick, on it as well
Your right, there are a lot for good games this week. I like to stick to games I know the most about (Big 12, SEC, other Texas teams). I wish my brain was big enough to follow every conference and every game!Originally Posted by LINE-crush-ER
At -24 I think the books think this is the same Texas team as last year.
Also playing the over
TEXAS/RICE Over 55.5 (2 units)
Oklahoma -25 (4 units)
Write-up coming...
GL I like the angle
Oklahoma -25 (4 units)
Landry Jones looks like Gollum from Lord of the Rings had a retardo baby with the banjo player from Deliverance.
Offense
Oklahoma is returning with a lot of experience this year. Landry and Broyles will both be heisman candidates. Landry is throwing behind an experienced O-line led by Ban Habern. They are also bringing back receiver Kenny Stills who had 61 catches for 786 yards last season. Not too shabby. OU has plenty of talent at RB to make up for losing Murray.
Defense
If OU can zone blitz effectively and get pressure on Kinne then OU will cover easily. This will be where the bet is won/lost. If they allow Kinne time to throw then Tulsa will put up some points. Tulsa will be at a disadvantage without their receiver Demaris Johnson, but will still have an effective offense this year.
Tulsa has a new coach in Bill Blankenship. He has been with the team since '07 and this is his first collegiate HC job. I love betting against first year coaches, especially when they are taking on a program with the experience OU has. OU will put up 40+ points, it is just a question on what they can hold Tulsa to. With OU's experience and solid defense I predict 45-14 OU.
Does anyone else see the resemblance???
Last edited by HOOKEMcnh; 09-03-11 at 12:54 PM.
Feeling good about UT tonight after talking to my insider with the team.
Plays for today...
TEXAS -24 (5 UNITS)
TEXAS OVER 55.5 (2 UNITS)
OU -25 (4 UNITS)
2-1 +6.8 UNITS
Came real close to my OU prediction. Texas came out slow and had a terrible 1st qtr to blow the over bet, but Texas still covered.
Unv. of Houston -22.5 (8 UNITS)
Write up coming...
Hopefully I will find the time to do the UH write up soon... Here are the plays I'm on this weekend so far.
U. of Houston -22.5 8 UNITS
SDSU -9.5 6 UNITS
South Carolina -3 3 UNITS
BOL this weekend
2011 Record 2-1 +6.8 UNITS
HOUSTON -22.5 (8 UNITS)
North Texas is TUURRRRIIBBBLLLEEE...
Houston returns Case Keenum coming back from acl injury last year. He looked good against UCLA throwing 310 yards and 2 TD's. NT was slamming their headtrying to cover FIU's small speedy receiver, Hilton, who went for 132 yards. If they thought that was bad, UH has 4 receivers like that. Tyron Carrier leads the receiving corps, he went 138 yards and TD against UCLA. Combine these receivers with a QB like Keenum, and you have a recipe for an ass whooping on the Mean Green. The only way NT can stop Keenum is if they succeed in pressuring him with their front four... but the way UH RB's looked last week I am not worried if NT does succeed in getting at Keenum. Balls, Hayes, and Sims combined for 131 yds and a TD on 22 carries.
North Texas offense didn't score a single point last week. Their defense recovered 2 fumbles in the endzone along with a safety. WHOOPTY ******* DOOOO.
Houston had a green defense last year and will benefit just from having a year of seasoning. In their 3-4 scheme they bring back 2 Def. Lineman and all 4 linebackers. However they do have an all new secondary. This would worry me a little in most cases... but NT is TURRRRIIBBLLLEEE. Houston's defense allowed 554 yards last week against UCLA, but guess what... NT is no where near the talent of UCLA. NT will put up some points on offense unlike last week, but not much more.
Houston's offense crushes North Texas for 500+ total yards and Keenum won't even play the 4th quarter. Houston rolls 55-13
Last edited by HOOKEMcnh; 09-07-11 at 11:39 PM.
SDSU -9.5 (6 UNITS)
Big reason on why I like SDSU -9.5 over Army...
SDSU is experienced defending the option attack. This is their 3rd consecutive game facing teams that run the option. They faced Navy in the Poinsettia Bowl and opened up the season with Cal Poly. The former coach of Cal Poly who structured their option attack is, wait for it...
Rich Ellerson, the current Army head coach.
SDSU defense will suffocate the option run by Army and their superior athletes will propel SDSU to an easy victory 35-17 SDSU.
Adding a play...
Northern Ill. -6.5 (5 UNITS)
I got it at -6.5, it has fallen to -4.5 now. KU blows donkey balls
Plays for tomorrow
Houston -22.5 (8 UNITS)
SDSU -9.5 (6 UNITS)
NIU -6.5 (5 UNITS)
S. Car. -3 (3 UNITS)
LET'S GET IT
2011 Record...
3-3-1 +2.7 UNITS
Plays I am on this week so far...
Houston -7.5 (5 UNITS)
Texas -3 (5 UNITS)
I am eyeing OU -3 right now, need to do more research on Fla St. Not too familiar with them. Anyone have info on Fla. St.?
Last edited by HOOKEMcnh; 09-13-11 at 04:03 PM.
