[pags11]

demize21,

no problem...appreciate it...

[spongerat]

if you're in this timezone then i see you're up all night too. any thoughts on the 3 games tonight? i like buffalo, Vtech, and UNLV to all cover and possibly win SU

[Flaghunter]

PLAY NUMBER TWO:

Maryland +2.5 (+101) for 1.5 units

Could you explain the units and the (+101) I'm not new to the picking process but I am lost with the units and so forth. Thanks for the reply. I also will be following your lead, reading the replys from other people you seem to understand the process and know what is going on.

[laxdjock]

Instead of using money, people use units....so everything is relative. One person pay regularly bet $100 per game, while someone else bets $500 per game. Looking at +/- money can be confusing, but using "units" it helps keep things simple and comparable to others.

As for the +101, -110, etc. That is known as 'vig' or 'juice'. The way books make money (assuming 50% bet on each side) is through the vig. Everything is based off of a base number of 100. If the number is 100, there is no vig and $100 pays $100. You'll commonly see -110 which means you must bet 110 to win 100. A +110 means 100 would win you 110, etc.

[michiganstatefan]

Pags i Like your picks but how do you feel about Northwestern +3.5, dont let scUM fool you they still are terrible and there d cannot handle batcher, and their offensive scheme still has a few kinks, i think this is a very easy play

[pags11]

spongerat,

yeah, I watch a lot of tape and am up pretty late...no opinion on the three games this evening (had some interest if Miami would have come out at -3 or less though)...GL if you decide to play one...

flaghunter,

laxdjock pretty much explained it...GL this week...

laxdjock,

thanks for your explanation...BOL to you this week...

michiganstatefan,

wouldn't touch that game with a ten foot pole, although I do like the way Michigan is continuing to fight late in the season and Northwestern appears to be fading...still wouldn't get involved though...GL this week...

[strictlywinners]

All of your plays look very solid, this week. I actually like alot of them on moneyline as well.

[pags11]

strictlywinners,

thank you very much...BOL to you this week...

[snutz69]

Pags,

Great week last week! Thanks again for posting these. Diggin all 5. Question tho would you still play NC State at +3?

Thanks

[laxdjock]

Thoughts on VTech +4.5? I took the ML @ +155 because I thought that was a better value, but I'm curious as to your take on this game.

[pags11]

snutz69,

thank you...not a problem...I'm seeing 3.5 everywhere (bookmaker is showing 4) with NCSU...so yeah I'd still recommend the play as of now...

laxdjock,

no real opinion on the game...was hoping Miami would come out under a FG but that was wishful thinking...just going to watch this one...GL with what you decide...

[pags11]

just sitting down to do my write-ups...should have them posted within a couple of hours...

[johnnymapalo]

Pags, great capping, been watching your picks for a while. One thing though, how can anybody put any money on Maryland. Maryland sucks donkey nuts. Home or away Maryland sucks. Man, I'm all over North Carolina -2.5. That's my favorite play of the week. I feel they will wipe out Maryland from early. I feel this game gets real ugly for Maryland. Good luck....

[VegasDave]

Good luck Pags! Though lately hasn't seemed like you've needed it

Keep it rolling.

[pags11]

