1. #1
    lasker
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    Arlovski vs Kharitonov

    Interested to hear some thoughts regarding this matchup. The more I think about it, the more I'm leaning towards Arlovski. My feeling is that the longer the fight goes, the better for Arlovski. He's coming off some bad losses and will probably have jitters in the first round, but if he gets through that I expect his better cardio and better footwork will see him through.

    I actually like the chances of Arlovski by decision... I think if it goes to decision it's highly unlikely Kharitonov takes it. Arlovski will probably have a good gameplan, as he's training with Greg Jackson's camp, which might involve sticking and moving and basically outspeeding Kharitonov en route to a decision victory or maybe a 3rd round TKO if Kharitonov's cardio isn't up to par. I guess we don't know much about Kharitonov's cardio since he almost never goes out of the first round, but hasn't he seemed out of shape lately?

    I'd love to see some analysis on this one. I know Arlovski's motivation is through the roof, at least if his recent interviews are to be believed. I think Arlovski will have better technical boxing and head movement, better movement in general, and he also has decent leg kicks while Kharitonov seems to rely exclusively on his hands. As for props, Arlovski by decision +340 and Arlovski wins in round 3 +1000 look interesting to me. One can't expect the ground game to be tested much in this one, but if it goes there I'd expect Arlovski to be just fine. The main concerns are obviously his chin and Kharitonov's power, but it seems worth the risk at these odds, perhaps with a small hedge on Kharitonov in round 1 +300. Aside from a split decision win against Werdum, all of Kharitonov's wins have been by stoppage in round 1, including his lone win in K1.

    Anybody have info on Kharitonov's training, specifically who he trains with these days? How do you see this one going down?

  2. #2
    xelance
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    I dont have much analysis for this fight...sorry...but I really like Arlovski in this fight. He is my pick for a 2nd round TKO He has lost the past few fights, but I believe he will turn it around in this one. Also, according to sherdog, Khari is training with Golden Glory..not sure who his trainer is.

  3. #3
    Poppa Catfish
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    I'm having a hell of a time pulling the trigger on Arlovski, and here is why

    First he seems to have all the tools to outbox and out game plan Kharitonov, but he also seems to suffer these major lapses in his fights where we see him completely throw out his conservative gameplan. Add that with a suspect chin and Kharitonov's power and it spells potential disaster. Not to mention Bigfoot had no problem landing heavy punches, and actually was outboxing Arlovski.

    Second he came in to AKA while he was training for the Bigfoot fight, and was thoroughly man handled by Cain. Just looked like a complete and total amateur in comparison. Granted it was against Cain, but I just can't get out of my head how absolutely trash his wrestling is. If things go poorly on the feet, Arlovski doesn't have much of a back up plan to fall back on. If he gets rocked at all during this fight, this fight is over.

    I'm holding off on this bet until I see what shape Sergei is in.

  4. #4
    ttrace35
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    I like the prop of AA winning in rd. 1 +455. He likes to come out fast and he has better stand-up than sergei. Both have suspect chins so this probably doesn't make rd 2. (as laker already mentioned). Foget about that AA by decision prop and the 3rd rd. Don't forget that sergei has like 50 fights and only 2 or 3 have went the distance. Its just as unlikely to end in the 3rd rd IMO. Somebody gets KTFO early.

  5. #5
    koscheckbaby
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    I disagree with the board on this one. I really love Sergei in this fight. He qualified for the Olympics in the past for boxing. His hands are powerful and accurate. He's definitely past his prime, but his power is still there and he trains at Golden Glory. Arlovski looked like a scared puppy against Bigfoot Silva, very tentative and mentally broken. He also still has that same problem of backing straight up with his hands down when he is bullrushed. Sergei's aggressive(although it got him in trouble in his last K-1 fight. Andre hasn't shown to be able to handle it though) Sergei by KO

  6. #6
    Poppa Catfish
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    disagree with the board? Who are you talking about?

    So far it sounds like I'm leaning towards Sergei, trace has a prop, and two people leaning towards Arlovski. If anything I think the board is on apathy (aka no bet) for this fight.

  7. #7
    Vaughany
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    Quote Originally Posted by Poppa Catfish View Post
    disagree with the board? Who are you talking about?

