[rocky mattioli]

i was looking at this....hoping that reinhardt was competitive...

he`s 20-1(loss was a sub vs lauzon)...with around 16 subs hinself...

i remembered quan gassing ridiculously early vs the great danny downes(lol)..and i was hoping reinhardt might be competitive...

but after looking at his ledger,i see he hasn`t had a fight in 2 years....and the guys he fought have ridiculously bad records or are totally inexperienced....


quan gassed so badly vs downes it was almost funny....in all his other fights(wins),he finished in the 1st round.....

i was hoping i had found a live dog,but,it looks like a set-up for zhang,the bigger guy(this will be at 145).....

anybody have any info to add?.....appreciate any opinions...

[omalley21]

I have nothing new to add, but I think reinhardt is being brought in to lose. But a few good cappers on here are on him.

[rocky mattioli]

I have nothing new to add, but I think reinhardt is being brought in to lose. But a few good cappers on here are on him.

looks like a set-up...check reinhardt`s opponents...amazing....

i just can`t get zhang gassing ridiculously in the early second vs downes...

i wish there were props for this....i`d take quan via sub in the first hedged with a flyer on reinhardt at +235....

alas,no prelim props...

btw...reinhardt is 41 yrs old...

[MMAdisciple]

Hmm trust a 40 year old who hasn't fought in years and who mostly fought absolute bums...pass.

[jacktheknife]

I'll reiterate my drift here.

Anybody wondering why Zhang is more the 2.5 to one when Reinhart is more experienced, has been training with Wand fight team and Spencer Fisher, is generally built like a brick kybo and there's no evidence that Zhang's can conquests were any more skilled then his?

[rocky mattioli]

I'll reiterate my drift here.

zhang is closer to a natural 155 pounder...reinhardt 135....

but......i can`t get out of my head the fact that zhang was pretty much done early in rd 2...he won the first round...but,he was through after that....his stamina beat him....

reminiscent of camozzi`s win over dongi yang,,,yang collapsed late...and sexiyama`s cardio issues?....

what`s up with the asian cardio?...

[kiefynugs]

looks like a standard loser out prelim. zhang hasn't looked spectacular but we haven't seen much of him. I understand him being the favorite for sure but I've got Reinhardt at 1u for +200.

[terpkeg]

Maybe a closer flight and traveling over less time zones will help his cardio.

[jin2daj]

yeah theyre really trying to find themselves a chinese fighter to market to asia. the only problem is that american wrestling dominates the sport right now. europeans, asians, and south americans all lack the wrestling to deal with american fighters.

[sirchadwick1]

Made a small play on Reinhardt at +235. Not really confident in him, but Quan has never impressed me and I don't think he should be that big of a favorite. Both guys have beaten a good number of cans.

[The HOFF]

yeah theyre really trying to find themselves a chinese fighter to market to asia. the only problem is that american wrestling dominates the sport right now. europeans, asians, and south americans all lack the wrestling to deal with american fighters.

Wrestling is the reason I am liking Reinhardt. If he can take Zhang down, then Zhang's cardio should come into play with someone on top of him for a round or two.

[PunisherIND]

long-time lurker here, finally decided to register.

bodog has a line for "Tiequan Zhang vs Jason Reinhardt completes 1 full round" at +200. seems like there's some value here. i realize that both fighters have rarely been outside of the first round. however, i believe when fighters get to the big stage, against better competition, they are more likely to be challenged and therefore there's a good chance this fight gets to the 2nd round.

anyone agree/disagree?

[Vaughany]

long-time lurker here, finally decided to register.

bodog has a line for "Tiequan Zhang vs Jason Reinhardt completes 1 full round" at +200. seems like there's some value here. i realize that both fighters have rarely been outside of the first round. however, i believe when fighters get to the big stage, against better competition, they are more likely to be challenged and therefore there's a good chance this fight gets to the 2nd round.

anyone agree/disagree?

Wow that's great value and welcome to the forum , I didnt even know Bodog did props. Have they got the over 2.5 or distance prop for tht fight?

[omalley21]

Wow that's great value and welcome to the forum , I didnt even know Bodog did props. Have they got the over 2.5 or distance prop for tht fight?

I agree its great value. Thats the only prop they have on that fight. They do props but not nearly as many as 5dimes/sportbet. They never have fight will go the distance props. It is usually over unders 2.5 rounds but only have props for main card fights.