Air Force +4

At first glance most people will look at what they perceive to be a “short” number with BYU this week, but further research leads me to believe they will have their hands full this Saturday. Troy Calhoun has his Air Force squad playing some very good football heading into this game. I’ve talked before about how much respect I have for BYU Head Coach Bronco Mendenhall, but I have even more respect for Calhoun and the job he has done the past two seasons at Air Force, this season in particular. Air Force is not a glamorous team, and what I mean by that is that their roster isn’t full of a bunch of blue chip recruits and it often makes people less inclined to play their games. However, what Air Force has is a bunch of disciplined, hard working, and now even more athletic players who are committed to a team goal. I’ve stressed how hard it is for teams to prepare for the triple option in one week, and while I understand that BYU has had some past success vs. Air Force I do think they will have difficulty dealing with Air Force’s balance on offense. Balance you ask? Yes, since Calhoun decided to switch to freshman QB Tim Jefferson (59% comp., 5 TD/ 2 INT, 4.0 ypc., 2 TD) the team has gone on a five game winning streak. Jefferson, is tall, athletic and extremely accurate with the football. Air Force has always had a strong running game and this year is no different with the trio of RB’s Todd Newell (4.2 ypc., 3 TD), Asher Clark (4.8 ypc., 4 TD) and Kyle Lumpkin (3.9 ypc., 1 TD) leading the way. What’s unique about this year’s offense is their ability to hit the big play down the field with the pass, as shown by Air Force’s top two WR yard’s per catch. Kyle Halderman (29.9 ypr., 4 TD) and Kevin Fogler (21.4 ypr.) stretch the field and TE Travis Dekker (13.0 ypr., 2 TD) makes catches to move the chains. I feel they will be able to exploit a BYU defense that seems to have worn down as the season has gone on, which is also a defense that hasn’t played nearly as well on the road as it does at home. As impressive as Air Force has been on offense, they are even more impressive on the defensive side of the ball. They have a lot of team speed and tackle very well, and I really like the blitz schemes that Calhoun incorporates. They will need another good defensive effort this week, as BYU is an offense with a lot of big play ability. Max Hall is one of the more talented QB’s in the country and WR Austin Collie is as good of a deep threat as there is in the country as well. TE Dennis Pitta makes big catches over the middle and WR Michael Reed is a solid pass catcher. Fortunately for Air Force, though, RB Harvey Unga is a bit banged up and the BYU offensive line just hasn’t been the same since the TCU game. I anticipate Air Force trying to make BYU offense one dimensional, which could help Air Force as the game goes on. Many people are questioning Air Force’s schedule thus far but is it really that much weaker than BYU’s at this point in the season? I think not. I’ll take Air Force and the points in this one.


Maryland +2.5

I’m extremely impressed with the job Butch Davis has done in his two years at North Carolina. Many of you who follow my plays regularly know how much I have played on his team both last year and at the beginning of this year. I do think, though, that there is some value in playing against his team this week, with a Maryland team who has had a couple of extra days to prepare and is one that plays much better at home than they do on the road. The Maryland defense will have to do a better job that it did last week at stopping the run and I anticipate them doing so this week. Although they had a rough first half against Va. Tech I was impressed with defensive adjustments they made in the second half of last week’s game, keeping their team in the ball game. This is a sign of a Ralph Friedgen coached ball club, as he is a good in game coach. Not saying that he’s a better in-game coach than Davis, just noting that I feel the coaching match-up in this game is fairly equal. It appears that QB Cam Sexton will get the start this week for North Carolina, but I do expect T.J. Yates to play. Sexton has excellent footwork and a strong throwing arm, but Yates is the more experienced of the two. WR Hakeem Nicks will play on Sundays and will be a tough match-up for the Maryland defense and WR Brooks Foster is a good possession receiver. RB Shawn Drawn has emerged as the go-to back and Ryan Houston usually gets the ball around the goal line. In previous games the loss of KR/PR/WR Brandon Tate hasn’t shown to be a problem, but playing without him could become an issue this week. Maryland’s front seven usually plays much better at home against the run. This will put North Carolina in some third and long situations and if the secondary can roll coverages Nicks' way, it should limit North Carolina's ability to make plays downfield. Maryland has as much balance on offense as does any team in the ACC. QB Chris Turner (59.4% comp., 9 TD/ 6 INT) has been making excellent decisions with the football the past month. He is an excellent game manager and has a stable of running backs to hand the ball to. It appears as though Da’Rel Scott (5.2 ypc., 5 TD), who has been fighting a shoulder injury, will start this week. Scott is their most explosive back, but Davin Meggett (5.2 ypc., 3 TD) is a more than capable understudy. Converted QB Josh Portis (5.8 ypc., 1 TD) is also a viable option. Maryland’s offensive line is one of the strengths of their team. They open up holes for the running game and do a good job protecting Turner in the passing game. Look for Maryland to get the ball early to their top playmaker, WR Darrius Heyward-Bey (30 rec., 5 TD, 19.2 ypc., 1 TD). Heyward-Bey runs a 4.3 in the sand and can break one for a TD at any given time. WR Danny Oquendo (16 rec., 1 TD) is a veteran possession receiver, and Dan Gronkowski (23 rec., 3 TD) is one of the better TE’s in the ACC. As we all know in the ACC anything can happen on a given Saturday. I don’t see a whole lot of difference between these two teams and feel that the spot is good for Maryland who is 5-0 at home heading into this game. It is also worth noting that North Carolina has done the majority of their damage this past month while playing at home, having played only one road game in their past five games. I’ll take Maryland and the points here.


