1. #1
    sweetpete57@
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    Sweetpete's Week 5 Picks/write-ups

    LAST WEEK: OFFICIAL PICKS 1-3-1 (14-11-1 Season)
    BEST BETS 1-0-1 (3-0-1 Season)
    STRONG OPINIONS 3-1 (added these "save my ass" picks after WV and KSU cost me big)

    Before this week's selections, some advice to certain folks out there--

    W.V. offense: Call your own plays like in elementary school. Huddle up, draw up a play with a stick on the ground. Nothing could be any worse than the play calling of Bill Stewart and his team of 'coaches' in the Colo. game

    Tennessee Fans: Salvage something from this season. Start betting against your team. You won't even make a bowl game this year and may not win more than 1 SEC game. It's great autumn weather in Knoxville too. Don't waste your Saturdays watching football, go hike the Smoky mountains.

    Vandy Fans: Savor the moment. It may never happen again. Yes, VANDY is the best college football team in the state of Tennessee.

    Arkansas Fans: see advice given to Tennessee fans, only go boating in Hot Springs on Saturdays instead

    PAGS Followers: The guy deserves credit, but there are MANY good cappers on this site. Shop around. Maybe this week will put me back on that list.

    Selections to be added all week, Best Bet to be decided in a couple days. All Lines Legendz.com or betonline.com. All spreads given were used in bets I made.

    OHIO ST. -18 vs. Minnesota BEST BET
    With Wells returning, Ohio St. is in prime shape for a breakout week. Minnesota's 4-0 cupcake record sets up extra line value. Minn. doesn't traditionally perform well in Columbus (44-0 loss in '06) and has always played better on turf than grass. OSU may have been overrated before the seaon started, but they're a darn good football team and play an inferior opp. this week. Plus, they're 0-3 ATS so far and are due to finally beat the number. And if the BCS ratings are as screwy TY as LY, they could end up back in the championship game! OHIO ST. 45-7


    AUBURN -6 vs. Tennessee
    If Auburn has a letdown after the tough loss to LSU, then this game may be close. And by close I mean 10 points. UT has done nothing to warrant us to feel confident in their ability to stay competitive. They catch Auburn at the right time, but that's like saying Paraguay picked the right time to start a war with China. It still won't matter when the final body count comes in. AUBURN 31-10

    ALABAMA +7 @ Georgia
    Georgia may or may be not overrated, and Bama may or may not be underrated. These inquiries will sort themselves out over the course of the season. TWO THINGS are certain though in this game: 1) Georgia isn't all that effective in Athens. Three home losses the past 2 years, and a near defeat to a winless Colorado team as a 4TD FAV. 2)High profile SEC games tend to be close. 'Bama played 6 SEC games LY with spreads of 7 pts. or less, UGA played in 3. Too many points here. UGA 28-24

    TEXAS -27.5 vs. Arkansas
    This would have been my pick of the year three weeks ago, but oh yeah, that hurricane thing. The spread went up a few points but the outcome should be the same. Ark. is pathetic with QBs who have a fetish for INTs and absolutely no confidence right now. Plus, the rescheduling doesn't help, as they are probable more focussed on SEC games ahead. Texas is rolling and has it's eyes set on a 5-0 record heading into the Red River Shootout. No Mercy on the hapless Razorbacks. TEXAS 49-7


    LSU -24 vs. Miss St.
    Like Auburn, LSU could be in for an emotional letdown after last week's game. But unlike Auburn, they are now playing with realistic hopes of a National Championship. With that said, I don't see them letting up this week against a team like Miss. St. that is in complete disarray. After last years bowl season, Miss St. has taken several steps back with their offense, and have developed an allergic reaction to opponents' red zones. MSU will be lucky to score at all, which leaves LSU only in need of scoring 24-28 points. I'll take a chance that happens. LSU 31-0



    Last edited by sweetpete57@; 09-25-08 at 01:20 PM. Reason: Added picks

  2. #2
    teaserpleaser
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    did you rebound? ... I had a killer sat, sun, and monday night Im on auburn, Purdue, wisconson, still looking at a few more.

  3. #3
    Tigers1230
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    So where are the big plays?? I like the Alabama play, Georgia usually has a let down each season and most of the time it is at home. I just hope turnovers are there for alabama to take. Same thing goes for Auburn. TN should get blown out but you never know with SEC. TN always screws over either Georgia, Florida, or Auburn each year. I also don't know how banged up Auburn is from their game. It was a battle for 4 straight quarters and I don't know how they will bounce back after that tough loss.

  4. #4
    sweetpete57@
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    caught up on sat., Chicago Denver and Carolina hurt me Sunday. Who'd you have on Sunday? NFL is so much harder. Last minute covers, close games, it can be brutal. I'm liking Wisc. and Purdue too. NDame blows.

  5. #5
    teaserpleaser
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    NFL i had the over 51 in the denver/saints, raiders +9, cowboys -3 and Philly/pitts under and the over on monday night.

