1. #1
    Machine Choice
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    Machine Report: Wake Forest at Syracuse

    Alright, let's get started on 2011.

    Syracuse favored by 6.5. They come into the season experiencing something that hasn't happened in 9 years: a bowl win. This resulted in ticket sales going way up for the Thurs night opener in the Carrier Dome. Expect pandemonium under the lights after a day of tailgating and ESPN cameras rolling into town.

    Facing this environment is a sophomore QB at Wake (Price) whose passer rating last year was 68 and he threw more INTS (8) than TDs (7). All his primary receivers are gone except one. The Wake defense last year was ranked 111th out of 120 teams in points allowed. And now: they lost their DC in the offseason and are starting from scratch with a 3-4 scheme. Last year they started almost all freshmen on defense, I don't expect much improvement this year, it's not an experience issue it's a talent issue.

    Syracuse returns every starting receiver except Sales; their QB Nassib threw 19 TDs last year against 8 INTS and passed for 2,334 yards. WR Van Chew is a potential all-American. Their RB beast Carter is gone, but his replacement Bailey averages 4.9 ypc. The ENTIRE offensive line returns for 'Cuse. On defense: problems with returning only five starters. But wait, their DC is in his third year and he has successfully trimmed thier PPG allowed each of his first two years, by 5 ppg in 09 and 9 ppg in '10. I expect 'Cuse's defense to experience a very slight dropoff, but it won't matter against Wake's poor offense and inexperienced QB.

    The optimism surrounding Syracuse HC Doug Marrone in his third year is contagious. Wake has suffered a predictable dropoff in talent equivalent to the pre-Riley Skinner days. Bottom line: Syracuse has enough offensive weapons and good enough defensive coaching to handle Wake under the lights.

    On Sept. 1, break out the whiskey, paint it Orange and slam down the cash!

    SYRACUSE -6.5
    Last edited by Machine Choice; 08-20-11 at 05:55 PM.

  2. #2
    cowboyfan08
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    Dead on it one of my big plays!just put more on it now that u also like,hell yes!

  3. #3
    ackem19
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    Great write up. Anytime I a defense switches schemes (especially teams whose defense was already terrible) you can expect some growing pains early in the season. Looks like a good pick be BOL.

  4. #4
    2tddog
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    Thanks for the intel,usually hdcapp only pros

  5. #5
    daprospecta
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    One of my leans. We agree on a lot of the same points.

  6. #6
    Outhouse Tim
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    Sorry, not going to happen. WF is better than last year after suffering graduation losses the previous 2 years. Don't like the line movement, with LV now +7 at 3 casinos. 2*** WF with road dog tendencies.

  7. #7
    miketp223
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    WF was 1-5 ats on the road last year. Only played decent football at home.2008: 8-5 SU 2-3 ATS road. 2009: 5-7 SU 2-2-1 ATS Road (according to BetOnline stats). Last two years 2 out of the 3 ATS road wins have been against duke and vanderbilt. Pretty weak. Now those are just stats though. Clearly WF has been declining as a team the past 3 years.

    While syracuse lost their two leading tacklers and their leading running back I think they can manage. I see a messy game. I definitely think syracuse is better against OOC opponents than when they play big east opponents. I see a low scoring game though so I would pick the under 49 1/2 and cuse-7. Might be better to see if there is more value when the team totals come out.

  8. #8
    Machine Choice
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    Good gawd, put me in a coma and wake me up when NCAAF gets here. I can't stand waiting.

  9. #9
    Machine Choice
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    More good news for Syracuse backers

    http://rivals.yahoo.com/ncaa/footbal...rivals-1254835

  10. #10
    MartinBlank
    Going to be a good weekend
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    Machine....I am not here to bust your balls---I love college football---I have been here 3 plus years. I love good college football discussion in my threads, not so sure if you like it in yours. So, bear with me.

    I too liked the Syracuse pick---until they suffered their 13th fall camp injury on Saturday. Syracuse is like a walking mash unit right now, and I am curious if you that had any bearing in your evaluation of this game?

