[regularguy]

Thought this one might be worth pointing out. I see the line is now at -4, but I think it's still a good bet.

So far this season, it has not jinxed me to post my thoughts on here. So...

Nevada is coming off a two week rest, after a brutal two weeks playing against higher level competition. After a 49-13 win over FCS Grambling State in week one, Nevada got beat by Texas Tech at home, then smashed by Missouri on the road.

Nevada stayed with Texas Tech for a while, but in the third quarter fell off the pace. Then, the next week, they got hammered at Missouri, 69-17. Chase Daniel threw for 405 yards to set the school career passing record and Missouri scored on their first 10 possessions. That's hard on the confidence. What I mean is its hard to feel like a stud after that. I don't think two months would be enough rest after that, much less two weeks.

Nevada has some key injuries too. Nevada is down to their third string running back. Vai Taua. He's not bad, and it's impressive that Nevada has him after two down, but still ... third string. He's no Luke Lippincott.

Everyone has heard the UNLV story. Wins over ASU and Iowa State. At 3-1, they have surprassed their total wins (2) in each of the last four seasons. Spirits are high. UNLV's QB, Omar Clayton, got a ride on teammates' shoulders after the win over the Cyclones. “I think if people before the season would have said that we would be 3-1, I think they probably would have thought you were nuts. But there is a great thing about this team right now (and how) they care about each other, they love each other, they believe in each other, and they expect to win.” — UNLV head coach Mike Sanford.

I might be worried about letdown after these two historic wins by UNLV, but this is an important rivalry game. The annual battle for the Fremont Cannon. Nevada has won the last three in a row; before that UNLV had won the previous five. I know some have the feeling that rivalry games are too unpredictable, but in this situation, I think the rivalry will give UNLV something to care about this week. I'd be worried if it was the University of Idaho coming to UNLV, but not Nevada. I say UNLV will be up for this game.

By the way, the Wolf Pack’s pass defense ranks 119th nationally, allowing 347.0 yards per game. I think UNLV will score on them. I'm thinking the Nevada/Missouri film will prove to be a fertile source of bright ideas for UNLV.

Nevada does have some offensive weapons, even with their trouble at tailback. Colin Kaepernick at QB. Some pretty good receiving (Marko Mitchell). An adequate offensive line. A dang good kicker too. But I don't think they will stay with UNLV. UNLV will gut out some stops, in this rivalry game in front of the home crowd.

Oh. Yea. I know. Coaching-Hall-of-Fame-Coach-Chris-Ault. You hear that every time Nevada is mentioned it seems. Suffice it to say, that jazz would mean more to me if his team won a little more.

UNLV by 15.