LAST WEEK

Best Bets (1-1)(-0.30 units)
Strong Plays (0-2)(-4.40 units)
Regular Plays (3-1)(+1.90 units)

Overall (4-4)(-2.80 units)





FOR THE SEASON

Best Bets (2-2)(-0.60 units)
Strong Plays (4-2)(+3.60 units)
Regular Plays (9-8)(+0.20 units)

Overall (15-12)(+3.20 units)






COLLEGE FOOTBALL WEEK FOUR


I will admit that one of the factors that I use in college football the first four weeks is returning starters. I know there are people who believe in that, and others that think it is a waste of time. This is the final week that I even considered who is returning from last year. After one months, teams know who they have, who is good and who is not and it becomes less than a factor. Just wanted to throw that in there and explain some of my thought processes.


I took a pass on that Kansas St/Louisville game last night. I first liked Louisville, then changed to Rutgers and decided to lay off the game. Good thing. Like I said, sometimes you need luck on your side as well.



Thursday, September 18th

W Virginia -3 vs Colorado (regular play)………………Sort of forcing this, but it is only a one unit play for me. It is Thursday night, I am off work today and Friday, so I have to have a little something on it. WVU was one of my teams I picked at the start of the season to run the table and play in the national championship game….maybe. E Carolina destroyed theory earlier this year. I think because of that, we are getting some value with this line being only three points. Colorado has improved and they are at home and it will not be easy, but I think the better overall talent wins this game in the end. Should be a tight one. Lets call it WVU 30-23.


Friday, September 19th

Baylor +12 vs Connecticut (regular play)………….Again we got that one game on a weekday night that draws me in, but these area almost always one unit plays for me. I won with Baylor last week, but I got destroyed with Connecticut last week. There is just something I don’t trust about U Conn as a favorite. Baylor plays has way decent defense and they can move the ball. The only thing that scares me about this game is it is not at Baylor, so the potential for a blowout is there. I will take my chances.


Saturday, September 20th

Mississippi St +8 vs Georgia Tech (best bet)……………….Miss St knows how to play defense, that is for sure. Georgia Tech is a very conservative team who does not throw much and loves to run the football. That plays right into the hands of Miss St. This will, or at least should be a low scoring game where eight points is huge. Throw is the fact we are getting a team from a better conference getting more than a touchdown against an over-rated ACC conference. Tech has always been dangerous as a dog, but scary as a favorite. Miss State has a realistic chance of even winning this game outright. I won’t get greedy and play the moneyline though. A cover is just with me.


Navy +6 vs Rutgers (best bet)……………..This might be all sucker bet of the week. Rutgers is horrible, they really suck. I know they are probably not as bad as they looked against N Carolina last week, but I cannot see them improving that much. Rutgers cannot stop the run and that is the only thing Navy knows how to do. This is a very live home dog. It almost looks too easy. Navy does not set the world on fire on defense either, so the only hope for Rutgers is to go crazy on offense this week and score at least 40-50 points, and that will not happen with what I have seen from them so far. Their QB looks after losing their start running back last year. If this is a sucker bet, then call me a sucker…won’t be the first time.


Virginia Tech +3 vs N Carolina (strong play)……………They say that you are never as good, or as bad as your last game and I believe that. N Carolina’s pounding of Rutgers was because Rutgers is having all kinds of problems and not because the Tarheels are some powerhouse all of a sudden . This is not basketball afterall. I think that is the only reason Va Tech is getting points in this game. Even though they are having a down year and it is obvious they are not as good as in years past, they are still the better team here. Game won’t be a blowout since it is at N Carolina, but Tech has enough talent to win this game outright, so getting three is very generous in my eyes.


Rice +30 vs Texas (strong play)……………….No doubt this is a game that Rice should be able to name the score, but how does a great team like Texas get up for this game? There is no way Texas will come out with the same intensity that they would against better competition. All I know is that Rice has no defense but they have an explosive offense and I will gladly take that explosive offense and 30 gigantic points. If Texas covers this game it will be something like Texas 70-34. I don’t see it. I think Rice can score enough and keep the ball away from Texas who may score on most possessions and get the cover. We will see.



Air Force +8 vs Utah (strong play)……………….I really thought Air Force was going to suck this year, but the have come out of the gate with a 3-0 record and I find myself attracted to playing them all the time now. Utah is surely the better team, but anytime you go on the road in college football it is a battle unless you are playing a team that is just plain horrible. Going with a gut feeling again.


Iowa +1 vs Pittsburgh (regular play)…………..At the beginning of the season before any games started and I saw this line, I would have been all over Pitt as a best bet. But seeing how coach Dave has mangled this team again, my hopes as a Pitt fan are done. This is my anti-Dave play of the week. At home Pitt is the better team and should win this game, but they also have the worst coach on the planet that keeps them from moving to the next level. If Pitt struggled at home vs two MAC teams, what are they going to do against a Big-10 team, even though I think the Big-10 is not as good as people think either. My anti-Dave pick of the week. We should start an anti-Dave thread of the week club, but I am sure somebody out there has already done that.

Boise St +10.5 vs Oregon (regular play)…………………..Boise is almost unbeatable at home, but on the road it is a different story, but I still like them this week. Big factor for me is Oregon’s QB being out for this game. Boise has always been one of those teams who you don’t want to play. They are sort of a no name who is capable when they put it all together and can beat you. I like their offense getting ten vs a team without their QB. Big question in my mind is how many will Oregon score. They are stil the more talented team, but my but tells me grab the points in a game something like Oregon 34-27.



San Jose St +9 vs Stanford (regular play)………….Not in love with this one, but something tells me to take the points. I don’t think Stanford is a very good team this year and they are in for a long season. These two have a history of playing each other and every now and then San Jose St gives them a battle. This is probably the year where they are more evenly matched than every before. This game should be decided by single digits. As some of you know, I go by gut feelings a lot when capping football games. I am not a huge fan of stats or trends.

Penn State -28 vs Temple (regular play)………………For starters I am a Pitt fan and that automatically makes me hate Penn State. With that being said, I think PSU is the best team in the Big-10 this year. Ohio State is apparently not as good after seeing them last week or was it just USC is that great. Probably a combination of both. Like I said last week, even though I lost as Temple covered….Temple is Temple and they will always be Temple in football. The Nittany Lions can name this score.



There you go, locked and loaded. Happy with my start so far. Anytime I have not had to pay the book I am happy. Should be a good week, I like my plays, of course I always do, that is why I take them.

Good Luck Everybody!!