    Good luck, I hope you cash it.

  11. #11
    mp5070
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    Lets do it **

  12. #12
    MartinBlank
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    This is a report from veteran Syracuse beat writer Dave Rahme:

    Syracuse, NY -- The Syracuse University football team remained on schedule during camp, albeit with a roster seriously depleted by injuries, many of them concussions that are keeping players on the sideline.
    From my perspective the head injuries are puzzling. Camp has been high-paced and intense, but not anymore than other camps I have attended over the last two-plus decades. I have heard no ringing collisions suggestive of serious head-banging, nor have I witnessed any blatant helmet-to-helmet strikes. Yet, the number of players lining up to see the trainers with concussive symptoms seems to grow daily. It makes me wonder if there is some kind of equipment issue. At any rate the number of players standing on the sideline in shorts with these symptoms has exceeded double figures. I don’t believe I’ve ever seen anything like it.

  13. #13
    MartinBlank
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    This is another reports on Syracuse's devastating fall camp.....3 defensive starters are down.

    Syracuse, NY -- The hits keep coming for the Syracuse University football team – and not the kind that coaches like to see in what is starting to seem like a surreal preseason.
    On Wednesday, the team nearly ran out of centers because of various injuries.
    Friday, when most fans will get their only opportunity to watch a preseason Orange practice at SU’s Fanfest event, three starters from the defensive backfield – strong safety Shamarko Thomas, free safety Phillip Thomas and cornerback Keon Lyn – will be on the sideline.
    Shamarko Thomas sat out today with a concussion, one of three Orange players to suffer a head injury in Wednesday’s practice. Marrone said he is out indefinitely.
    Just before the end of today’s practice, sophomore Keon Lyn, penciled in as a starter at one cornerback spot, went down during a drill with an upper-body injury. Lyn was driven in a cart from the turf practice fields behind Manley Field House to the football wing, where he was helped into a trainer’s car and taken to a hospital.

  14. #14
    BigdaddyQH
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    Syracuse has a ton of players listed as questionable for this game. Pass.

  15. #15
    MartinBlank
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    Update...

    Per Steele....Syracuse has 5 listed starters as questionable at best, 3 out.

    I will update as the new injury report is released on Monday.

  16. #16
    Machine Choice
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    I posted a story that shows Wake banged up pretty bad. It's called football practice.

  17. #17
    TPowell
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    will dive into injuries later in the week when the focus gets clearer. I have this game pegged at Syracuse -11 so I think anything better than -7 is a great play. What does everybody else think about the line?

  18. #18
    Machine Choice
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    Quote Originally Posted by TPowell View Post
    will dive into injuries later in the week when the focus gets clearer. I have this game pegged at Syracuse -11 so I think anything better than -7 is a great play. What does everybody else think about the line?
    I placed 1/3 of what I intend to wager on this game at -6.5. The other 2/3 will be placed no earlier than 48 hours before kick-off so that I don't get bitten by a key player flaking out or being hurt. By then it will be -7 and probably -7.5 so I will have to buy the hook to keep the number.

    You say -11, that souds about right except that 'Cuse was flaky in the dome last year, so I don't think they'll pull a win greater than 7-10 points. But if you believe the press, Nassib is going to dominate under center for Syracuse this year. If he comes out clicking with these veteran receivers, we might see a 2 TD rout

  19. #19
    thetrinity
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    like the pick at under 7, small lean to the over as well.

