[GGZOLA]

yes I know I am crazy sick with an eternity left, but here is the reality of the situations(s):
NFL aint gonna happen with these greedy crack smoking stripper obssessed ding-a-lings (and the players too)
NBA-hybernating for 2011-2012 so plenty of time for the slick willies to bang some kardashian pun-tang and grow their "plants."
NHL-
mlb-Give up already
lets hear a go of it

[blinky88]

Bol....

[bornselling]

mlb-Give up already

[Wrecktangle]

In last year's CFB contests here are some of the best handicappers in terms of win% and number of weeks they selected (15 games per week). BTW, I only tracked 9 contests that I participated in:

The Seer 59.09% - 5 wks
uanl 55.41% - 5 wks
Vegas Vixen 55.0% - 4 wks
yankeedj212 56.82% - 3 weeks
THE PROFIT 51.39% - 5 wks
texashighroller 51.39% - 8 wks
Night-Tripper 53.0% - 7 wks
Magix Bear 57.43% - 7 wks
jgbgsox 56.86% - 8 wks
goldengreek 53.38% - 9 wks

and some clown named Wrecktangle: 56.82% - 9 wks

[chunk]

15 games per week!

[GGZOLA]

currently working on a personal ats database for every single team since 1985 (or when lines were made for newer teams to division1, say Uconn) and using certain criteria and filters.
So far it looks promising and I am a pessimistic person. I know trends can change any game/season but I am building an impressive database that I will post after week one (need 1 week of games to input data). It will be a strictly trend thread, but one that has at least 10 samples (sometimes up to 30 for a team) since 1985 that qualify certain criteria ATS-wise. As I post the play, I will post the angle as well. You can bookmark, follow, or just watch dont guarantee anything but it may be profitable if I stick to it whole season, lets see.

[BigdaddyQH]

That is exactly the way I started. A word of warning. Do not go too far back using this data. I used to use a 10 year model, but that is now inaccurate. The huge number of coaching changes is one reason. There are very few Head Coaches who have been with the same team for 10 years or longer. There also has been huge changes amongst the conferences. The Big 10 and Pac 10 (now 12) each have 12 teams in them and plays rotating conference schedules. The Big 12-2 now is down to 10 teams, and plays a round robin conference schedule. TCU goes to the Big East next year. All of these changes must be taken into consideration. Colorado's Big 12 record will mean little now, because they do not play any Big 12 teams this season.

[chunk]

For what it's worth,my opinion concerning the 3 main components of handicapping ATS would rank this way in terms of importance:
1. Statistical
2. Situational
3. Fundamental(this would include trends and such)
I feel trends are ok if they support the first two, but I don't like to use it as a primary indicator. I always reserve the right to be full of crap, however, so good luck to you.

[Wrecktangle]

It is possible to get ATS data for NCAA football posted on the net back to 1978 (Repole), but as BD says the game has changed since then. I've found that the OT rules change in early 90s was the largest difference.

NCAA football is much better to handicap when compared to NFL since rules changes are minimized. I contend the the NFL ugly baby version is almost unrecognizable from the original game.

[GGZOLA]

I am going as far back as 1986 (covers.com data) also running a mock of 2010 lines wagering see what percentage I would've hit. I will be back will full season results in a few weeks. One criteria is that these plays do not begin until week 2, and very few plays early. Not based on just hot air, but line value. Hopefully I have a good news. If 2010 was good, I will go back and do a 2009, 2008, etc. see if there are consistent percentages.