[Redwing41]

I been thinking in blackjack most regular gamblers do not leave when they are up to a certain limit, they play with no plan. If you were to calculate the amount that is most likely for you to achieve you can walk out without second guessing. Most times you are at least 15 percent in profits, somewhere during the sitting.

What happens when you sit down at a table and you play till you win some where around 15 percent (or whatever reference you set) of your bankroll that is large (200 units) and leave the table. When you are losing you play until you are down 10 units of your bankroll and leave the table. With all the swings you should be able to hit 15 units rather regularly and if your base line starts to drop you call it a day -10 units. A few of the games you may need to accept a -20 percent loss and cash out when you hit a run where you are down 30 percent or more, you play until you hit 20 percent loss and after X amount of bets you stop. You will need to build back your profits every time this happens but the majority of the time you will be winning.

You would need to be able to measure baseline, or expect value for how many cycles/bets until you are expected to average -10 units and then stop there.

Counting black jacks and the regular streaks that come with playing you can come out +EV over a long period of time. You only need to be able to accept that you may lose more times than you like and come out under 10 percent some days, but long run you will win.

I think in blackjack you have slightly better chance at reaching 10 or 15 percent bankroll because of the BJ payout.

Does any one have recommendations as to what formulas might help calculate this. How many units is my bank roll going to be and what amount of units before I need to leave the table.