  20. #20
    ExperienceWins
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    Wake comes off a miserable 3-9 season (3-8-1 ATS), and the Wake Forest Deacons have posted just four wins in the last 18 games, but things are looking up in Winston-Salem as an abundance of starters return. Veteran head coach Jim Grobe, in his 11th season at the school, has a solid foundation to work with. The offense gets back eight starters, including QB Tanner Price, who threw for 1,349 yards and 7 TD’s in his freshman year. However, WF was dismal in offensive production, ranking 108th in the nation with 308 ypg. The defense, which gets back nine starters, wasn’t much better, giving up 430 ypg (# 101). After going 14-45 between 2005 and 2009, Syracuse turned it all around last season with an 8-5 mark (8-5 ATS) and their first bowl appearance since 2004, where they beat Kansas State in a 36-34 nail-biter (pick’em) in the inaugural Pinstripe Bowl at Yankee Stadium. Head coach Doug Marrone has turned the program around in just two seasons and should maintain some level of success again this year with the return eight offensive starters and five on the defense. However, the offense lost Delone Carter, a 1,000-yard rusher drafted by the Colts, so expect the team to rely a bit more on the pass this season. The “O” only averaged 322 ypg (# 97) with former Duke cager Greg Paulus calling the signals, but the defense carried the team all season, ranking 7th in the nation with 301 ypg allowed. Wake is 5-17 ATS in their first road game of the season, while Syracuse is 7-2 ATS against non-conference foes lately.
    The spread currently favors the Syracuse Orange at a 6 and a half point favorite. We suggest you take the Syracuse Orange in a close game against the Wake Forest Deacons. You can watch the game on TV on ESPN3 and starts at 8 pm eastern time. Good luck with your picks and hope you enjoy the game.

    Decent write up that was online for free. However, the injuries could very well be an issue. Something to keep an eye on at least!

  21. #21
    ExperienceWins
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    ...

  22. #22
    Outhouse Tim
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    Why would the write-up recommend taking Syracuse in a close one vs. WF when laying 7? Strange.

    Meanwhile, my Power #'s have this Syracuse by 4.5, and like I said above, +7 is a fine take for me.

    Good luck all.

  23. #23
    TPowell
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    no play for me, my WF number was way off.

  24. #24
    ebbearsfb1
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    if anything i think the under would be the play

  25. #25
    Machine Choice
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    Alright, 4 days to go. Just checked in on the injury reports and scrimmage reports, neither team will be missing any starters at kickoff. Syracuse's injuries (about five total and not skill positions) involve second and third-team reserves.

    The line is now 'Cuse -7 almost everywhere. Still a rock-solid play, this team returns an offense that hung 36 on Kansas State in the bowl season. We will learn about the young 'Cuse defense pretty quick, I have confidence in Marrone, he is a hard-ass disciplinarian who caused almost 1/4 of the team to leave in 2009. The guys who stayed ended up in a bowl the next year.

    Let's roll

  26. #26
    Hat McCulloch
    rippin and shreddin
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    Syracuse had a great year last season but they will be lucky to win 6 this year. Wake isn't too good but I can't trust Syracuse until they show me something. Hope u win though

  27. #27
    Wrecktangle
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    Too many problem with 'Cuse on this game and a few issues with Wake also, however, if you must play Wake is the side.

  28. #28
    MartinBlank
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    Quote Originally Posted by Machine Choice View Post
    Alright, 4 days to go. Just checked in on the injury reports and scrimmage reports, neither team will be missing any starters at kickoff. Syracuse's injuries (about five total and not skill positions) involve second and third-team reserves.

    The line is now 'Cuse -7 almost everywhere. Still a rock-solid play, this team returns an offense that hung 36 on Kansas State in the bowl season. We will learn about the young 'Cuse defense pretty quick, I have confidence in Marrone, he is a hard-ass disciplinarian who caused almost 1/4 of the team to leave in 2009. The guys who stayed ended up in a bowl the next year.

    Let's roll
    I have no dog in this fight, but your injury report isn't really accurate.

    Phillip Thomas is Syracuse's leading returning tackler, and a starter at safety. He broke his jaw 2 weeks ago, and isn't going to be playing this weekend.

    Keon Lyn is another player that had pretty much wrapped up one of the starting corner spots and he injured his shoulder last saturday. Syracuse is listing him as "questionable" at best.

    As for Wake. They have lost a few players as well.

    Junior DE and returning starter Kevin Smith was dismissed from the team 2 days into fall camp.

