I usually don't make a lot of futures bets as i don't like having cash tied up for months. But there are a few out there I like.
OVER
FSU O9.5 Florida State is my dark-horse National Title team this season, and part of the reason is that their schedule isn't the most challenging. I see 8 sure wins and 4 swing games - Home vs Oklahoma (Oklahoma has been awful on the road, and FSU will be up for this one after getting pasted last year) and road games @ Florida, @ Clemson, and @ Boston College. If FSU is elite they'll come out of these at least 2-2 meaning this bet is good.
Michigan O7 (-130) Michigan is an interesting team. They have a lot of talent, but they've had some defections too. I've heard varying opinions on them, but I think the ceiling is 9 wins for this team and I like that you're hedged with 7 wins. I see 6 wins up front (assuming they can win at Northwestern, which they should be able to). Of the remaining 6, 3 are at home (Nebraska, Ohio State, Notre Dame) and 3 are on the road (Iowa, Michigan State, Illinois). All they need to do is rally the troops and win one of the home games, then find a way to steal one on the road. This was at 7.5 and I was on the fence then but at 7 I feel great.
Stanford O9 (even) In Luck we trust. If Harbaugh were still there I think you'd see this at 10, and though it means a lot I don't see continuity being an issue this season, with a ton of players returning including the leading Heisman candidate. I see 6 wins to start, and let's go conservative and say they split their 2 tough home games (ND and Oregon) and lose to USC on the road so we're now sitting at 7-2. That leaves us home vs Washington (should be a win), @ Arizona (I don't believe in the Wildcats), and @ Oregon State (should be a win but tough place to play). They win all 3 they cover, they win 2 of 3 they push. I can't see a scenario where they lose more than 3 games.
Missouri O7.5 (-120) The Tigers are one of the most under-rated teams going into this season. I'm guessing it's because they lost Gabbert but they're loaded everywhere else, and if new QB James Franklin is any good this should be a good bet. The schedule isn't the easiest - I see 5 sure wins and 1 sure loss with 6 swing games. They'd need to go 3-3 in home games vs Texas and Oklahoma State and road games at Baylor, Kansas State, Arizona State, and Texas A&M. No small task but I believe the Tigers are up for it.
UNDER
Penn State U7.5 (+130) Simply put, I don't think Penn State is very good. I pegged them for 6 wins in my Big Ten betting preview (see conferencechalk.com). No way they're beating Alabama, which means they'd need to go 5-3 in the conference to win this. I can't see them beating Nebraska, Ohio State, or Wisconsin, Iowa has given them fits, and Northwestern could beat them in Evanston. There's too much drama at the QB position and the conference is better than it was a year ago.
UNC U8 (-140) There's obviously turmoil in Chapel Hill, and with that brings uncertainty. Not to mention they play in the ACC, where God knows who will win each game. I'm seeing 4 wins, 1 loss, and 7 swing games (4 of which are on the road) as I don't think hosting Louisville or Virginia will be guaranteed wins. UNC has to go 5-2 in these games for you to get hurt and I think that's a lot to ask
BYU 8.5 (+120) I actually think BYU is going to be very strong this season - they really came on in the 2nd half of 2010, and Jake Heaps looked superb in the bowl win. But this Independent schedule is filled with landmines. Road games @ Texas and TCU are likely losses, and road games at Ole Miss, Oregon State, Hawaii will not be cakewalks. They've also got to host two solid teams in Utah and Central Florida. I think they go 3-4 in these games and finish with 8 wins
LSU U9.5 (-170) Another team with a bit of turmoil but Vegas is still giving little margin for error. Let's assume @Alabama is a loss, meaning we'll allow the Tigers one more slip-up in games vs Oregon, @Mississippi State, and at @West Virginia. Home vs Florida and Arkansas and @ Tennessee are likely wins but not guaranteed. Price is pretty steep here but at 9.5 I like it.
I see fsu as a 10-2 team. While their offense was slow in the spring game and some games last year their defense was exceptional. They will find ways to win games even when its not going their way. If fsu can get their offense rolling and in sync and not rely solely on the running game then they will win the ACC.
I also have BYU under 8.5. Saw them play last year against fsu. While they had a cold start I don't think this team is capable of 9 wins with their tough schedule.
For michigan simply put they need a defense. When their offense is shut down forget about it no way they're winning. If defense is predicted to improve significantly then over 7 is a good bet
I considered UNC Under, but it's not a good pick. They return 6 on Defense, 6 Offense. Look at the schedule. I have a hard time seeing 4 losses. @Clemson, @VT are about the only games where they will be defined dogs. The rest they are favored/toss-up. Should be 8-4 but the -140 on Under makes it a poor play cause 9-3 is real possible in weak ACC.
Everyone is making a big deal out of Mizzou losing Gabbert, but look at his stats last year. They were not that impressive and should not be hard for the new QB to emulate. People get caught up in the fact that Gabbert was the #10 pick in April's draft and lose track of the fact that he was very ordinary last year at Mizzou and was drafted that high strictly on measurables and work outs and not on his play in games.
301/475 (63.4%)
16 TD
9 Int
Gary Pinkel has a very good track record with Quarterbacks at Mizzou with Brad Smith, Chase Daniel, and Blaine Gabbert. Mizzou returns 9 of 11 on offense and 6 of 11 on defense. This is a deep and experienced team and I agree, I really like that the o7.5 here.
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