[Vaughany]

After nice wins with Stann and Wiman as underdogs in their last fights, going for the hattrick with Romero as +115 dog against Kingsbu, so thought I'd create another underdog-pick-specific thread for this match-up in order to generate more discussion/debate! Have just copy and pasted my ramblings from my thread...

I was always liking Romero in this one but I expected Kingsbury to come out as an undervalued dog (due to Romero being the superior wrestler and because of his impressive comeback against Petruzelli) so was actually going to take Kingsbury at +175 or better. Was anticipating Romero to come out at -140 to -190 range or something along those lines so couldn't help but go bigger than usual at the +115 odds available.

IMO Romero has an advantage in both wrestling and BJJ. He has Div1 Wrestling experience at Rutgers with 94 wins at 197lbs. He earned No10 National Ranking at one point during his college career. He also has a purple belt in Gracie BJJ and owns a 1st round sub win over Nova Uniao black belt Silmar Rodrigo. For me this does not bode well for Kingsbury who has struggled in the past against wrestlers and been susceptible to submissions. Both Soszynski and Bader subbed Kingsbury on TUF and Tom Lawler (a natural 185lb'er) decisioned him at the finale. In his last two fights in the UFC Kingsbu didn't have to worry about a significant grappling threat as Hamann and Al-Hassan are predominantly stand-up based. In fact, Kingsbu even had the edge in wrestling and was able to score significant points against both fighters through takedowns (Kingsbury used his size advantage to clinch with Hamman against the cage whenever he started taking shots from Hamman and get take downs, mostly in first round). He showed limited ability to control Hamann when he did get him to the ground, as Hamman was able to pop right back up everytime. Moreover, both Hamman and Al-Hassan are tall rangy strikers who aren't very bulky 205ers and Kingsbu clearly had a strength advantage which helped a lot. Against Romero, although he will still have a height and reach advantage, he wont necessarily have a strength advantage as Romero has a very different body type to Al-Hassan and Hamann (built more like a bull!). One area that Kingsbury may have an advantage in is cardio. However, Romero had his jaw broken in the first round against Petruzelli and this undoubtely effected his breathing and along with the first time octagon 'jitters' it was not surprising that he looked gassed out before pulling off the submission. Training with the likes of the Miller brothers and Charlie Brenneman at AMA I think Romero's cardio will be okay and more vitally his grit and determination will narrow the margin. Overall, the key for a Romero win will be to pressure Kingsbu early against the cage and drag him to the mat and from there work a submission such as a keylock, arm-triangle, or kimura. Even if Romero stands with Kingsbury, he has shown that he has a granite chin and some power so will be able to hang there. Im not convinced that Kingsbury's takedown and submission defence will have improved enough since his time on TUF and that Romero will eventually find a way to get this to the ground and submit Kingsbu.

[koscheckbaby]

I'll follow, although Romero didn't deserve his first UFC win. Seth had him.

[Educ8d Degener8]

Nice write-up.

And as you briefly eluded to, betting on Romero is also in line with fading TUF fighters

[lasker]

great write-up Vaugh, but for some reason I'm just not sold on Romero. I'll probably sit this one out. Good luck!