    Kenny Okoro is a returning starter at corner for Wake and he went down with a leg injury on Friday.

  29. #29
    gshock1
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    Great write up machine. Good luck my man!

  30. #30
    Machine Choice
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    Quote Originally Posted by MartinBlank View Post
    I have no dog in this fight, but your injury report isn't really accurate.

    Phillip Thomas is Syracuse's leading returning tackler, and a starter at safety. He broke his jaw 2 weeks ago, and isn't going to be playing this weekend.

    Keon Lyn is another player that had pretty much wrapped up one of the starting corner spots and he injured his shoulder last saturday. Syracuse is listing him as "questionable" at best.

    As for Wake. They have lost a few players as well.

    Junior DE and returning starter Kevin Smith was dismissed from the team 2 days into fall camp.

    Kenny Okoro is a returning starter at corner for Wake and he went down with a leg injury on Friday.
    Phillip Thomas: go to Rivals and check out Marrone's statement on Sunday. Phillip Thomas is 100% and is starting.

    Keon Lyn is a backup and is expected to play anyway.

    Wake Forest injuries: I don't care because I'm fading them. The more the better. But I can tell you that Covers shows no starters for Wake injured.

  31. #31
    Machine Choice
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    Quote Originally Posted by MartinBlank View Post
    I have no dog in this fight, but your injury report isn't really accurate.

    Phillip Thomas is Syracuse's leading returning tackler, and a starter at safety. He broke his jaw 2 weeks ago, and isn't going to be playing this weekend.

    Keon Lyn is another player that had pretty much wrapped up one of the starting corner spots and he injured his shoulder last saturday. Syracuse is listing him as "questionable" at best.

    As for Wake. They have lost a few players as well.

    Junior DE and returning starter Kevin Smith was dismissed from the team 2 days into fall camp.

    Kenny Okoro is a returning starter at corner for Wake and he went down with a leg injury on Friday.
    I appreciate good discussion. However, make sure your facts are accurate before inserting info into a write-up.

    Phillip Thomas is starting and self-reports being pain-free and at 95%, 100% by game time:
    http://blog.syracuse.com/orangefootb...ree_safet.html

    Keon Lyn is a backup to starter Rishard Anderson
    http://syracuse.rivals.com/cdepthtext.asp

  32. #32
    Duby
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    Cuse by 10!

    GL Machine

  33. #33
    MartinBlank
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    Quote Originally Posted by Machine Choice View Post
    Phillip Thomas: go to Rivals and check out Marrone's statement on Sunday. Phillip Thomas is 100% and is starting.

    Keon Lyn is a backup and is expected to play anyway.

    Wake Forest injuries: I don't care because I'm fading them. The more the better. But I can tell you that Covers shows no starters for Wake injured.
    Umm, did you even bother to read your own articles?

    Here is the link....

    http://blog.syracuse.com/orangefootb...at_safety.html

    And this is a quote from that link:

    Thomas, who missed most of preseason camp after suffering a fractured jaw in practice Aug. 7, is back on the field, Marrone said. So is Lyn, who was the starting field-side cornerback until going down with a shoulder injury during a practice drill Aug. 12.

    So...Lyn is not a back up, he was the starter at corner, as I said.

    As for Thomas---he still is wearing a protective jersey in practice----and hasn't had any contact in over a month. I will be floored if starts on Thursday.

    Good luck with the pick.

  34. #34
    Machine Choice
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    Quote Originally Posted by MartinBlank View Post
    Umm, did you even bother to read your own articles?

    Here is the link....

    http://blog.syracuse.com/orangefootb...at_safety.html
    Umm....did you even bother to read your rebuttal link? (which I didn't post, by the way). It specifically says that Lyn is listed #2 on depth chart behind Rishard. So the article contradicts itself.

    Either way, whether Rishard starts or Lyn is ready to go, it won't matter because Wake does not have a passing game.

  35. #35
    khaden
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    man I can't freakin wait for foots to start--lets roll boys$$$$$

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