[aeshred]

Hey guys I was putting together a systematic approach to rating games, finding values much like some experts and vegas does by a computer system or AI and the like. So basically last night building a spreadsheet by categories and total team break downs in MS excel.

Whats funny is I soon realized that it would on a weekly basis take some mad man-hours to constantly update this thing considering there is over 120 teams and a sh*t ton of possible categories to matchup. Im not saying its not possible, but with work, schol, family, responsibilities its not reasonably feasible for an amatuer capper to do these things so the best thing i or anybody else in my situation can do is just use this system on games that we like the best.

So to all of you my question lies; (besides the main categories listed below) what do you think is neccessary for such a system of analysis?

Overall Team Grade (Wins)
Overall Team Grade Competition (break down by % and categorize)
Coach grade (base on winning percentage, past present etc...)
Returning Starters O
Returning Starters D
Home Adv
Away Grade

Total O
Total Rush
Total Pass
how these matchup etc...
Total D
Rush D
Pass D

Special Teams Off
Special Teams Def
Pts Rating
Turnovers
Penalties

Like I said and implied this is just an experiment that will grow over time a pleasure in a mere passtime. Its something that prob wouldnt even be beneficial untill 3 or 4 games have passed. I know many of you have your own systems of analysis, or maybe you just study and follow teams, whatever it may be it doesnt matter any input would greatly be appreciated. Thanks!

[MartinBlank]

Hey guys I was putting together a systematic approach to rating games, finding values much like some experts and vegas does by a computer system or AI and the like. So basically last night building a spreadsheet by categories and total team break downs in MS excel.

Whats funny is I soon realized that it would on a weekly basis take some mad man-hours to constantly update this thing considering there is over 120 teams and a sh*t ton of possible categories to matchup. Im not saying its not possible, but with work, schol, family, responsibilities its not reasonably feasible for an amatuer capper to do these things so the best thing i or anybody else in my situation can do is just use this system on games that we like the best.

So to all of you my question lies; (besides the main categories listed below) what do you think is neccessary for such a system of analysis?

Overall Team Grade (Wins)
Overall Team Grade Competition (break down by % and categorize)
Coach grade (base on winning percentage, past present etc...)
Returning Starters O
Returning Starters D
Home Adv
Away Grade

Total O
Total Rush
Total Pass
how these matchup etc...
Total D
Rush D
Pass D

Special Teams Off
Special Teams Def
Pts Rating
Turnovers
Penalties

Like I said and implied this is just an experiment that will grow over time a pleasure in a mere passtime. Its something that prob wouldnt even be beneficial untill 3 or 4 games have passed. I know many of you have your own systems of analysis, or maybe you just study and follow teams, whatever it may be it doesnt matter any input would greatly be appreciated. Thanks!

Great questions and I love this type of post. That is why I came here.

I create my own set of power rankings----they are a combination of last year's performance---(Team Win Total, Bowl Performance) added to an offensive rating--which is a combination of total offense multiplied by a qualitative number I give to things like % returning yards, OL starts, and QB ranking-----I also add in a defensive rating which is a combination of multiple defensive numbers.

That takes me about a week---and I start in early August and it takes me about 1-2 hours a night.

After that I can rank each team 1-120. Here is where it gets tricky and subjective for me. I assign each position---(NOT TEAM), but position---a numerical value 0-46. The team that I can #1 has a zero--the team ranked 120th gets a 46-----translated that means if the #1 team (Oklahoma) played my 120th ranked team (New Mexico)-----on a neutral field, OU would be favored by 46.

As the season progresses------instead of getting bogged down in team statistics (because they can vary depending upon opponent quality)-----I award teams points for a win--more for a Top 25 win than a win over a 1-AA team. I then re-rank them with a simple stroke of the key and I then place them into my 0-46 scale and I get point spread values week to week with roughly 2 plus hours of work. I try to get my numbers done before the NFL kicks off, and I look for early line value when the numbers are released on Sunday night.

If you want more info----send me off a PM.