Maybe the SEC isn't quite as deep as we thought. Tennessee head coach Phillip Fulmer saw his Vols fall easily to the Gators, 30-6. But a 4-0 Vanderbilt squad is doing their part to pick up the slack.
We’ve already played one month of college football. That’s still only three or four games of data to look at for each team, but it’s enough to confirm our suspicions about certain teams. For example, as we figured last week, the Tennessee Volunteers aren’t all that. And the Arkansas Razorbacks are even worse.
The Florida Gators went into their matchup with Tennessee as the No. 4 team in the nation, and as 7-point favorites against the Vols. Special teams were the story of the day; Brandon James ran a punt return 78 yards for a touchdown after taking the opening kickoff 57 yards into Tennessee territory. The Gators were up 17-0 before the Volunteers could blink. Final score: Florida 30, Tennessee 6. The Vols are now 1-2 SU, 0-3 ATS and on the verge of a total meltdown in the SEC. Florida is 3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS.
Arkansas (2-1 SU, 0-2 ATS) gets a little more sympathy after losing 49-14 to No. 13 Alabama as 8-point puppies. The Razorbacks are in their first year of the Bobby Petrino regime and are trying to rebuild their backfield, but their problems on defense are even worse. Their Oct. 4 matchup at home against Florida doesn’t look too promising all of a sudden.
It wasn’t all fun and games for the favorites. They squeaked out a very small profit at 24-21 ATS, the same record posted by the home teams in Week 4. Combine the two, and you get the best play of the week with the home faves at 16-13, or 55.2 percent. The under was a slight moneymaker at 24-21; on the season, the total is dead even at 85-85, while away faves are the only profitable split at 29-25-1 ATS (53.7 percent).
The Top 25 teams messed everything up for the chalkeaters by going 5-7 ATS (12-3 SU) against unranked opponents. No. 22 West Virginia got things started on Thursday by losing 17-14 to Colorado (+2½ road dogs) in overtime. No. 17 East Carolina’s Cinderella run might be over after dropping a 30-24 overtime decision at North Carolina (+7). And No. 12 Oregon came up dry against Boise State (+10), losing 37-32 despite a furious 19-point fourth quarter.
The Ducks are in the best shape of those three upset victims; they lost with fifth-string QB Darron Thomas at the helm after Jeremiah Masoli left the game with a mild concussion and Chris Harper was ineffective. Thomas threw three TD passes in the fourth; he might start this Saturday at Washington State, but the Ducks have yet to determine the status of Masoli or injured would-be starter Justin Roper. Coach Mike Bellotti described Roper as “50-50” on Sunday.
Last and creeping closer to least, the flagging Big Ten Conference went 3-5 ATS (6-2 SU) in Week 4 to continue their fall from grace. Indiana suffered the worst, bowing 42-20 to Ball State (+2) as the MAC beat up their major-conference counterparts 3-1 ATS. The Big East got their lumps in, too, as Pitt downed Iowa (+2) 21-20 to take the Hawkeyes down a peg. Northwestern, Purdue and Ohio State all failed to cash in.
The No. 14 Buckeyes have started the 2008 campaign off at 0-3 ATS, with all three games going under as the OSU offense fails to keep up with the team’s tremendous defense. Ohio State doesn’t face any more non-con opponents until bowl season, but handicappers are circling that Oct. 25 date at home versus No. 12 Penn State – the only unblemished Big Ten team at 4-0 SU and 3-0 ATS.
Got to like what Vandy is doing so far. You know they're going to come down to earth at some point, but hard to root against Johnson and the 'Dores right now.
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