I have question for you vaughany. Ill use fedor silva as my example. Bodog had bigfoot at +325, but they also had bigfoot inside the distance +700 and bigfoot by decision at +1100. So it wouldve made sense to just bet both of the props instead of bigfoot right? I dont understand why they do that. Do they feel a draw was that likely?. Your the prop expert so I wanted your take on it.

[PunisherIND]

Wow that's great value and welcome to the forum , I didnt even know Bodog did props. Have they got the over 2.5 or distance prop for tht fight?

Thanks vaughany. I've been following your thread closely and I look forward to commenting in the future.

I generally use 5dimes, and was also surprised to find that bodog had props available on undercard fights. However, it seems like the props are very limited. They don't have any "over 2.5" or distance props available (although that might change as it gets closer to fight night). They do have props for individual fighters winning by decision or inside the distance, but not the overall fight.

As for Quan vs. Reinhardt, they only have the 1 prop that i posted. Thanks for your input, I think i'll make a small play.

[Vaughany]

I agree its great value. Thats the only prop they have on that fight. They do props but not nearly as many as 5dimes/sportbet. They never have fight will go the distance props. It is usually over unders 2.5 rounds but only have props for main card fights.

I have question for you vaughany. Ill use fedor silva as my example. Bodog had bigfoot at +325, but they also had bigfoot inside the distance +700 and bigfoot by decision at +1100. So it wouldve made sense to just bet both of the props instead of bigfoot right? I dont understand why they do that. Do they feel a draw was that likely?. Your the prop expert so I wanted your take on it.

Gd question! In this instance it may of made sense to play each of the props if you were going to bet Silva but as long as the total of each bet didn#t exceed what u'd bet on Bigfoot outright. So say u were seeing value in Bigfoot and thought he would win and for examples sake you had 10 dollars to your name. So if u bet all 10 on Bigfoot at +325 u stand to win 32.50 (42.50 total return). You're other option as you say would be to take inside distance at +700 and by dec at +1100. So say u split ur 10 dollars 50/50 so put 5 dollars on the Big Foot inside distance and 5 on Bigfoot by decision. If he won by decision you would make 50 dollars profit (60 dollars total return minus the total stake of two plays (10) so = £50 profit. But if he wins inside distance u'd have a return of $40 ($30 profit from your original stake for both props). So to sum up you have 3 different payout possibilities if Silva does win:

Bigfoot at +325 = $10 risk.....$42.50 return ($32.50 profit);

OR

Bigfoot inside distance at +700 = $5 risk.....$40 return ($30 profit);

Big foot by dec at +1100 = $5 risk......$60 return ($50 profit)

So in this particular instance you only risk losing out on $2.50 profit if Silva does win inside the distance. But if you thought there was a decent chance that he could win by decision then it would be worth sacrificing that $2.50 for the chance of making an extra $17.50 profit ($50 minus $32.50). And IMO in this instance perhaps would of been worth and made sense to do this as Silva didn't have a clear one-way route of winning (but that is were one's own ideas of percentages of a fighter's chance of finishing against not finishing comes in to play). Where such an approach would perhaps not be worthwhile is with somebody such as Rivera against Bisping. IMO the likelihood of Rivera winning inside the distance far outweighs the chances of him winning by decision so if I was to play Rivera I would look to discard the Rivera by decision option - i.e I'd put all 10 dollars on Rivera inside the distance rather than even consider putting a dollar on Rivera by decision. To go even deeper and get more specific with prop percentages you could then rule out the possibility of Rivera winning by submission as that also seems very unlikely so would then look for a prop of Rivera to win by TKO/KO and put all 10 dollars on that. But again all depends on your view of what percentages and value is/are.

[NunyaBidness]

Good answer. One thing not to miss is that these are 5-way markets on bodog.

For example:

George Sotiropoulos wins inside distance -160
George Sotiropoulos wins by 3 round decision +250
Dennis Siver wins inside distance +425
Dennis Siver wins by 3 round decision +900
Draw +2500

A draw here is a loss, so if you had siver inside and siver by decision you've lost both bets, whereas a straight bet on Siver is a push.

Not that draws happen that often, but it should still be considered.

