I personally don't feel comfortable betting on any of Sturm's fights. His level of inactivity coupled with the low quality of his opposition makes it hard for me to get a feel for his talent. If I had to bet it though, I would go under. In addition to what you said, I have concerns about Hearns' wind (I think the Yorgey TKO had as much to do with exhaustion as the punches). Also Hearns does have power and he may feel that the only way he can win in Germany against a German fighter is to go all out early and try to score the KO.