[VictorRoll]

Made my way over here from Sherdog...

Definitely not a newbie to MMA (following since I saw UFC 2 live back in 1993) but I am admittedly new to betting on it. I'm hoping my knowledge and history of good picks on paper translate well. So I look forward to jumping in big.

I've got a pretty decent bankroll so honestly I'm not that interested in small gains, but rather big gambles for big payoffs. Think: Shields, Belfort, etc. My strategy, though, would be to parlay those alongside sure winners (imho) to up the ante. My initial hopes are not to stretch out paydays to events that don't take place more than a month away.

So that said: let's toe the water with $500 to start. I'm open to a lot more, but so you get a sense of what I'm thinking... I'm looking at a parlay of something like this:

Franklin
Fedor
Torres
Diaz
Yamamoto
Jones
Belfort (with Belfort being a 38% gamble, in my mind)

for a win of $8,504. Belfort could blow this, but it's $500 I can walk away from.

Or change that up to:
Franklin
Fedor
Torres
Diaz
Yamamoto
Silva

for a win of $2,609.

Any thoughts on this? Or am I completely delusional?? I don't see the reward in putting up $500 to win $500, as I said I'm not hurting financially. I'm hoping for $1,000+ returns.

Ok, knock some sense into me. Thanks!

[urge2kill]

Constantly betting big favorites is an easy way to lose a lot of money.

[Educ8d Degener8]

Too many favs.

Too many fights (in the parlays). For instance, your 2nd example has quite a few potential deal busters in there (Torres, Kid, Franklin).

Sounds like you've got money to burn, so why not just lay higher wagers on the dogs if you like their respective ROI's? Or maybe parlay one or two "high probability" favorites with a dog to further escalate the potential payout? Or parlay two reasonable dogs (ex. $500 on Belfort & Bader pays $5,675)

There's a lot of sharp bettors here. You can learn a lot just lurking and reading their threads; and I'm sure you'll get some more responses as well... Good luck regardless.

[VictorRoll]

Thanks, guys. Well, my concern with laying down anything on Belfort AND Bader is: I don't trust two dogs to come through, especially Bader. Don't get me wrong, I'm actually hoping he wins. But common knowledge tells me Jones is just a phenom in the making (most anyone can see this, and Shogun and Mousasi have said this as well). So I'm not big on throwing money away THAT easily.

No way Torres loses. He's an active, aggressive, forward fighter on the feet and off his back. Banuelos won't submit him (he hasn't shown this talent). And Torres can control the fight on the feet, I believe, avoiding the looping punches Banuelos throws. Franklin should win via better gameplan. Forrest is bigger, but slower without KO power. Franklin's smart enough to know to steal the rounds via takedown if he has to. But i see his speed winning him the UD. Yamamoto is just too big for Johnson. And he's a heavy, volume puncher who's unpredictable - my favorite kind of fighter. Johnson is going to have to work if he wants that win.

As for parlaying one or two "high probability" favorites with a dog to escalate the payout, maybe I'm wrong, but isn't that was I did? Or am I missing something? Seriously... Or, I guess Franklin's and Yamamoto's not high probably enough. I guess I can see your point. Hmmmm, I'll consider it.

So that said, I removed Jones from the second parlay because, shit, anything can happen. But Silva wins this via more ways than Vitor (submitting a tired Vitor in later rounds, TKOing a fresh Vitor, KOing a tired Vitor or UD via striking prowess). Vitor wins this by catching Silva and TKO to finish (which we have yet to see) or using Couture's gameplan of tying him up, dragging him down and trying to actively score from the top position. I'm torn on it, but I say it goes either way.

[Educ8d Degener8]

Laying one or two "high probability" favorites with a dog is one thing, but your parlays are 6 and 7-fight parlays... or am I missing something?

Odds are one (or two or three) of those fights will bust your parlay more often than not.

But if you really like those plays, and want to pop your cherry with that kind of play, then by all means, do so. I just doubt you'll get much encouragement from any experienced bettors.

That being said, I surely don't encourage those parlays, but if you go with 'em, I'll still wish ya luck.

ps. Quite a few of the sharps on this board are fading Kid. Although a lot of those plays were based on nabbing Johnson's early lines... I'm just staying away from that one personally. I'll be rooting for Kid, but his octagon debut (cage / jitters) after a one fight win streak (over Frederico Lopez) is not a bet I'm too confident in. Would love to see an exciting KO from Yamamoto and a return to form outta him though...