N.C. State +4

I mentioned last week that this N.C. State team was playing much better football and that their chances of playing very competitive football the rest of the season were good. Their performance last week was not surprising and I expect a similar effort from them again this week in a game that matches two very similarly talented, and similarly coached teams. The most impressive performance last week was from NCSU middle linebacker Nate Irving. Irving had been injured earlier in the year and got some much needed rest during NCSU’s bye week and it showed last week. The guy was flying around making tackle after tackle, and making the young defenders around him better with each play. Duke and Wake Forest run similar types of offenses, as they focus on the short passing game and pound the ball at you with their two running backs. Reports I have read say that RB Josh Adams will play this week along with RB Brandon Pendergrass. Both backs are talented, but have struggled so far this year due to issues with Wake Forest’s offensive line, as shown by their respective 3.5 ypc. and 3.1 ypc. Those same issues have put a lot of pressure on Wake QB Riley Skinner. Skinner does have a viable receiving option in WR D.J. Boldin. Fortunately for NCSU, Wake has struggled to find another consistent receiving threat, which should allow them to focus on the Wake running game. Most importantly, reports I have read have outstanding kicker Sam Swank still out for this contest. This has also put a lot of pressure on the Wake offense, as previously they were within field goal range any time they reached the opposing team’s 35 yard line. This is not the case now as their younger kicker, who has shown improvement the past couple weeks, is still not Swank. This game should be a chess match between two excellent football coaches. Wake Forest’s Jim Grobe and NCSU’s Tom O’Brien should have their respective teams ready to play, but at this point of the season I do feel that O’Brien has the better overall team. I’ve talked before about NCSU QB Russell Wilson (56.5% comp., 10 TD/ 1 INT) , who the most underrated QB in the ACC, if not the most underrated QB in the country. NCSU does have some issues with their pass protection, but fortunately enough for NCSU Wilson's mobility allows him to make plays outside the pocket. RB Andre Brown (4.1 ypc., 4 TD) gets the tough yards between the tackles and RB Jamal Eugene (5.6 ypc., 18 rec.) stretches defenses sideline to sideline and also does a good job catching the ball out of the backfield. NCSU’s TE Anthony Hill (10 rec., 2 TD) is showing everyone, NFL scouts included, that when healthy that he is as good of a tight end as there is in the country. He’s big and physical, while still possessing a tremendous set of hands. NCSU’s young receiving corp. is really starting to mature as Owen Spencer (23 rec., 2 TD), Jarvis Williams (14 rec., 4 TD) and T.J. Graham (13 rec.) are all doing a better job with their route-running and are taking some pressure off the running game. Wake has really struggled to score on the road, especially in conference. While they may have a slight edge defensively, I feel NCSU has a decided edge offensively and they are at home getting points. I’ll take my chances with them here.


Navy +3

What you have to first understand about the game this weekend between Navy and Notre Dame is that it is extremely silly to think that Notre Dame is the more talented (and better coached) football team. Could they end up covering this game? Sure. All I’ve heard all week is how mad Notre Dame is that they lost to Navy last year and how much “revenge” they are going to have going into this game. Trust me people, revenge in college football is highly overrated. Remember that much of who is going to win on a given Saturday comes down to fundamentals. So Florida St. beat Wake for a couple of decades, but guess what? Wake has won the last three. Things change. Yes, Notre Dame has owned Navy over the years, but last year Navy got the monkey off their back and I expect the new streak to continue on Saturday. Funny that no one is mentioning that Notre Dame is 1-15 against teams with winning records in their last sixteen games. Most of you know that I’m not a real big trend guy. I do think that Navy has a decided situational edge coming into this game as well. Navy is a tough team to play on at home because before their home games they still have to get up early and perform all of their duties, then they go play their football game. However, when Navy is on the road (including when they play at a neutral site as they will be this week while playing at M&T Bank Stadium), their regimen is much more relaxed. They get to sleep in more and are more focused on their task at hand of playing football. This is why if you look at Navy’s ATS record at home compared to playing on the road it is night and day. I also think they catch Notre Dame at a good time as there is much controversy surrounding their struggles the past two seasons. I’ve mentioned before that I watch a lot of press conferences each week and regularly watch Charlie Weis’s. At the beginning of the season when Notre Dame was busy beating weaker teams at home, Weis was laid back, sitting back calmly in his chair as he addressed the media. Recently, though, he has appeared very stressed, sitting more upright and has been very defensive with the media. Now he’s taken over play calling and that’s supposed to be the answer? Anyone remember earlier in the year when Auburn fired OC Tony Franklin and Tubberville took over play calling? I think we all saw how that turned out. I’m not certain why “associate head coach” Jon Tenuta isn’t the DC, as I think he’s one of the better defensive minds in college football. This Notre Dame team is a mess all the way around. Throw in the recent struggles of QB Jimmy Clausen and their non-existent running game and this is a Notre Dame team that just isn’t as good as they, or everyone else, thinks they are. I do think WR’s Golden Tate and Michael Floyd are talented, but they are the only two playmakers this offense has, and can only make plays if Clausen can deliver them the ball on time. Much has been made about Navy’s atrocious defense, but they are a much improved unit since last season, giving up an averrage of 375 yards and less than 26 points per game. I’m not saying Notre Dame’s not going to score in this game, I’m just saying that Navy is going to simply outscore them with their efficient triple option attack. I believe that Navy RB Shun White (8.4 ypc., 6 TD) will one day play in the NFL, as will FB Erik Kettani (5.5 ypc., 2 TD). Remember that many of Navy’s players are Paul Johnson’s recruits, which leads me to talk about freshman QB Ricky Dobbs (85.7 comp. %, 5.1 ypc.). I understand that Navy Head Coach Ken Niumatalolo has said that senior QB Jerod Bryant will start, but I expect Dobbs to get a good deal of snaps and let me tell you, this kid is a playmaker. He has WR Tyre Barnes (15 rec., 2 TD) to throw the ball, and possesses a tremendously strong throwing arm. If Dobbs comes into this game, which I think he will, Notre Dame is going to be in trouble. Navy is tired of listening to how embarrassed Notre Dame was to lose to them last year, which just gives them that much more motivation to go out and beat them again on Saturday. It’s Navy and the points for me here.


