Currently a student in college but NCAAF and NFL capping takes up the majority of my free time; its my passion and hobby and I have been an avid sports fan my entire life. This is my second year betting on football but last year I had good success (especially NFL) but I'm learning to bet appropriately attempting to maximize possible profit. I like to analyze line movement and incorporate a feel aspect for the game because stats on paper do not always tell the story and most of all I treat this like my job and try to bet as professionally as possible! Follow my picks and we can see what I can do and good luck to all this football season!
- Using sportsbook for lines
- Always appreciate input from others or differing opinions up for debate
- I will be betting small as I did last year but hope to grow financially and make bigger wagers
First Game Analysis (More to Come)
North Texas @ Florida International -14 O/U 54
Line Movement
- Line opened at 11/12 depending on book and public has been on FIU raising it up to 14 1/2. I saw slight RLM on some sites lowering it down to 13 1/2 probably tempting more money on FIU in my opinion but my line now lays at 14. The O/U line has raised a little bit and has been favored heavily on the public at percentages around 80% probably because of the lousy defense of North Texas a year ago.
Preview
-Dan McCarney takes over the head coaching job at North Texas attempting to rejuvenate the Mean Green squad that was 3-9 a year ago. He had success at previous program at Iowa State and lots of coaching experience in the college football world. The North Texas offense should come out pounding the football putting the ball in the hands of senior RB Lance Dunbar who averaged over 5 yards a carry a year ago was preseason co-pick for Sun Belt player of the year; furthermore with inexperienced sophomore QB Derek Thompson under center, coach McCarney should look to limit passing attempts if it remains competitive in the game. 7 returners come back the the defensive unit that struggled a year ago but should show improvement. The secondary looks like the strongest part of the unit that look to slow down last years Sun Belt player of the year T.Y. Hilton. Florida International coming off the schools first bowl win a year ago has high hopes for this under their coach who received a contract extension till 2016. The Panthers should also look to have an offensive attack focused primarily on the ground with all top four rushers returning from a year ago and attacking presumably the weakest part of the North Texas defensive unit. QB Wesley Carroll had solid numbers a year ago and experience. The offensive line returns only two starters.
Analysis/Pick
- Florida International is facing a position that is unknown to the program picked to win the conference in preseason polls. The pressure is clearly on the Panthers opening up the season with a conference game. FIU blew out North Texas a year ago but the attitude has changed in the Mean Green locker room with the hiring of Coach McCarney and I expect them to come out firing and pressuring the FIU offense with a new aggressive defensive scheme. If North Texas's secondary plays strong I can see this becoming a hard-nosed physical game with both team heavily running the ball keeping the clock moving. I like North Texas with the 14 points and under of 54 (which public has hammered).
Line Movement
- Public has been on Orange from start initially raising line to 7 or so but within the last day there has been some RLM with it going down to 6. Under is heavily liked by public.
Analysis
- The Syracuse Orange are coming off a bowl victory a season ago and are creating excitement within the program. Cuse had the nation's 6th best defense a year ago but it has lost multiple key starters that will make it difficult to repeat previous season's performance. Although their are losses the defensive unit should be very quick that should help contain the speedy RB Josh Harris. Senior QB Ryan Nassib returns to QB who had 19 TD's to his 8 INT's last fall. The orange did lose a star in Delone Carter but Antwon Bailey will lead at the RB position that is versatile and can catch out of the backfield. Bailey will be behind an offensive line full of experience. Wake Forest was terrible a year ago but their offensive line looks to be solid this year and Josh Harris began to show his potential last season. Tanner Price will be at QB who was not impressive a year ago and will have to make throws to open up the run game.
Pick
- Even though the RLM has caught my eye the past day I still am going to side with the Orange here (Hey, the Public doesn't always lose!). I like senior QB Nassib to control the game and use the home field advantage that they will have where they are expecting a strong crowd. I believe Cuse has a more dynamic offense being able to run and throw and will expose the Wake Forest defense. I think the speed will be able to counter the attack of the Demon Deacs rushing attack.