    So far it sounds like I'm leaning towards Sergei, trace has a prop, and two people leaning towards Arlovski. If anything I think the board is on apathy (aka no bet) for this fight.
    ha yeah and I've bet on Kharitonov by TKO/KO!

  8. #8
    Poppa Catfish
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    so basically the board is split right down the middle?

    TKO/KO sounds right, but as I state earlier I really need to see Sergei to put any kind of money down on him. I'm not even expecting rippled muscles and washboard abs, just hoping he doesn't show up looking bloated.

  9. #9
    sirchadwick1
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    On Sergei at EVEN. AA may have all the tools to win, but he seems to be mentally weak in there at this point. His chin isn't helping him at all either. Arlovski will have to dance around in this one to win and hope that Sergei gasses later on where he can pour it on. I really think Sergei takes this one within 2 by TKO/KO. While a shell of his former self, he still possesses heavy hands and precision with his strikes. He also looks like he's been getting back in shape so hopefully his cardio is back in order.

  10. #10
    ttrace35
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    I think everybody agrees that this fight doesn't go the distance.

  11. #11
    rocky mattioli
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    arlovski is a riddle,wrapped in mystery,inside an enigma(apologies to the great w.c.).....

    this guy has the size,the quicks....skill.....he`s an amazing athlete...but he just can`t seem to utiliize all the genetic gifts he has been blessed with...

    he had fedor completely befuddled until he got cocky and careless....and those losses to sylvia?....wtf?....


    might be as big a waste of potential as any fighter i can think of...
    Last edited by rocky mattioli; 02-08-11 at 08:11 AM.

  12. #12
    sirchadwick1
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    One good shot is all it will take. Obviously these training sessions shouldn't persuade you as he's only going 60%... but I think Sergei will pull it off. He does look leaner than he did in his fight w/ Monson.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ndcPb...eature=channel
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1kRDc...eature=channel
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AyKwm...eature=channel
    Last edited by sirchadwick1; 02-08-11 at 01:35 PM.

  13. #13
    PorkyPig
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    kharitonov hasn't looked good a long time, i wouldn't put my money on him

  14. #14
    lasker
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    Quote Originally Posted by PorkyPig View Post
    kharitonov hasn't looked good a long time, i wouldn't put my money on him
    I agree. Many seem to be focusing on how bad Arlovski has looked lately, but I truly believe Kharitonov has looked worse. He has only fought three times since September, 2007, and to me he doesn't look sharp at all anymore. He looks slow, and I think Arlovski's speed advantage will be the difference.

    Kharitonov talks about maybe taking Arlovski down in a recent interview:http://www.sherdog.net/forums/f61/kh...round-1525531/ And there are videos of him training with Jon Olav Einemo. But Arlovski is not easy to take down in the first place. And if Kharitonov is really keeping that as plan B in case "things go wrong in standup," as he says, I just can't see him taking Arlovski down and keeping him there.


    Recent interview with Arlovski:



    It's a tough fight to call, but I like Arlovski's mindset and I think he has all the tools to rebound in this one.

  15. #15
    ttrace35
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    Quote Originally Posted by PorkyPig View Post
    kharitonov hasn't looked good a long time, i wouldn't put my money on him
    Absolutely. Hope he comes in fat like usual. What is the props limit for 5 dimes?

  16. #16
    koscheckbaby
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    Quote Originally Posted by Poppa Catfish View Post
    disagree with the board? Who are you talking about?

    So far it sounds like I'm leaning towards Sergei, trace has a prop, and two people leaning towards Arlovski. If anything I think the board is on apathy (aka no bet) for this fight.
    I made a thread about loving Sergei in this spot and most were saying no bet or leaned Arlovski. That's why I said that. No one has really backed me up in LOVING Sergei in this spot. I do think that is preventing me from making a heavy play, since I don't claim to know more than others. But in this case, I see AA face down unconscious again pretty confidently. Gotta measure how much I play though. Sergei has looked like shit recently.

  17. #17
    koscheckbaby
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    Let me just say, I can understand people liking Andre to strike and move on Sergei. Sergei has seemed slow recently, while Arlovski clearly should have the speed advantage. If this were a lower weight fight, I can definitely see being on Andre. But between Sergei's power, accuracy, aggression, and Andre's inability to handle aggression, history of brutal KOs, and seeming mental frailty, I think at close to even odds, you gotta take the Big Russian over the Belarusian. I like Sergei to finish the job when he lands on Andre.

