[wal66]

I do this every year for all listed games each week in college football. Sometimes it helps sometimes it doesn’t but I see no reason to not continue offering it to the boards.

I don’t use this information the first couple of weeks of the season because the teams need to establish themselves before true power ranking can take hold.

Listed below are the games and the adjusted line for each. When I personally start using this I have an additional factor that goes into the equation and require at least a 3-point edge to qualify.

North Texas
Florida International -6

Wake Forrest -2
Syracuse

Mississippi State -21
Memphis

UNLV
Wisconsin -22

Bowling Green
Idaho -1

Kentucky -21
Western Kentucky

TCU -20
Baylor

Northwestern
Boston College -6.5

Miami Ohio
Missouri -22

Akron
Ohio State -38

Middle Tenn St
Purdue -6.5

Kent St
Alabama -34

Minnesota
USC -19

LA Monroe
FSU -28

South Florida
Notre Dame -2.5

Western Michigan
Michigan -9.5

Troy
Clemson -10.5

UCLA -3.5
Houston

BYU -4
Ole Miss

San Jose St
Stanford -29

Colorado St -3.5
New Mexico

Buffalo
Pittsburgh -24

Fresno St
California -10.5

Florida Atlantic
Florida -32

Ball St
Indiana -5.5

LA Lafayette
Oklahoma St -27

Rice
Texas -24

Army
Northern Illinois -7.5

East Carolina
South Carolina -10.5

Boise St -8
Georgia

Oregon -2
LSU

Ohio -11
New Mexico St

Tulsa
Oklahoma -16.5

LA Tech
Southern Miss -5

Colorado
Hawaii -1

Marshall
West Virginia -18.5

SMU
Texas A&M -12.5

Miami -5
Maryland

[accuscoresucks]

nice info

[gshock1]

I likes your thread last year and am glad this is back!

[HoldEmHook!!]

Wal my friend, How have you been, How ya been hitting them

[wal66]

Wal my friend, How have you been, How ya been hitting them

Sup. Holdem.

Man my game is so up and down right now it's scary. I am playing 2/3 of a round like I did before my knees got so bad but still struggling about 1/3 really bad.

Looking forward to some college football though. Not as stoked as in years past but maybe that is a good thing betting wise.

[HoldEmHook!!]

Sup. Holdem.

Man my game is so up and down right now it's scary. I am playing 2/3 of a round like I did before my knees got so bad but still struggling about 1/3 really bad.

Looking forward to some college football though. Not as stoked as in years past but maybe that is a good thing betting wise.

Seems that in years past when I am anxious about betting football I dont do as well. but when all is calm it seems I fair the best

[xyzky]

Wal66:

These numbers strictly off of PR's?

[wal66]

These are the rest of the opening weekend games with lines. Again these are adjusted lines and while they are partially from my program no games are full program adjusted lines until week #3.

Murray St
Louisville -29

Villanova -5.5
Temple

South Carolina St
Central Michigan -12.5

New Hampshire -4
Toledo

Fordham
UConn -30.5

Western Carolina
Georgia Tech -30

North Carolina Central
Rutgers -42

Montana St
Utah -24

UC Davis
Arizona St -25

Youngstown St
Michigan St -23.5

Indiana St
Penn St -39.5

Appalachian St
Virginia Tech -18

South Dakota
Air Force -27.5

James Maddison
North Carolina -28.5

Chattanooga
Nebraska -28.5

Arkansas St
Illinois -13

Delaware
Navy -8

Southeastern Louisiana
Tulane -10.5

Sacramento St
Oregon St -25.5

San Jose St
Stanford -29

Idaho St
Washington -22

Liberty
NC State -21

William & Marry
Virginia -2.5

Montana
Tennessee -11.5

Missouri St
Arkansas -31.5

Richmond
Duke EVEN

LA Lafayette
Oklahoma St -27

Eastern Washington
Washington -9.5

Charleston Southern
South Florida -32

Howard
Eastern Michigan -24

Mcneese St
Kansas -13.5

Eastern Kentucky
Kansas St -21.5

Elon
Vanderbilt -4.5

Cal Poly
San Diego St -12.5

[wal66]

Wal66:

These numbers strictly off of PR's?

These number are. I use PR's as a base for my program and then I have some other factors to mix in but I need some games to be played and preferably conference play before I add my mix.

Strictly a parameter this early in the season because those rankings have no real validity to them.

