1. 05-22-11 02:39 PM #1
    Wrecktangle
    Wrecktangle's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 03-01-09
    Posts: 1,524
    Betpoints: 3209

    The advantage of Homecoming

    I'm trying to quantify the HFA of playing in a HC game. I've got an incomplete set of games that has the Homecoming game indicated. Any one have a data set going back further than about 10 years? I'd be happy to swap against any of the other data sets I have for this.

    Thanks.
    Last edited by Wrecktangle; 05-23-11 at 07:19 AM. Reason: spello
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  2. 05-22-11 03:27 PM #2
    RPP
    RPP's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 09-07-09
    Posts: 650
    Betpoints: 18

    This is an interesting angle. Will be cool to see what you end up getting.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  3. 05-23-11 07:30 AM #3
    Wrecktangle
    Wrecktangle's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 03-01-09
    Posts: 1,524
    Betpoints: 3209

    With the data set I have, the value I'm showing is about 1.5 points, but the error bounds go from 0 to about 3 points. The market value comes in at 1.4 (average line) so the market has it "baked in" it seems.

    Naturally I need the real value to adjust my power scores for those games.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  4. 05-23-11 09:16 AM #4
    BigdaddyQH
    BigdaddyQH
    BigdaddyQH's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 07-13-09
    Posts: 19,530
    Betpoints: 8638

    The biggest advantage is that most homecoming games are scheduled against the weakest conference opponent that the school is facing at home.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  5. 05-23-11 10:34 AM #5
    WorkHorse
    WorkHorse's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 08-22-10
    Posts: 2,185
    Betpoints: 18

    Wreck, Alabama's all-time homecoming record is 76-12. I would think that all the top tier teams would be similar because as BD posted, most teams play weak teams for homecoming.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  6. 05-23-11 10:40 AM #6
    chunk
    chunk's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 02-08-11
    Posts: 805
    Betpoints: 19168

    Quote Originally Posted by BigdaddyQH View Post
    The biggest advantage is that most homecoming games are scheduled against the weakest conference opponent that the school is facing at home.
    Hmmm. Overconfidence+pep rally+party+tryst= Pound the dog! Sorry Wreck....just making light of a serious question.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  7. 05-24-11 08:18 AM #7
    Wrecktangle
    Wrecktangle's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 03-01-09
    Posts: 1,524
    Betpoints: 3209

    Quote Originally Posted by WorkHorse View Post
    Wreck, Alabama's all-time homecoming record is 76-12. I would think that all the top tier teams would be similar because as BD posted, most teams play weak teams for homecoming.
    Are those games listed someplace? That would be a start.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  8. 05-24-11 08:20 AM #8
    Wrecktangle
    Wrecktangle's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 03-01-09
    Posts: 1,524
    Betpoints: 3209

    Quote Originally Posted by BigdaddyQH View Post
    The biggest advantage is that most homecoming games are scheduled against the weakest conference opponent that the school is facing at home.
    BD, this is the problem. Because of this you can't simply list out the HC games vs the "normal" HFA to determine the HC advantage. Also, my sample size is too small.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  9. 05-24-11 09:33 AM #9
    BigdaddyQH
    BigdaddyQH
    BigdaddyQH's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 07-13-09
    Posts: 19,530
    Betpoints: 8638

    Here is a twist. Last year USC held it homecoming game at night, against Oregon, the team that went on to play Auburn in the N.C. game.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  10. 05-25-11 08:36 AM #10
    Wrecktangle
    Wrecktangle's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 03-01-09
    Posts: 1,524
    Betpoints: 3209

    Quote Originally Posted by BigdaddyQH View Post
    Here is a twist. Last year USC held it homecoming game at night, against Oregon, the team that went on to play Auburn in the N.C. game.
    I'm sure that stung and I'd bet they won't do that again for a while.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
Top
« Previous Thread | College Football Betting | Next Thread »