Rutgers +7.5

Rutgers was a team that most people forgot about after the first month of the season, but they have been playing some very good football the past month and catch a South Florida team who, while off a bye week, comes into this game already disappointed with the season they’ve had. I wasn’t aware until watching Rutgers’ game this past week that QB Mike Teel (58% comp., 12 TD/10 INT) is now Rutger’s all-time leading passer. Once he stopped trying to throw punches at his teammates, and he figured out it was better to try and throw the ball to them he’s had a lot more success. Every time I watch WR Kenny Britt (60 rec., 4 TD) I become more impressed and his counter part Tiquan Underwood (25 rec., 2 TD) has started to live up to his 2007 billing, finding the end zone twice last week. WR Tim Brown (20 rec., 4 TD) and TE Kevin Brock (22 rec., 2 TD) round out one of the best receiving corps in the Big East. What’s even more intriguing that the resurgence of the Rutgers’ passing game, has been RB Kordell Young’s performance running the football since finally becoming healthy. Young has emerged as one of the best backs in the Big East and grows stronger with each week. A good deal of his success has been due to the maturation of the Rutgers’ young offensive line. Remember that Rutgers Head Coach Greg Schiano is an excellent recruiter and his efforts are starting to pay dividends late in the season on both sides of the football. There’s no doubt that South Florida has a good defense, with their defensive line in particular being their strength. They are also a unit that usually plays better at home. That being said, I feel that Rutgers’ balance on offense will allow them to move the football on USF and ultimately come up with scoring drives that will keep them in the football game. Defensively, Rutgers has given up an average of less than 17 points per game their last six games. They will need another good effort from their defense this week as they will be facing a Matt Grothe led offense. Grothe makes plays with his feet and does have the ability to make plays through the air, but struggles at times with his accuracy. Both of his running backs, Mike Ford and Jamar Taylor, should be healthy for this game, but USF Head Coach has yet to settle on a go-to back which appears to hurt USF in crucial running situations late in games. Grothe has four good wide receivers to throw the ball to in Taurus Johnson, Jessie Hester, Carlton Mitchell and A.J. Love. The Rutgers’ defense will have its hands full but I believe they will be up to the task this week. I’ll take Rutgers and the points in this one.

[spongerat]

great as always pags, thanks and good luck

[pags11]

spongerat,

glad you enjoyed the write-ups...thank you...GL to you as well...

[I.R.B]

Pags pal gl this weekend...

[pags11]

i.r.b.,

thanks bud...GL to you as well...

[Cougar Bait]

Only one I'm not playing is Rutgers...just soured on them early on and can't bring myself to do it, especially on the road. Decided to put double units on NC State this week as opposed to Maryland because I think their matchup is better. GL this week and let's crush those books again! Great write ups Pags...

[pags11]

cougar bait,

thanks for your feedback...glad to hear that we will be on a couple of these together...thanks man...GL to you as well...