[terpkeg]

Straight bets are the way to go. You are going to lose value betting parlays. Only way I see parlays being acceptable is if you find value in the favorites, but the amount of risk is too great for your min win comfort level. That does not seem to be an issue here as you stated your bank roll is very large. IMHO, if you are confident in your skills and want the action, bet all of above fighters straight.

[urge2kill]

You need to consider the probability vs the odds you're betting. If Vitor is really 38% to win as you say you shouldn't be betting Silva. Current odds have it roughly 70/30 for Silva, vs your 62/38.

[urge2kill]

Another disadvantage of big parlays is that you're usually taking worse odds on some or all of the fighters than if you bet singles at multiple books.

[VictorRoll]

Shit, this is hard....

[stefan084]

being a gambling degenerate is hard work my friend. join us and turn to the dark side

[JuicedUp]

with parlays that big you are just making donations to the books.

[VictorRoll]

Sportsbook has Roger Gracie at -140. That's ridiculous. This guy is like the second coming of Rickson, just not as durable. Shitty thing is they have a limit of $250 to bet. Easy money, though, imho.

[Poppa Catfish]

A 3-0 fighter is easy money? Especially one that had some problems against Kevin Randleman, who at the point of their fight was 3-7 in his last 10?

I think their limit just might end up saving you some of your unemployment money, imo.

[VictorRoll]

^^ Haha, good call... I wasn't worried in the Randleman fight.

[jin2daj]

haha i love randleman. the monster is such a perfect nickname. unfortunately he loses to anyone with a remote trace of skill.

[Poppa Catfish]

Randleman always finds a way to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.

I don't think that Gracie is awful, nor do I think that Trevor will necessarily win this fight. I just think that you aren't getting good value out of this pick, and to boot you are putting money down on an unknown commodity.

Get that money Victor

[VictorRoll]

I just think that you aren't getting good value out of this pick, and to boot you are putting money down on an unknown commodity.

Get that money Victor

This is what I like to hear! That said, after thinking long and hard about it, I don't think Ryan Bader can do it. I'm gonna pull him off any parlays I may go with. Or at least use him on a small-dollar parlay; can't let him ruin me.

So Vitor will be my true X factor, as I still believe strongly in everyone else I've listed.

[Vaughany]

[quote=Educ8d Degener8;8536539]Too many favs. so why not just lay higher wagers on the dogs if you like their respective ROI's? [quote]

If you've got money to burn then this would be the best option IMO. If your patient you will be able to get plenty of great value dogs coming up in the same mould as Volkmann against McKee (+190 to +240 range). I wouldnt be surprised to see Morecraft come out as the dog against McCorkle for example. The other option is to consider prop bets or prop bets within a parlay so that your gettin big reward at less risk. For instance, I'm more confident of Griffin/Franklin going to decision (-190 sportbet) than I am of Franklin winning straight up (-181). Moreover, if Franklin is to beat Griffin it's likely to be the majority of time by decision (I'd say more than 70% of the time) so if I was going to involve Franklin in a parlay I'd do Franklin by dec, or Griffin/Franklin to decision. Also, in many circumstances the chances of a certain result are extremely low, for instance what are the chances tht Griffin subs Franklin or vice-versa, or that Griffin wins by KO? Im sure u'd agree very low so by having just Franklin to win or Griffin to win straight up your losing a lot of value.
If you are dead set on a parlay I'd consider something like Fitch by decision, Condit/Lytle to decision and Sanchez/Kampmann to decision or something similar. Obviously you're limited to certain types of parlays depending on what books your signed up to?

[VictorRoll]

Well guys, I hate to be a little bitch. But researching around the 'net, I read a lot of horror stories about Bodog (who I have an account with) and their payout drama. Check limits, foreign check trouble, red tape regarding what bank you have, etc... I'm tempted to walk away.

Is Bodog legit here?

[Poppa Catfish]

Bodog used to be hell to get a check here in the states, but they really have cleaned up their act. I obviously can't speak to their foreign division, but it wouldn't surprise me if what you heard were old bodog stories. They really used to be a nightmare.

[Vaughany]

Are u based in USA VictorRoll or do you have Pinnacle account?