You will see my program plays start off a little slow and then really pick up in week's 4-9 then start to slow down again due to injuries and such.

[xyzky]

I think I remeber from last year. Good stuff and good luck this year.

[wal66]

The countdown is in the final phase and we are just a couple days away from getting to what many of us love watching as much or even more than wagering on. I have 5 games on tap for this opening week. I am not betting them heavy or even a full unit because until teams have some games under their belt no-one has anything more than speculation and expectations for these squads.

Week #1 Plays:

Kentucky -19.5
South Florida +10
Indiana -7
Boise State -3
LSU +2

Just playing these for $30 each just to get my toes wet.

[BigdaddyQH]

GL. Not real sure about the LSU wager. A pass for me.

[wal66]

QH, to be honest with you all 5 of these plays are worthy of being unsure of. Who knows what anyone is truly capable of the first week.

Take the Boise/Georgia game. Boise is always one of the best prepared teams in the country and often overlooked because of where they are from and basically the caliber of players they get there. Georgia enters the season with really high expectations and no question they have serious athletes but how well prepared are they, how cohesive a unit will they be?

The Oregon/LSU game has those components as well as the suspension of notable players. Lee will fill in at Qurterback and with that I think the Tigers are actually more of a threat. I'm not sold on LSU living up to the hype over the course of the season but kind of like them in the opening game.

I don't ever try to sell anyone on any of my plays and I am more than honest when I say I don't ever ask anyone to follow me and that goes especially the first 2 to 3 weeks of the season.

[wal66]

A little reasoning for the plays.

I have no real reasoning to support the Indiana play it just kind of stood out.

Kentucky while still a Kentucky team should be a little improved on defense and still athletic on offense and getting an opportunity to run up some points will probably do just that to set the tone for the crowd.

South Florida is as athletic of a team as any in the country. The depth is not that of some schools and they do make some mental mistakes that have hurt their cause but with the talent they have if they can play under control and DISCIPLINED assignment football they will be a force. There is a lot of hype and expectation surrounding Notre Dame and they may infact be better but I see USF hanging with them and causing them some problems on both sides of the ball. Notre Dame may win this game but I wouldn't be shocked if Holtz and the Bulls pulled off the upset. I feel comfortable with the points available.

Plenty of talk about how Georgia will be playing to save the coaches job. Maybe there is something to that maybe there isn't. There is no denying they are loaded with potential talent. Everyone says Boise doesn't play anyone, they don't play in a real conference blah blah blah. All that may be true but one thing is for sure, when Boise does play they are prepared for their opponent. They also have some very real and often under appreciated talent on their roster and that roster runs deep with depth. You give me a spot with a quality opponent on tap and an even more quality opponent on deck like South Carolina next week and I'll take my chances for a look ahead spot even in week 1.

Both Oregon and LSU have off the field issues that will result in on the field suspensions for the opening game. I don't think this hurts the Tigers and in fact may very well be a blessing in disguise as Lee is a much better passer and maybe a more controlled player than Jefferson. Oregon is fast no doubt but fast in the their conference and fast in the SEC is a little different regardless if you are an SEC fan or not. LSU has a better defense than did Auburn and that will be as big a difference maker than anything in this game from where I sit. The 2 points won't be an issue cause LSU wins straight up.

[jwbama23]

Wal, good luck buddy. Definitley one of the more stand up posters here

[wal66]

Much appreciated Bama. Let's have a great season and since I doubt my Gator's will meet your Tide in the SEC Championship I hope you won't hold my South Carolina future against me.

[pavyracer]

Good luck Wall. You are one of the best college football cappers here.

[AdaBarber]

What's up Wal? Let's be disciplined and make some dough. I finished on the plus side last year. And Green Bay bailed me out in the NFL. Best of luck to you my brother.

Mississippi St-28.5
W. Michigan+14
Colorado+7

[wal66]

Week #1 Plays:

Kentucky -19.5 LOSER
South Florida +10 WINNER
Indiana -7 LOSER
Boise State -3 WINNER
LSU +2 WINNER

Just playing these for $30 each just to get my toes wet.
Mixed emotions. I mean it's a winning opening card but without sounding like a complete asshole I'm not happy with anything less than 4-1 any given week. There was heavy reverse line movement in both the Kentucky and Indiana game that told us before kickoff that these were most likely losers.

My card will always be done early in the week but I may hold off till later in the week to post just to monitor line movement. It cost me several times last year as well.

