[flounder]

LSU -2 seems to be very generous!!! Please tell me why I shouldn't hammer LSU for half my roll. Auburn has had lots of trouble moving the ball, scoring pts. LSU has a tough, fast, sec D. I see LSU winning by 17 or more. Thoughts plesae?

[teaserpleaser]

is that really the line? LSU should kill them but you know the SEC it will be tight but -2 isnt alot to cover.

[flounder]

Thats what it says at 5dimes.

[ZBOIZ]

Coming from a LSU fan I would'nt touch this line!!!

[JRS21386]

Auburn has an awesome Defense...

[JRS21386]

Whats the OU cause that might be worth taking the Under

[ZBOIZ]

Whats the OU cause that might be worth taking the Under

The total is not out but if it's anything in the 40's I'll be slamming the under!

[flounder]

under 40 something would be nice.

[JRS21386]

The total is not out but if it's anything in the 40's I'll be slamming the under!

Yeah thats what i was thinkin... 2 really good Defenses goin at it..

[TPowell]

no way the total is in the 40's I dont think, if so its hammer time lol

[ZBOIZ]

no way the total is in the 40's I dont think, if so its hammer time lol

yep! But LSU will try to win this game on the ground and with short passing routes. This game is a tough one to call. But for the people that like trends( LSU has'nt won in Auburn I want to say in like 8 years!)

[LT Profits]

Aiburn defense is just as good as LSU's, but the Auburn offense is still a work-in-progress. If this game was later in the year, I would give Auburn an excellent chance at home. As it is, with Auburn still struggling with their new spread offense, I give the slight edge to LSU. Final score LSU 6, Auburn 2.

[thegeeksheet]

If you are to back LSU, things I’d be worried about
• LSU starting inexperienced QB in 1st conf game, 1st conf road game, at night, in a very loud stadium.
• LSU has played no one this year, and hasn’t had to rely on their QB to make any plays
• LSU even vs horrible competition is only completing 55% of their pass atts while averaging over 7 ypr which tells me they haven’t been able to get it on track in the air, and have just run over sub-par competition.
• Auburn vs at least 2 very good rushing offenses is allowing 1.8 ypr (tied for 5th in the nation).
• Auburn hasn’t produced a lot of pts, but they’ve actually been fairly decent from total offense production (Averaging 367 ypg):
• Auburn has had 8 turnovers in the last 2 games and 3 missed FGs inside the 30 thus far this year. Some might point to a trend others will see that as an aberration that will even out over time
o AU fumbled twice inside the 10 vs Southern Miss, they get TDs and that game is 41-0 at half
o AU was twice inside the 15 vs Miss St and came away with nothing, they get points there and it is probably a different game. Their HC in the press conference said if they could have got a lead of 7 pts + he would have let the OC open the offense up some, but because of how good their D was playing he kept it conservative because of field position and some other things
• While the Auburn play calling has been suspect, the QB isn’t turning the ball over which killed them last year (although their RBs aren’t doing them any favors)
o As a complete aside, but still interesting Auburn had more yards, yppl, ypr, and ypa vs Miss St than UGA did vs South Carolina (14-2 wouldn’t have been any prettier but they would have squeeked out a cover). Miss St and So Car are also (statistically) very similar on defense (3.6 – 3.8 yppl and 204 – 244 ypg).
• I think the wind had a lot to do with the Miss St - Auburn game Saturday night (consistent 15-25 mph winds) – see below about Croom’s game plan, basically took away 7 yrs under, which only left mid-deep to deep throws which is very difficult in 20 mph winds.
• The LSU - AU game is always very close, and I think (not sure of the exact streak) the home team has won the last 7 or 8 games.
o Last 4 years game has been decided by 1 TD or less and gone down to the final minute (the last two times at Auburn the combined total has been under 20)

Things that concern me if you were to back Auburn
• They have been horrible at converting yards to points particularly in the redzone
• Lester & Tate have been the ones coughing the ball up
• Miss St had a pretty good game plan that basically stacked the box taking away the run and played a lot of man under zone basically taking away the short / intermediate routes. That leaves the only option to go up top a lot.
• No real way to know what LSU has on offense and how their QB will react to 1st SEC road game and at night…Sorry to North Texas and App state fans, but they’ve played 2 scrimmages (see UGA last week vs top 10 South Carolina defense for how that can manifest itself in 1st tough road test). Their QB will probably struggle, but might not.
• LSU’s defense is no slouch either, and I don’t think anyone really knows what Auburn has on offense yet (considering all the above). They could all be correctable issues (fumbles & 14 penalties last week, etc), random events (weather last week), or could just be masking a larger issues…which is
• I think the biggest thing holding this offense back is you have a defensive minded coach (Tubberville) who is basically half embracing a radical shift in offensive philosophy. Consider that Franklin at Troy last year ran a 45/55 run/pass offense, where he’s been on record saying he looked to pass 1st and used a mobile QB to keep the defense honest. This year they are running a 60/40 run/pass ratio with an immobile QB (presuming Todd continues to get most of the work). That is starting to rear its ugly head particularly in the red zone (where they have been horrible). I have no idea when, how, or if that gets corrected.

