[WorkHorse]

The most common mistake in the amateur bettor's game plan is that they bet for enjoyment almost as much as they bet for profit. For instance, if there is a nationally televised game on TV, the amateur bettor will throw money down on a guess just to be entertained for a few hours. The problem with this is the Book Sharps know this and spend extra time coming up with lines for games like these. A monkey has a better chance of winning than an amateur does being profitable for an entire football picks season betting like a cowboy. Do not let enjoyment get in the way of the final goal...winning and being profitable.

Are you an amateur bettor...........................

[BigdaddyQH]

Exctly, and this is the # 1 weakness of most bettors. If the game is being televised, they HAVE to have some action on it. This is why 85% of bettors are losers. #2 is homers. Homers always lose their tail in the long run. I am a USC grad, and I have a rule. I NEVER wager on USC games, one way or another. You wager with your head, not your heart, and that rule just eliminates that problem. If amateurs can just overcome those two hurdles, they would stand a much better chance at winning.

[WorkHorse]

Good advice Bigdaddy.

[chunk]

Let's face it, I think most of us slip in an action play once in a while. Just make sure that it's rare and insignificant in terms of bankroll. As far as your favorite/homer team goes, if you have a solid play on the other side.....take it.

[WorkHorse]

Know of a friend last year who won 7 of 9 games (77%)

Small problem, he lost his ass because of playing unit games.

How in hell can you lose money winning 77% of your picks.....easy...GODDAMN UNIT PLAY.

[VegasPlayer]

Rarely bet on televised games. And Mama said never, ever bet on the home team they'll break your heart. (and your bank)

[WorkHorse]

Unit play is sucker (look at me i'm cool) bullshit.

Lose one 5 unit bet and you have to win 5 one unit bets to break even.

GODDAMN LOSERS........win 5 and lose 1 and i'm a loser?? Jesus?

[BigdaddyQH]

I totally agree. Unit plays lead to losing because when you fall behind, you jusgt keep increasing the number of units you play on a game. Either the game is worth a wager or it is not. If it is worth a wager, then ot should be worth just as much as any other game you wager on. Unit plays are stirctly for losers.

[fishmonger]

Fading the public on national televised games is never a bad bet though.

[BigdaddyQH]

Here is the problem with that Fish. You and four other guys take team A for $100.00. I take team B for $1,000.00. Now the bettors has actually taken team A by a 4-1 margin, but the money has gone to team B by a 2-1 margin. So just how do you know exactly who you are fading?

Another common problem is the fact that there are many ways that the "High Rollers", "Cartels", and "Sharps" can manipulate a line. How do you know if a line has been manipulated or not? This is done occasionally to fool the general public into thinking that a line is going in one direction, when in fact, is really is not. The problem is that unless you are part of the manipulation, you do not know if a line movement is legit or not.

[fishmonger]

I get what your saying Big. Line movement can be explained so many different ways. But When I see that team A has two times more bets on them than team B. (%66/%33) split, and the line really hasn't moved. I'll take the (%33 percent) team B all day. Especially if there is a Little RLM involved. And it's not like I bet Thousands on that team. I might put $100 just to watch it.

[bornselling]

Especially if there is a Little RLM involved

[BigdaddyQH]

I get what your saying Big. Line movement can be explained so many different ways. But When I see that team A has two times more bets on them than team B. (%66/%33) split, and the line really hasn't moved. I'll take the (%33 percent) team B all day. Especially if there is a Little RLM involved. And it's not like I bet Thousands on that team. I might put $100 just to watch it.

Fish, that is one good way of looking at it. That would seem to indicate that the "meat" is on one team, and the "smart money" on the other.