[AdaBarber]

Look at the bright side. You profited. I had W. Kentucky with 17 points. I played USF. I wanted to take Boise and LSU but I didn't have the balls to go with those big games in the first week of the season. I went 4-2. Do you just play only 5 games a week? All my picks are based off of line movement, but I also figure in the percentages bet in the amount of tickets that were bet on that game on each team that causes that line movement.

[AdaBarber]

And my plays are picked and posted by Tuesday. Sometimes I will add some more later because I do miss some games and sometimes there isn't a large amount of tickets betted on that game to help me justify the movement. If you need some info inbox me or post it in my thread.

[AdaBarber]

If I were to take the A&M game I would take the points but the line is 15.5 and my cutoff is 16. To close for me to touch. Wish you well Wall!

[wal66]

Ada, the number of games vary. The first couple weeks of the season it's strictly old school capping then once the teams have a few games under their belt I have a program I have used for several years now and the number of games is based on the number of qualifiers.

Keeping with this theme I bet ultra light the first couple of weeks and then wager a little more once I am on the program but I ALWAYS wager equal amounts. I don't value one play more or less than another. I never understood that way of thinking. If I am going to risk money then I want to spread it around evenly. With the exception of Money Line dogs that is. I will bet them smaller since they obviously don't have the same edge as the points.

[wal66]

Wow!

Just ran the numbers for this weeks games and I don't feel good about what I am seeing. Looks like I will be favorite heavy and I never like it when I don't see some obvious dogs in some very good spots.

Michigan opening as a dog at home looks tasty but having a hard time deciding if it's not too easy looking. I watched the USF/Notre Dame game and the Irish moved the ball fairly easy just made really bad mistakes. I didn't see Michigan's game but I know they scored 2 touchdowns off turnovers so that doesn't tell me a lot about their offense.

I watched the majority of both South Carolina's game and Georgia's game and South Carolina cruised on offense once Garcia entered the game but the defense gave up more points than any backer should be comfortable with. Georgia was simply outplayed and out coached but they do have talented players on both sides of the ball.

Georgia and Notre Dame are 2 dog's I could make an argument for but the problem is my initial feeling even before this past week's results was they would both lose this week.

[thetrinity]

gl this week wal. im leaning to the irish myself. nd had a 14 point swing go against them, a kicker who couldnt make chip shots, -5 to margin, doubled usf in yards, basically played as awful as humanly possible, almost caused a brian kelly heart attack. michigan on the other hand had a 14 point swing in their favor, let a pass happy offense go up and down the field on them in a bad weather game, and was even in yardage against western michigan, a worse team then usf. georgia on the other hand, im not sure if they were beaten by a better squad, poorly coached, underachieving, maybe all of the above. south carolina did give up boatloads of points last time out. probably a pass for me in that one.

[wal66]

We could argue the Boise being the better team from here to eternity. I'm not a bandwagoner for them nor am I even a fan but I do appreciate what that team, those players past and present and the coaching staff have done there. I am NOT a fan of the soft schedule they play but be that as it may in big games they come to play.

Maybe a portion of that especially against Oklahoma a couple years ago is underestimation but even if that is the case there is no denying those guys line up and punch you right in the throat.

Georgia has problems. They have talented players and have for years but they are constant underachiever and that blame has to fall on the shoulders of the coach. Sure the coach doesn't jump offside or fumble the ball or over-throw receivers or drop passes but he and his staff are in charged with preparation.

Feel's good to be talking football for a change. Damn I miss this. The entire baseball season I had nothing to talk about.

[wal66]

This should be the last week where I am playing games based on what I THINK I know about the sport. Hopefully next week I will be able to use my program to aide in eliminating certain games and targeting the best edge.

Central Michigan +12.5
I didn’t watch a single highlight of Central Michigan but I watched just about all of the Kentucky game. There is some talent on the Kentucky team but they sure didn’t look together or prepared against Western Kentucky. Credit Western Kentucky for playing tough though. I’m not sure Kentucky should be a double digit favorite over many schools at this point. The potential is there but not sure it’s ready.

Stanford -21
No need to try and explain anything here as if it doesn’t cover it only makes me look really bad.

TCU -2.5
I know they lost their opener to Baylor but credit Baylor, they are a very good team with maybe one of the most dynamic quarterbacks we’ll see this season. TCU still has plenty of talent and they play hard. I expect them to get things clicking and still be a very good squad themselves. I don’t know enough about Air Force and I am a little puzzled by this line but gonna go with my gut and take TCU here.

