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I hate to be such a square but....... This looks like the time to parlay these 4 favs. Which fight has the biggest chance to be an upset?Originally Posted by THE_LOCKSMITH
No time for rest after that fight night card, get to cappin'. This MMA game is year round
Crusher for sure.
PRELIMINARY CARD
- Robert Peralta vs. Hiroyuki Takaya*
- Saad Awad vs. Joe Duarte*
- Casey Ryan vs. Paul Song*
- Edgar Cardenas vs. Rolando Perez*
Maybe. I do respect those japanese fighters. I think they are very tough. He prolly has the best chance, but I dunno. I'm not betting on it.
Do you remember gilbert melendes vs aoki ? My conclusion after that fight is that people with good wrestling in cage or octagon have a fair chance to win, because in that fight, aoki looked horrible. It was simply to much space to cover for him. I do not like aoki in cage, and this fight is in a cage. If i was suppose to bet, i would bet aoki sub hedged with beerbohm, but i cant find props. Paddy power do not have props for strikeforce so i am out.
Yea i really like Melendez, as for upset Kyle looked good in the 1st round over BigFoot, he can really use his size over Mousasi, maybe grind out 2 of 3 rounds
The first fight was close. If anything the ropes seemed to help Melendez more than Kawajiri in that fight. Look at the early takedown attempts by Kawajiri.
Melendez was rocked several times in the first few minutes. Melendez did a much better job of maintaining position than Kawajiri.
What has changed since then:
1)Gilbert's boxing has improved, especially his footwork and defense.
2)Kawajiri is going straight to his wrestling now rather than engaging in slugfests.
3)Kawajiri's cardio seems improved.
I don't think comparing the Aoki fight is very useful as Aoki and Kawajiri are very different fighters. Melendez didn't allow Aoki to get a hold of him. Melendez will not be able to stop Kawajiri in the same way.
Gilbert should definitely be the favorite, but not this much. In a 3-rounder I would be making a large play on Crusher, In a 5-rounder I'm only playing 1 unit.
I cant bring myself to bet on a japanese fighter in their US debut. Nevermind after a tsunami hit Japan. Can't see that helping. Im shocked their still fighting.
only question really is how good daley's takedown defense is. he looked like crap against koscheck. not sure how diaz compares.
Kyle has pulled out with broken hand...imagine Ovince St Preux will be their first point of call!
Don't get me excited. If he comes in at +300 I'm all over it.
I jumped on Melendez at -185. If it wasn't for the layoff, I would have bet my house on him. Kawajiri has slowed down too much, and Melendez is 28 and looks better and better in every fight. Melendez will have the speed and wrestling advantage imo. Melendez won't slow down. Going to be a difficult fight for Kawajiri. Big fan of both, though.
I got Nick at -200. imo Daley has one way of winning, by a clean standing KO. With Nick's chin and recovery ability, even if Daley knocks Nick down, it would be suicidal to follow him to the ground to try to finish. On the ground, hurt or not, Nick makes Daley look like a little child if it goes there.
Daley will have to restrict his kicks and/or knees in order to prevent the takedown, this will leave him with his left hook. Too one-dimensional. Too easy to gameplan against. And Daley didn't impress me against Masvidal, he showed weaknesses in that fight that Nick will be able to exploit (Nick's jab will keep Daley off-balance). The first few rounds may be close, but Nick will wear him down.
To beat a well-rounded champion like Nick, it will take more than a one-trick pony. Sure, small gloves give anyone a chance, but at -200 I will take Nick.
just sold my tickets to this event, happy as hell to just get my money back!
If OSP is anything around +250, I'll put some down.
Strikeforce officials today announced that Keith Jardine, a 13-time UFC veteran, has agreed to step in on just one-week's notice and face Gegard Mousasi at "Strikeforce: Diaz vs. Daley."
The slot becomes available when Mike Kyle broke his right hand in training and was forced to withdraw from the contest.
this means Mousasi -500
I'm thinking more like -1000.
-1000 you think so? Jardine has fought some tough dudes. So has Mousasi but if he is still with Jackson's team, I'd lay a couple units at +1000 for Jardine.
Kawajiri has done zero preparation for fighting in a cage.
http://www.sherdog.com/news/news/Kaw...tle-Bout-31270
-1000 will only get you back 6 or 700. not 1000.
Granted. I still would NOT lay 1000 to win 100. That's a terrible play, one fluke ruins your whole bankroll. Let's just say +600, I think Jardine wins this more than 14.29% of the time. I still think Mousasi will win. But I haven't seen a fight I thought was that slanted since Couture-Toney.
Another note I saw Kyle at +275. Do you really think Kyle is that much better than Jardine? The more I type, the less I understand why I'm even making this point. The truth needs no defense.
I think it's definitely a tougher fight for mousassi now
yea at the top of the page
lol
agree dogs is the only way to win long term
Mousasi shouldn't open at -1000.... if anything I'd say around -600.
Jardine will not hold any value to me unless he is at +500 or so though (doubtful). I see him getting cracked and dropped early.
I don't see how Kawajiri has slowed down in his recent fights, where do you get that from. And how exactly are you judging the wrestling aspect here? Why do you think Melendez has the wrestling advantage.
Last edited by Chairib; 04-04-11 at 05:27 PM.
So C.Gracie says he's 100 percent certain Diaz will knock Daley out....posturing, or just bold?
guy doesn't lie, diaz will dominate
When was the last time Diaz KO'd someone?
ufc robbie lawler, nice knockout
Exactly, seven years ago at UFC 47. His striking style isn't about KO's, it's more about throwing punches in bunches. He uses that pawing jab of his partially for judging distance and range but also to hide his right hand.
If we're talking TKO's as well (Gracie could have very well meant "stopping with strikes" in general), Diaz last stopped Zaromskis in the beginning of 2010, with 6 other (T)KO's between then and Lawler.
Not saying he can stop Daley with his hands though...
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