[VictorRoll]

Are u based in USA VictorRoll or do you have Pinnacle account?

I'm USA, split time between Hawaii and Texas.

[Poppa Catfish]

Bodog should work well for you then, I would get another book like 5dimes to supplement it though, Bodog offers good lines on underdogs and certain props, but often times it has heavily priced favorites. Also the props are posted very late and are usually awfully scarce.

[JuicedUp]

Victorroll you will be much happier with 5dimes for mma.

[ttrace35]

Victorroll you will be much happier with 5dimes for mma.

5 Dimes.

[Vaughany]

Yeah 5dimes/Sporbet

[Educ8d Degener8]

Vaughany covered something I forgot earlier -- prop bets.

For example, from your explanation above, it appears you don't see the Belfort - Silva fight going the distance, so why not play Belfort inside the distance at +300, rather than just Belfort at +225? Or you could just lay cash on Belfort - Silva does not go the distance at -300, if you're comfortable with that juice...

Regarding sportsbooks -- 5dimes.

Bookmaker usually has early lines though if you are set on catching early value.

Bodog -- will let others chime in there. They recently closed the account of one of our esteemed brethren. Perhaps he'll comment.

[Vaughany]

Yeah or even more so just take Belfort to win by TKO/KO at +350 as I think Belfort by sub is the least likely outcome! Belfort's long-lay off and cut 185lbs also makes it very unlikely that he can go hard for 5 rounds either so I highly doubt he takes a decision. I personally will be looking to get Belfort TKO/KO of the Night as a hedge or even Belfort by TKO/KO in Rnd 1 at +700 to +900 range.

[xelance]

does 5dimes usually need a copy of your id/ credit card, etc. to make the first deposit? How smooth are they in terms of depositing money? I have bookmaker, which is decent for opening lines but horrible when it comes to props.

[Educ8d Degener8]

does 5dimes usually need a copy of your id/ credit card, etc. to make the first deposit? How smooth are they in terms of depositing money? I have bookmaker, which is decent for opening lines but horrible when it comes to props.

No id required. Set up username / password. Call customer hotline with username / password -- they give you contact info to ** funds. ** the funds, call them with confirmation number... you're account gets credited. They cover the ** transfer cost as well.

They have a 50% new player reward promo running now... up to like $200 initial deposit or something, and 20% beyond that up to like $2000-ish...

You can deposit using a credit card, but I shy away from that.

[FlashinLeather]

If you are into parlays I would never go over a 3 fighter parlay. You are sill likely to loose on a 3 fighter parlay but, with more than that I would say you loose 97% of the time, that is why the payout is so good. Bet like you would bet other sports, would you put $500 on a 8 team NFL/NBA/NHL parlay, I know I would not.

[urge2kill]

Bodog is the one of the worst books you can use if you're betting big favorites, as they have some of the worst lines on favs. You're going to pay -500 for your Torres and Diaz picks instead of -350 elsewhere.

[xelance]

No id required. Set up username / password. Call customer hotline with username / password -- they give you contact info to ** funds. ** the funds, call them with confirmation number... you're account gets credited. They cover the ** transfer cost as well. They have a 50% new player reward promo running now... up to like $200 initial deposit or something, and 20% beyond that up to like $2000-ish... You can deposit using a credit card, but I shy away from that.

great info thank you. I am in a foreign country right now, but I believe they still have **..so I will check on that. Thanks again.

[VictorRoll]

Thanks for all the pointers, guys! I'll look into 5Dimes.

Here's the rub about Vitor: Recently changing his camp to Randy Couture's team (because, as he put it, differences in how to fight Anderson with his old coach), I'm expecting Vitor to follow the map laid out by Sonnen. Sure, he can exchange on the feet but that's also his best bet to lose. He knows this; it's just a fact of modern MMA to have to play rules in your favor. So I think he'll look to use his punching to open up opportunities to take down Silva and be active on the ground - IF HE DOESN'T FEEL LIKE HE CAN CAPITALIZE ON THE FEET. That's where Randy's coaching comes in: tie up Silva, dirty boxing, take him down, pound for points.

So this fight could very well go the distance. Wait, let me add: Vitor's punching power is far greater than Sonnen's so you never know - he could TKO Silva on the ground as well. Damn. What to do, what to do...

[kiefynugs]

The only reason I'd bet vitor would be banking on Silva hiding injuries and being too old.