[koscheckbaby]

I think we should be throwing this into parlays and make a fairly decent sized on that one. Martin Kampmann is better than Diego everywhere. Diego's takedowns are crap for a guy that relies on top control BJJ. He needed Paulo Thiago to gas to take over in his last fight, losing the first round. Kampmann completely dominated Thiago and had him in survival mode the whole time, having it easier than Jon Fitch did. Kampmann is a borderline elite 170LBer. Diego Sanchez ranges from good to very good.

Scenarios for this fight
-Kampmann decides to keep it standing, since his takedown defense is good enough to stop Diego's poor takedowns. Diego only has a puncher's chance. And considering Daley and Marquardt are the ones to crack his chin, let's not overrate Diego's power by saying he can crack it.

-Kampmann decides to take Diego down or stay on top after a failed takedown by Diego. Kampmann's ground and top game is actually better than his standup. He has beaten Carlos Condit on the ground, who is better than Diego, Jacob Volkmann, who has legitimate BJJ credentials, and tooled Paulo Thiago, who was beating Diego prior to gassing.

I rarely feel THIS confident in fights. Martin Kampmann is being underrated with these odds and as usual Diego is being overrated. Diego's wrestling is TRASH. He could not takedown Luigi Fioravanti, John Alessio, and had no chance of taking down John Hathaway, who Mike Pyle got down no problem.

[Vaughany]

Pretty much agree with that, only issue is if it goes to decision (which Im at least 75% sure it will), u cant rely on the judges. They could easily give it to Sanchez if he manages to get the odd takedown whilst he's fresh, shows "octagon control" by pressuring Kampmann with his constant pace and makes lots of noises! Also, if anything I expect Kampmann's line to improve, he's a TUF vet with a big fan base, coming off a Fight of the Night victory (whilst Kampmann is coming off a loss to a relatively low-key fighter in Shields for MMA noobs) and Kampmann's grappling is always underrated, I think casuals still just see him as a Danish kickboxer. Anyway, Im a lot more confident betting on this one going to decision or at least having that prop in a number of parlays.

[koscheckbaby]

Yeah. Diego has that typical Mexican chin and Kampmann isn't known for power. Obviously, Sanchez has shown to have great submission defense, so getting subbed is also low probability. Kampmann by decision is probably the most obvious prop.

The thing about a screwjob decision is I don't see Diego being on top or winning enough of the standup to warrant it. Kampmann is gonna be on top anyways if this is a ground fight, and you know how the judges like to give the decision to the guy on top. Hell, a lot of people think Condit won that Kampmann fight(I had it for Martin) and Kampmann got it via being on top.

I want to see Kampmann versus Fitch. Kampmann MIGHT be on his level. He's real good and it's shitty he has a loss to a one dimensional guy like Daley.

[Kaladarus]

I don't think Kampmann is even close to the same level as Fitch. He should beat Diego, but I think the line is close to accurate.

[GunShard]

I think there is a good public perception on Sanchez since he looked good in past fights and that most of the public knows Sanchez since being on TUF. Than knowing Kampmann.

Kampmann should be able to defeat Sanchez.

Everyone should take advantage of the value on Kampmann.

[koscheckbaby]

Looking back in time, Diego has been exceptionally lucky for his limited skillset. He would not have gotten through Nate Quarry or Chris Leben on TUF had Nate not gotten injured or Chris not taken that fluke cut stoppage loss. Also, he was set to face Thiago Alves prior to getting injured and pulling out of the fight. That would have ended badly for him.

There's definitely good value in betting against Diego. He's tough, but Kampmann has been way more impressive.

[Glitch]

he use to be the nightmare.

[koscheckbaby]

he use to be the nightmare.

When he was struggling to beat John Alessio? Or when Luigi Fioravanti outwrestled him? Lol

[gym rat]

The squares will be all over Sanchez and sharps will take Kampmann. Kampmann still needs to fight smart and up to his potential to win though. So even though Kampmann is the smart bet, as we all know the sharps don't always win and there are no locks in any sport.