    Let us not forget how poorly Andre looked against Bigfoot Silva last time out. Silva outboxed him pretty decisively. Not that Silva is a chump, but Werdum outboxed Bigfoot a fight prior. Andre appears to be getting worse.

  18. #18
    terpkeg
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    Wasnt Arlovski training with Greg Jackson before Bigfoot as well?

  19. #19
    Gee
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    These guys are both washed up.

    I would have been excited by this 5 years ago. I remember when Kharitanov burst onto the scene smashing a very fat Ninja, then Semmy, then losing a terrible decision to Nog. He should have gone through that GP. He was 23/24 then and touted as the next big thing. I dont know what happened, but he never came on and hasn't impressed me since then. He has been incredibly slow.

    Similarly, Arlovski was brilliant for a while.

    I think Arlovski kills him with movement and speed. If it goes to the ground, kharitonov isn't exactly a great mover - which will be worse with the cage.

    Arlovski for me, but these guys are both shit. Arlovski has a glass jaw and this could be over with arlovski bobbing in and getting caught by a jab. not going to be a big bet.

  20. #20
    Poppa Catfish
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    Quote Originally Posted by koscheckbaby View Post
    I made a thread about loving Sergei in this spot and most were saying no bet or leaned Arlovski. That's why I said that. No one has really backed me up in LOVING Sergei in this spot. I do think that is preventing me from making a heavy play, since I don't claim to know more than others. But in this case, I see AA face down unconscious again pretty confidently. Gotta measure how much I play though. Sergei has looked like shit recently.
    I don't possibly see how a person can love Sergei in this spot, but I see your point.

    Well more than likely I will be on him by KO/TKO, so good luck to Sergei backers big and small

  21. #21
    Poppa Catfish
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    Quote Originally Posted by terpkeg View Post
    Wasnt Arlovski training with Greg Jackson before Bigfoot as well?
    Camp hopping with AKA and Jackson. But yes, yes he was, this is nothing new and he certainly didn't out game plan Bigfoot for what it is worth.


    This time around he did his own camp plus went to Jackson's for a bit.
    Last edited by Poppa Catfish; 02-08-11 at 05:41 PM.

  22. #22
    koscheckbaby
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    Quote Originally Posted by Poppa Catfish View Post
    I don't possibly see how a person can love Sergei in this spot, but I see your point.

    Well more than likely I will be on him by KO/TKO, so good luck to Sergei backers big and small
    Aggressive striker with massive KO power fighting a guy that looked scared and tentative in his last fight and has a history of being brutally KO'ed. His answer to Brett Rogers charging forward on him was to back up in a straight line and have his hands down, which he did a few times in the Bigfoot fight. The ingredients add up to brutal KO loss for Andre, regardless of the fact Sergei has declined.

  23. #23
    Poppa Catfish
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    Well if you put it like that, then yes yes it is a very good spot.

    Problem is most of us saw that K1 fight of his, and to describe him as an aggressive striker would be a stretch. In fact I would actually describe him in that fight as scared and tentative. In the Monson fight as well, plus I would add out of shape and slow.

    One half decent performance against a middle of the road light heavyweight doesn't put my mind exactly at ease.

  24. #24
    lasker
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    Quote Originally Posted by koscheckbaby View Post
    Aggressive striker with massive KO power fighting a guy that looked scared and tentative in his last fight and has a history of being brutally KO'ed. The ingredients add up to brutal KO loss for Andre, regardless of the fact Sergei has declined.
    I see where you're coming from, but you say "regardless of the fact that Sergei has declined" as if it's some insignificant detail. It's very, very significant imo. The decline has been serious, Kharitonov has hardly fought over the last few years, and he looks downright lethargic compared to Arlovski, even this more tentative version of Arlovski. I also disagree about Bigfoot outboxing Arlovski "pretty decisively." He mainly closed the distance and dirty boxed or took him down. True, he had some success in the first round with boxing, but for the majority of the fight he was clinching and pushing Arlovski up against the cage and making sure he wasn't given space to box. It was a great gameplan by Bigfoot, but Kharitonov will fight very differently. Also I didn't think Werdum outboxed Bigfoot. In round 1 Bigfoot was picking him apart with strikes, and Werdum won rounds 2 and 3 but because of effective grappling much more than boxing.