Kentucky -16.5 5 Units
- I think the public has highly overestimated this WKU team which finished last in the Sun Belt conference a year ago. WKU does have RB Bobby Rainey but I don't see how the team will be able to compete for 4 quarters against an SEC team. Kentucky's coach is on the hot seat and I'm sure he will have his players prepared for this game and remind them of the whiplashing Rainey gave them on the ground a year ago. SEC team vs last place in Sun Belt I'll take the points and look for Kentucky to win large.
UNLV over 10.5 Points (-110) 4.75 Units
- Just something that caught my eye. I think UNLV will be able to put up 11 points. Their defense is horrendous but their offense should be able to muster up enough points to cover up this number. UNLV is 0-0 right now and motivation will be there in tonights game which is on ESPN! I think the nationally televised game plays a factor and keeps the rebels fighting to the end covering the point total.
Good luck this season! A few concerns I had about backing North Texas when looking at this game...
NT is starting 2 Freshman at both guard spots. Add that to the fact that the entire OL is playing in a different spot on the line then they were last year, and they might have some problems opening things up for Dunbar. Without an experienced QB, I expect FIU to stack 8 guys in the box and pretty much take away a big chunk of the running game (Dunbar 30 yds last year). Weak WRs and a pretty shaky pass rush. FIU has 15 returning starters on a team that beat them 34-10 last year.
Appreciate your info you make some valid points. I think i'm basing a big part of this pick using the "feel" factor for this conference game. I think the attitude has changed in the N. Texas locker room and I can see a physical battle. However, if the offensive line does not create any holes for Dunbar this could be a problem with Thompson at QB. What do you think about the under on this game I think defenses tend to be better prepared for opposing offenses in week 1 of the season, and with both teams with heavy rushing attacks I liked the under alot.
I actually played FIU and the OVER. I can see FIU winning by 3 TDs, hopefully putting up close to 40pts. They have several guys that can run the ball, and one of the best WRs in the country in Hilton. Special teams is a huge edge for FIU and they may be able to bring a kick or two back to set them up for some short drives. Even more interested in the game now, think we both have some good arguments. I will say being at home in a new stadium might amp up the D which would hurt my case for the over....but who knows
Yea I think that FIU does have firepower I remember watching last years bowl game against Toledo which they won. However, this is unknown territory for the Panthers and the pressure is on them. They smacked around the mean green last season and that should fire up the NT squad in my opinion. I'm expecting offenses not to explode right away in week 1 and NT's defense to improve with 7 starters returning. I see North Texas running the ball burning the clock so i'm hoping for the under but who knows thats why they play the game.
So far I am 2 and 2 on the night but it was extremely lucky with the Syracuse cover over Wake Forest and my initial lean for the North Texas game was completely off. It looks like I'm going to fail to cover my final game where UK is only up 7-3.
What we learned tonight
- FIU can straight up play and is a force that must be reckoned with
- North Texas is awful and can't play defense and is fade material
- Kentucky is awful and should be fade material looks like they might go winless in the SEC with this effort
- Wake Forest is better than expected
yesterday 2-3
Risked 24.74 units
Won 18.45
Down 6.29 units
Quick Im going to do parlay TCU ml + under
-TCU inexperienced QB but returning all RBS and strong offensive line look for a run heavy offense @ Baylor
- TCU seems to always return a good defense even though lost many starters doesnt worry me
- Baylor has terrible defense but TCU's strength shall better Baylor's offense and Griffith
havent been able to post picks just had two the under and over on clemson but i cant count that ohio state akron under was 5 unit play
just took UGA in game +4.5 (0-0) score 5 unit play
alrite those two were screwed but im not giving up just getting started will calculate units tommorow
one final play
over 24 Haw/COl 2nd half 5.55 units
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The KIDS PICKS NCAAF 2011 HERE WE GO!
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