My guess is this game will be a defensive war, both coaches are very aware of their strengths (defense and running game) and weaknesses (qb). They are also pretty seasoned big game coaches that know how to get a game to the 4th quarter without taking yourself out of the game. I am not sure how you back Auburn in this game, but I am also not so sure from what I’ve seen out of LSU’s offense that they have demonstrated they are capable of dismantling what is probably one of the best defenses in the county in their backyard at night.

Also in the for what its worth category, I ran my initial analysis this morning (basically a summary of technical simulations) and Auburn won SU about 55% of the time with an average score of 22-20 (both teams had right at 350 yards offense and 2 TOs)…

I’ll be staying far away from this game, as I am not a huge fan of 4th quarter sweat outs, particularly that late in the day after 10 hours of game day libations!

[teaserpleaser]

home team has won i think 8 straight in this one(This year that would be auburn) with that out there Im taking LSU and yes more than likely its going to be last min FG by LSU. I wouldnt bet big on this game though.

[Tigers1230]

total will be around 35

[EaglesPhan36]

Never bet half your roll on anything.

[TPowell]

If the total is in the 30's then I'll be hammering the under and I'm probably going to take Auburn on the ML as well. Both teams LOVE to run the ball but neither will be able to, because both of these teams have flat out GREAT run defenses. Might even just play the under

[jjgold]

Under

Both medicoire teams this year

[Doc JS]

LSU -2 seems to be very generous!!! Please tell me why I shouldn't hammer LSU for half my roll. Auburn has had lots of trouble moving the ball, scoring pts. LSU has a tough, fast, sec D. I see LSU winning by 17 or more. Thoughts plesae?

As others have said, because it's the SEC and it's hard as hell to win on the road in the SEC.

LT was all over it. Not much to choose from in the two defenses. Auburn's offense still has a ways to go (I'm being kind here). LSU hasn't played anyone with a defense like Auburn's.

Don't have much of a lean on the side. Really waiting to see a total. The under may be the play here...

Doc

[Panic]

People said the same thing about Georgia -7 last week against S. Carolina.

As people have already stated, its the SEC. Look at Florida only giving up -7.5 against an unranked Tennessee.

[sweetpete57@]

1st Half Under! I think it'll be like 7-3 at the half

[MonkeyF0cker]

I actually like LSU to cover in this one. I think Auburn is one of the most overrated teams in the nation right now. Yes, Auburn's defense is decent but their offense is anemic at best. Against MSU, they put up similar numbers to Louisiana Tech's game against the Bulldogs. That's just simply not enough. Auburn will be facing a defense just as staunchy on Saturday in LSU. As long as LSU takes care of the ball, I don't see a reason why they don't win by at least a touchdown.

[flounder]

Nice info fellas, thanks, think I will put a small bet on LSU/Under, whatever that may be.

[ZBOIZ]

Guys I'm a huge LSU fan!!! A big fan!! A huge Fan!! I'm here to tell you that any true LSU fan will tell you that this spread is so perfect that I don't think know one can touch this. It's strictly a toss up game. LSU has just as good a defense as USC but there QB situation can be questionable on the road against a SEC opponent who also has a great defense. GUYS BE CAREFUL BETTING THIS GAME!! PLAY IT SMALL ON WHOEVER YOU BET!

[JRS21386]

He's actually giving advice against LSU this time... I personally like LSU to cover...

[ZBOIZ]

He's actually giving advice against LSU this time... I personally like LSU to cover...

I keep it real with my team. There very talented but I would'nt touch this game.

[MonkeyF0cker]

Guys I'm a huge LSU fan!!! A big fan!! A huge Fan!! I'm here to tell you that any true LSU fan will tell you that this spread is so perfect that I don't think know one can touch this. It's strictly a toss up game. LSU has just as good a defense as USC but there QB situation can be questionable on the road against a SEC opponent who also has a great defense. GUYS BE CAREFUL BETTING THIS GAME!! PLAY IT SMALL ON WHOEVER YOU BET!

Even if LSU turns the ball over, Auburn will still struggle to punch it in.

[Stretch]

I can't trust the Auburn offense enough to put money on them. So, If I was to bet on who wins, I would go with LSU and possibly include the under. However, I'm probably just going with the under.

[$$POOLCRAZY$$$$]

Over is a lock!! lay it in!! half ur roll bro!!

[gm2022]

LSU -2

[Red Man Spit]

Total of 38 @ 5Dimes.

[TPowell]

POUNDING the under like a teen virgin on whoever the new it girl is lol

[HOMAR]

Lsu -1 Under 19 First Half....5dimes..4 Units Parlay

[Beat up the book]

Both have killer D. but i think LSU grinds out the win and covers no problem.
GL. all