    Not saying Arlovski should be a big favorite or anything, of course he could get clipped, but I just don't see this as one-sided at all.
    Last edited by lasker; 02-08-11 at 06:00 PM.

  25. #25
    Vrakas
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    these guys should put out a good fight.i would like to see arlovski win this.he really needs a boost.

  26. #26
    koscheckbaby
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    Quote Originally Posted by Poppa Catfish View Post
    Well if you put it like that, then yes yes it is a very good spot.

    Problem is most of us saw that K1 fight of his, and to describe him as an aggressive striker would be a stretch. In fact I would actually describe him in that fight as scared and tentative. In the Monson fight as well, plus I would add out of shape and slow.

    One half decent performance against a middle of the road light heavyweight doesn't put my mind exactly at ease.
    Which fight you talking about? Ghita? His last K-1 fight, where he got TKO'ed by the Indian guy, he was in his face, throwing power shots, which got him clipped on a counter. Andre generally isn't a great counter striker. He usually is offensive and doesn't handle aggression well. That last K-1 fight where Sergei lost would still be good enough to finish Andre at the beginning IMO

  27. #27
    koscheckbaby
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    And THAT"s why I loved Sergei in this fight. Damn you guys for making my doubt my love for the pick a little bit.

  28. #28
    Poppa Catfish
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    Don't act like Arlovski didn't almost connect with a couple of punches, the fight was razor close and thankfully we cashed

  29. #29
    sirchadwick1
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    War Sergei!
    Banked.

  30. #30
    GoGoGadget
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    Quote Originally Posted by Poppa Catfish View Post
    Don't act like Arlovski didn't almost connect with a couple of punches, the fight was razor close and thankfully we cashed
    Razor close indeed, I personally thought as he was dropping to the ground after being tagged that his leg would bounce off the ring and decapitate Sergei. I wasn't sure if he was out cold or if he was in a deep trance using his jedi mind tricks to melt Sergei's brain. Could have went either way.

  31. #31
    koscheckbaby
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    Quote Originally Posted by Poppa Catfish View Post
    Don't act like Arlovski didn't almost connect with a couple of punches, the fight was razor close and thankfully we cashed
    Well, of course Andre was gonna get his licks in. He had the speed edge and Sergei has looked slow. But sometimes you gotta stick to the basics. Glass chin vs granite chins was the theme of this fight. Sergei is tough enough to take a few to land his and that's exactly what happened.

  32. #32
    stefan084
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    Arlovski started the fight out boxing Sergei when he kept moving and stayed off the cage. For whatever reason he backs straight up against the cage and sits there waiting to get tagged which he did

  33. #33
    lasker
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    Quote Originally Posted by koscheckbaby View Post
    And THAT"s why I loved Sergei in this fight. Damn you guys for making my doubt my love for the pick a little bit.
    I did say it might make sense to hedge with Kharitonov in round 1. Arlovski was looking good early and had it gone to round 2 there's no telling who would have won. Good hit for ya

  34. #34
    GoGoGadget
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    Quote Originally Posted by stefan084 View Post
    Arlovski started the fight out boxing Sergei when he kept moving and stayed off the cage. For whatever reason he backs straight up against the cage and sits there waiting to get tagged which he did
    Ya I was scratching my head. He was moving fast but he backed up into the cage quite a few times which was retarded, I thought he'd be sticking and moving on the outside.. I'm guessing Greg Jackson is pissed.

  35. #35
    kiefynugs
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    Quote Originally Posted by koscheckbaby View Post
    Well, of course Andre was gonna get his licks in. He had the speed edge and Sergei has looked slow. But sometimes you gotta stick to the basics. Glass chin vs granite chins was the theme of this fight. Sergei is tough enough to take a few to land his and that's exactly what happened.
    BS

    arlovski's poor movement and lack of D in the clinch is what lost him the fight. He took a bunch of hard shots and his chin had little to do with it. Short punches vs. big punches was the theme of this one.

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