[xelance]

i just saw the same bet at bodog that you mentioned, great value IMO and I am going to put a LOT on it

[NunyaBidness]

long-time lurker here, finally decided to register.

bodog has a line for "Tiequan Zhang vs Jason Reinhardt completes 1 full round" at +200. seems like there's some value here. i realize that both fighters have rarely been outside of the first round. however, i believe when fighters get to the big stage, against better competition, they are more likely to be challenged and therefore there's a good chance this fight gets to the 2nd round.

anyone agree/disagree?

I agree, I took it at +220 yesterday.

[rocky mattioli]

i don`t think it`s a major stretch to worry that zhang subs reinhardt in the first...he was all over downes in the first of their fight...had multiple sub attempts that came fairly close(from what i`ve read)......

and reinhardt is the much smaller man...

i wouldn`t go all dooseypots on it....you really don`t have to take a huge chance given the excellent odds...

g.l.,guys...

[omalley21]

Gd question! In this instance it may of made sense to play each of the props if you were going to bet Silva but as long as the total of each bet didn#t exceed what u'd bet on Bigfoot outright. So say u were seeing value in Bigfoot and thought he would win and for examples sake you had 10 dollars to your name. So if u bet all 10 on Bigfoot at +325 u stand to win 32.50 (42.50 total return). You're other option as you say would be to take inside distance at +700 and by dec at +1100. So say u split ur 10 dollars 50/50 so put 5 dollars on the Big Foot inside distance and 5 on Bigfoot by decision. If he won by decision you would make 50 dollars profit (60 dollars total return minus the total stake of two plays (10) so = £50 profit. But if he wins inside distance u'd have a return of $40 ($30 profit from your original stake for both props). So to sum up you have 3 different payout possibilities if Silva does win:

Bigfoot at +325 = $10 risk.....$42.50 return ($32.50 profit);

OR

Bigfoot inside distance at +700 = $5 risk.....$40 return ($30 profit);

Big foot by dec at +1100 = $5 risk......$60 return ($50 profit)

So in this particular instance you only risk losing out on $2.50 profit if Silva does win inside the distance. But if you thought there was a decent chance that he could win by decision then it would be worth sacrificing that $2.50 for the chance of making an extra $17.50 profit ($50 minus $32.50). And IMO in this instance perhaps would of been worth and made sense to do this as Silva didn't have a clear one-way route of winning (but that is were one's own ideas of percentages of a fighter's chance of finishing against not finishing comes in to play). Where such an approach would perhaps not be worthwhile is with somebody such as Rivera against Bisping. IMO the likelihood of Rivera winning inside the distance far outweighs the chances of him winning by decision so if I was to play Rivera I would look to discard the Rivera by decision option - i.e I'd put all 10 dollars on Rivera inside the distance rather than even consider putting a dollar on Rivera by decision. To go even deeper and get more specific with prop percentages you could then rule out the possibility of Rivera winning by submission as that also seems very unlikely so would then look for a prop of Rivera to win by TKO/KO and put all 10 dollars on that. But again all depends on your view of what percentages and value is/are.

Thanks, great breakdown.

[teaserpleaser]

Hmm trust a 40 year old who hasn't fought in years and who mostly absolute bums...pass.

To keep it simple who else is Joe Silva going to give Zhang at 145 as beatable as reinhardt? Zhang is going to be used in the Ufcs asian expansion. If he cant beat reinhardt hes not going to make it in the ufc at 145. Those that understand the game understand why hes fighting reinhardt the can crusher. Nice win for the chinese media over a 20-1 ufc vet for the hometown boy

[FlashinLeather]

To keep it simple who else is Joe Silva going to give Zhang at 145 as beatable as reinhardt? Zhang is going to be used in the Ufcs asian expansion. If he cant beat reinhardt hes not going to make it in the ufc at 145. Those that understand the game understand why hes fighting reinhardt the can crusher. Nice win for the chinese media over a 20-1 ufc vet for the hometown boy

Good post, my thoughts exactly

[teaserpleaser]

Good post, my thoughts exactly

reinhardt is a can crusher he'll go win 4 more fights against some 0-5 and 2-11 midwest guys joe silva will use him to build somebody else up you watch and see. I can go fight guys with losing records in the midwest and have a good record thats a shame what this kid is doing. 20 fights hes still fighting 0-5 and 2-11 guys get real.