  6. #6
    sweetpete57@
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    I'm starting to eye Ohio St. -17.5. Wells is going to play and I'm not sold on minnesota despite their 4-0 record

  7. #7
    Dbldown11
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    hey sweetpete, I love the ohio st. pick as well. Minnesota is not a good team despite that record, and ohio st. is much better than people give them credit for. With minnesotas weak defense expect ohio st. to destroy them especially if wells plays. im on it as well. I think they win by at least 24

  8. #8
    sweetpete57@
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dbldown11 View Post
    hey sweetpete, I love the ohio st. pick as well. Minnesota is not a good team despite that record, and ohio st. is much better than people give them credit for. With minnesotas weak defense expect ohio st. to destroy them especially if wells plays. im on it as well. I think they win by at least 24
    I agree-- 24+ pt. win. I just made it an official pick and may make it my Best Bet. I'm parlaying the crap out of it and may do a risky 6-1 odds 6pt. pleaser at -24 with Texas -33.5

  9. #9
    pags11
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    not against you or with you on any of these...GL this week sweetpete...

  10. #10
    sweetpete57@
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    pags--- thanks, GL to you too. This is kind of a dead week. I'm intrigued by your Okla. St. pick. That seems to be popular and I wonder if there is some info about this game I don't know about. Troy beat 'em last year, so I guess there's the revenge factor, but that seems like a lot of points.

  11. #11
    pags11
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    pete,

    thanks for wishing me luck, I could use it right now for sure...yeah, that game has a lot of interesting angles that I'll touch on tomorrow night in my write-up...I do think it's a pretty strong play though...

  12. #12
    sweetpete57@
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    I'm starting to lean towards Okla. St. I think Troy may be ready to move on to focusing on conference Sun Belt games and may not care too much about this one. That probably opens the door for OSU and the revenge factor. I'll probably make a small play on OKSt.

  13. #13
    sweetpete57@
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    My condolences to Brady2Moss who lost his entire bankroll on the USC ML last night. You just never know in college football.

  14. #14
    sweetpete57@
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    Adding a few "strong opinion" games for Saturday. I'm headed to Vegas Saturday morning and am going to need a good week because I'll probably double up all my internet bets down there. Anyway, here are a few to chew on...

    Colorado +5.5 @ Flor. St.---FSU shouldn't be favored by this much vs. anybody. Plus, being in Jax may lessen the home adv. a bit. COLO 21-17

    CLEMSON -10 (-117 Legendz) vs. Maryland---Still waiting for the breakout game for Clemson. Not sold on Maryland, I think Clemson rolls CLEMSON 38-14

    S. FLORIDA -8.5 @ NC St.---No Russell Wilson. No Nathaniel Irving. No chance for NC St. USF 31-6

    W. MICHIGAN -4 @ Temple---Temple will never recover from the last second loss to Buffalo. Plus, they may have to go to a backup QB TW. W. Michigan is stronger on both sides of the ball. W. MICH. 38-23

    Good Luck this week guys. Vegas here I come!

  15. #15
    WestsidePete
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    I realy like Auburn this weekend....Tenn is horrible, add in that Auburn is at home, solid defense and they played LSU to the wire have to think they can win by 7 or more....Liking the Ohio St game now as well, I plan on adding them to my card..GL this weekend

  16. #16
    Jcoz
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    Quote Originally Posted by sweetpete57@ View Post
    I'm starting to lean towards Okla. St. I think Troy may be ready to move on to focusing on conference Sun Belt games and may not care too much about this one. That probably opens the door for OSU and the revenge factor. I'll probably make a small play on OKSt.
    Nice picks! I like every one except the Auburn pick...just not sold on thier Offense to cover SEC games...but I wont pick against them this week either.

    Ohio State should roll this week.

    Any thoughts on the whisky game? I started a thread on it, but I ust don't get that line...its so "easy" that's its giving me the heebie-jeebies....

  17. #17
    pags11
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    good to hear you are on board with Oklahoma St. now, and also Colorado...sorry to hear we are against eachother in the Maryland vs. Clemson game...

  18. #18
    sweetpete57@
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    Jcoz-- Ohio St. pick looks to good to be true, but I'm in for a nice chunk of money. I don't trust Wiscy against the spread on the road, despite the fact that Michigan blows. I do however have them in a ML parlay with Auburn and S. Florida, that pays like 200 for a 140 bet, or something close to that.

    Pags---Maryland seems like a solid cover after the impressive win over Cal. But, I don't think Cal even showed up for that one diminishing the quality of win. I'm banking that Clemson is as good as the 'experts' picked them to be pre-season, and that they finally roll this week vs. Maryland. Colorado is a solid pick and will probably win SU. I don't see how FSU can have any confidence right now.

  19. #19
    sweetpete57@
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    Quote Originally Posted by WestsidePete View Post
    I realy like Auburn this weekend....Tenn is horrible, add in that Auburn is at home, solid defense and they played LSU to the wire have to think they can win by 7 or more....Liking the Ohio St game now as well, I plan on adding them to my card..GL this weekend

    Both these games seem to good to be true. Then again, so did Fresno St. +4 @ Rutgers and that cashed in nicely. Tennesee is only such a small dog b/c it's "Tennessee" Minnesota isn't that bad, but they catch Ohio St. at the wrong time. They are SO do for a breakout game. GL this week!

    Get ready Leroy's Race and Sportsbook at the Riveria! I'll be there in 11 hours to take you for everything (or hopefully at least a few hundred dollars)

  20. #20
    bosterosoy
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    With in all the picks, BOL.

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