Win or lose I appreciate and respect guys that give reason behind their plays. Stat or opinion based makes little difference personally, it still shows frame of mind and offeres something to consider that might othersise go unnoticed.
Like what I see in this thread and like both those plays you are on this week.
Looking back on last week I realized I need to stick with what I am most comfortable with - Texas teams, Big 12, and SEC.
Going forward my 5 + UNIT plays will be on those games, with smaller units on games like SDSU.
Mistakes last week
- I overestimated KU's ball sucking ability and underestimated their offense
- I looked too much into SDSU defending the option. Still think it was a good play but at smaller units. Wasn't very knowledgeable on either team.
Texas write up coming soon...
Hey HOOKEMcnh
I got a lot riding on Texas -3 this week. Looking forward to your write up. I live in Southern California and I can tell you that UCLA is playing some horrible football right now. However, they do seem to play well versus big time programs (At Knoxville and Austin).
Here we go.
TEXAS -3 (5 UNITS)
I don't know what's worse - UCLA beating Texas their last 3 meetings, or UCLA not even caring they won.
I saw value with the Rice game and won... stayed away from BYU game b/c I did not like the way Texas main offense (mostly Gilbert) looked in first half in Rice game. I told myself I would not bet Texas unless they made a switch at QB... that did not take long. I love this line at -3, I think it should be between 7 and 10.
Offense
Let's get one thing straight, I like Garrett Gilbert. I think he is a hard worker, smart, and has a great arm... but he has mind F**** himself. He has let the pressure get to him and has grown desperate in games. He is leaving it up to lady luck on his throws. Both of his interceptions he stared at the receiver the whole time and never checked through is progressions, then hurling the ball for grabs like a game of jack pot. He needs to be benched - it will do him good.
I love the fact that we are throwing more wait on David Ash's shoulders. I was talking to a receiver on the team during camp and he said Ash is going to be "the guy", and I believe him. I think he will be a Stafford/Bradford/Luck type QB his Junior and Senior year. I love the fact that Case Mccoy is starting as well. I think b/c of this dual QB attack and the way college football analysts are saying there is confusion at the QB position is the reason the line is so low at 3. ESPN did a highlight on Texas QB change where Chris Fowler said Texas would be playing two QBs equally and both QBs would be running the same plays...WRONG. David Ash has a special package suited to him. A lot of roll outs, wildcat formations, and design plays for him to run. Another analyst referred to him as Tebow-type QB. If tebow magically grew an arm and learned how to throw the football then you could compare him to Ash. Ash is 6-3, 220 lbs., and runs a 4-5, he's a stud. Now you ask, " if Ash is so good, why are you excited about McCoy playing as well?" Well grasshopper, McCoy is just like his brother. He has fantastic timing with his receivers and can run if needed. He will be more of a pocket passer then Ash. You team these two up and you have a dangerous combination.
I am more excited about Malcom Brown being named the starter at RB and getting the workload. He has 153 yards on 30 carries this year and will be getting 20+ carries this week. Last two weeks Texas has performed well offensively in the 2nd half and extremely slow in the 1st. This is b/c Brown and Ash/McCoy weren't playing until the second half. Look for more consistent offense from Texas.
Defense
Texas' defense has got some swagger to it. They are playing lights out. They are going to have to keep this up against a very talented UCLA team. UCLA has two NFL type RBs in Franklin and Coleman. Coleman looked good and is the main reason they beat San Jose last week. But he shouldn't brag about what he did against SJSU b/c that is like Adrian Peterson bragging about demolishing a middle school team. They also have two big receiving targets in WR Rosario (6-5) and TE Fauria (6-8). Texas' DL and LB crew can limit the production of UCLA's RB but I am worried about their tall receivers taking on our young corners. Texas DL getting pressure on UCLA's QB and solid help from the safeties will limit the production of UCLA receivers. If UCLA comes out unmotivated like they were in the 1st half against Houston and the whole game against SJSU then look for an ass whooping handed to them. *Note - UCLA has still not announced a starting QB and Prince said in an interview he is not 100%.
Texas lost last year because UCLA defensive front put ridiculous pressure on Gilbert making him flip sh*t like an Islamic terrorist being Baptized. Look for Harsin to come up with creative offensive schemes in the Ash Package to counter this and for Texas to play 4 quarters of consistent offense. Texas defense will contain an unmotivated but talented UCLA team to win 31-20.
I would like to apologize to all OU fans for the picture I posted referencing their QB, Landry Jones, to a retardo baby conceived by Gollum and the Deliverance retard. Texas now has the uglier starting QB. BABBBYYY RUUTHHH
Lets do it. I'm in. I might have to go to the rose bowl with a laser pointer to distract Brehaut.
Adding OU to the card
Houston -7.5 (5 UNITS)
Texas -3 (5 UNITS)
Oklahoma -3 (5 UNITS)
.
FSU kids coming to get you....I like Oklahoma too!!!!!!!
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Oklahoma States' offense is high powered this year. Should easily beat Tulsa by 2 tds
Houston -7.5 (5 UNITS)
Texas -3 (5 UNITS)
Oklahoma -3 (5 UNITS)
Oklahoma State -13.5 (5 UNITS)
Yeaa Boy!!! GOod start to Texas vs UCLA!!!
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