[Aztec4Life]

Thanks for bringin the SBR forum to my attention bro!

With you on Navy and Air Force this Saturday. GL as always bud!

[pags11]

aztec4life,

not a problem, glad you made it over here to read some of my stuff...glad we will be on those two together...as always, enjoy hashing out these games with you and others over at CTG...BOL to you this week my friend...

[1flgator]

Maryland linebacker Rick Costa has been suspended indefinitely for violating the university's student-athlete code of conduct, coach Ralph Friedgen said at his weekly press conference on Tuesday. Costa started two of Maryland's nine games and is second on the team in sacks (three) and tackles for loss (seven). He split time with senior Trey Covington at Maryland's "LEO" position, a hybrid end-linebacker role

don't know if you saw this headline from 11/11/2008

being a starter for only 2 games but one of the better tacklers and sack leaders, how will this impact the performance and the ability to keep nc from scoring td instead of 3 pointers

[atlsportsfan]

Pags congrats on another great week last week and thanks for posting your plays again this week. I was wondering if you had any leans tonight between Cinni and Louisville? I know you capped both their games last week and was wanting to get your thoughts as they play each other tonight. Again thanks for all your hard work. Love your navy pick btw

[DeluxeLiner]

pags i dig all of your picks, and very much agree with you on them. Think this is one of your sharpest cards. Got a couple of them on the ml (I know you are rarely ml). BOL this week. Hope we crush the books!

[1flgator]

as you know pags i'm with you on most of your picks, i hope you don't mind a little difference in the analysis. i don't have a particular management system, or trends that i work from, trusting experience i see the way nc has work with several setbacks, but with a lot of grit they have pulled through. th nd game there was a bad call that would have made the # with ease, but other than that they have been the better team. if the # stays at 2.5 i think i'll play nc on a small unit and keep my fingers crossed.

bol to all the boy's this week
" It's great to be a Fl Gator!!"

[Dana4U]

Great analysis (as always) Pags. On board with all of your picks and taking the ML on a couple of them as well. Hope to go 5-0 this weekend!

[Dana4U]

pags i dig all of your picks, and very much agree with you on them. Think this is one of your sharpest cards. Got a couple of them on the ml (I know you are rarely ml). BOL this week. Hope we crush the books!

Which games are you considering for the ML? I'm thinking NC State, Maryland and maybe Rutgers.

[Henry]

Paggs,

With you on all 5. I'm glad I waited, I got Navy +4. I'm also on Cincy-4 tonight.

GL my friend!!

[taurus]

Well I just finished my weekly Friday morning seminar and as always - great job. I see no reson not to join you on all 5 tomorrow.
GL

[SoonerGreg]

Nice write-ups as usual. I'm tailing you on everything except Navy. The last time I was on every pick but one I went 6-1 and your were 7-0. Lets cash it big again!

[pags11]

1flgator,

the people close to the Maryland program I speak with feel Maryland has a lot of depth at the linebacker position, so while I'm not pleased about Costa's suspension, I'm not sure that it will be the difference in the game on Saturday...as I said before, I have respect for what North Carolina has done so far this season (although I respectfully disagree that they should have covered the Notre Dame game, as they were severly outplayed during a lot of that game)...sounds like you are trying to convince yourself into making a North Carolina play, if you want to play the other side be my guest but I don't see as much value in that side as you seem to do...BOL to you tomorrow...

atlsportsfan,

thank you very much...no real opinion in tonight's game...Louisville is struggling but you will get a great effort from them tonight and as much as I like Brian Kelly and his Cincinnati team I don't feel tonight is the night to play them...

deluxeliner,

appreciate it very much...BOL to you as well...

dana,

I won't be playing any of these on the ML, but don't blame you if you choose to do so with those three...GL this week...

henry,

glad to hear we will be together on these games...thank you...GL to you as well...

taurus,

ol' pal, thanks for stopping by as you usually do...glad we will be together on these games and I look forward to going over to CTG and reading the "Bull Sheet"...BOL to you tomorrow...

[pags11]

soonergreg,

glad that you enjoyed the write-ups...thank you...glad to hear we will be on most of these games together...GL this weekend...

[Henry]

Paggs,

I think there might be value on FSU since the suspensions were announced today. I see it down to FSU -5.5. Remember last week it dropped down to FSU-4. The same can happen this week, and if it continues to drop, I'll hit it again. I posted the reasons in my thread.

What's your take on it?