California -6.5
I am taking a leap of faith on this game. Colorado didn’t look very impressive against Hawaii but how much of that is because it was played in paradise and more than a few teams get caught up in where they are instead of who they are playing.

South Carolina -2.5
Personally I have a lot on the line in this game. I predicted Georgia would start 0-2 and I’m halfway home after Boise did what I thought they would do this past Saturday. My problem is that South Carolina gave up a lot of points to East Carolina. Yes the Pirates can score in their conference but I thought South Carolina’s defense would be a little better than what I saw. The offense looked as good as expected once Garcia came into the game and look to see more of the same there.

It’s never easy to play on the road in the SEC and some places are tougher than others, between the hedges are one of those places. Spurrier really dislikes Georgia and hopefully that and a team loaded with talent will be enough to get this game and cover this line.

Vanderbilt +1
No reason just a hunch.

Same as last week, just playing all these small at $30 each.

[wal66]

These aren’t plays just opinions. I may actually play some as the week progresses but for now they are just my opinion and will hopefully generate a little dialog.

Florida International +4
Iowa -6.5
Florida Atlantic +32
Mississippi St -7
North Carolina -10.5
NC State -2.5
Tennessee -7
Hawaii +6.5
Alabama -10
Virginia -6.5
Western Kentucky +9.5
Utah +9
Central Florida -7

[miketp223]

I'm with you on FIU, WKU, and UCF. I think UCF will win the CUSA. In an ACC game I'm going with the home team. Wake Forest actually impressed me last week. I see them being optimistic about the Cuse loss and coming home for their opener and winning.

[HoldEmHook!!]

Wal, I too am on FIU, BAMA, MISS ST, Hawaii, CAL, The best of luck to you my friend

[wal66]

Thanks guys but, the second list is merely opinions. My only official plays as of now are the writeup and bold plays.

Be that as it may here's to all of us having a great weekend.

[22dsnyd22]

Virginia -6.5 is a good one to pound

[pavyracer]

This should be the last week where I am playing games based on what I THINK I know about the sport. Hopefully next week I will be able to use my program to aide in eliminating certain games and targeting the best edge.

Central Michigan +12.5
I didn’t watch a single highlight of Central Michigan but I watched just about all of the Kentucky game. There is some talent on the Kentucky team but they sure didn’t look together or prepared against Western Kentucky. Credit Western Kentucky for playing tough though. I’m not sure Kentucky should be a double digit favorite over many schools at this point. The potential is there but not sure it’s ready.

Stanford -21
No need to try and explain anything here as if it doesn’t cover it only makes me look really bad.

TCU -2.5
I know they lost their opener to Baylor but credit Baylor, they are a very good team with maybe one of the most dynamic quarterbacks we’ll see this season. TCU still has plenty of talent and they play hard. I expect them to get things clicking and still be a very good squad themselves. I don’t know enough about Air Force and I am a little puzzled by this line but gonna go with my gut and take TCU here.

California -6.5
I am taking a leap of faith on this game. Colorado didn’t look very impressive against Hawaii but how much of that is because it was played in paradise and more than a few teams get caught up in where they are instead of who they are playing.

South Carolina -2.5
Personally I have a lot on the line in this game. I predicted Georgia would start 0-2 and I’m halfway home after Boise did what I thought they would do this past Saturday. My problem is that South Carolina gave up a lot of points to East Carolina. Yes the Pirates can score in their conference but I thought South Carolina’s defense would be a little better than what I saw. The offense looked as good as expected once Garcia came into the game and look to see more of the same there.

It’s never easy to play on the road in the SEC and some places are tougher than others, between the hedges are one of those places. Spurrier really dislikes Georgia and hopefully that and a team loaded with talent will be enough to get this game and cover this line.

Vanderbilt +1
No reason just a hunch.

Same as last week, just playing all these small at $30 each.

Good luck Wal! I used 4 of your picks on BTP. I'd would give you 50% of the points I win.

[iwantcougars]

hey wal, are you posting all your system lines for week 2??

[wal66]

hey wal, are you posting all your system lines for week 2??

IWant, the adjusted lines I posted in Week #1 were not my program lines they were straight from Sargin's. I didn't post that this week cause I don't want to 2 confused.

Week #3 is when I start using my program to generate lines and will post them late Sunday evening's or Monday mornings the rest of the season.