[Educ8d Degener8]

Thanks for all the pointers, guys! I'll look into 5Dimes.

Here's the rub about Vitor: Recently changing his camp to Randy Couture's team (because, as he put it, differences in how to fight Anderson with his old coach), I'm expecting Vitor to follow the map laid out by Sonnen... Damn. What to do, what to do...

I agree that Belfort moving to train with Couture is interesting as Couture is a solid game-planner, but there is one key point to consider here:

Sonnen is considered by many to have the best pure MMA wrestling. In the world. Typically mentioned in the same breath with GSP and his Sonnen's Quest teammate, Dan Henderson... and iirc, I believe Henderson has even stated that Chael has the best wrestling in mma, and that's a pretty serious co-sign.

So I'm not sure we'll see Belfort storming in with a Sonnen-like fury and thrashing the Spider on his backside.

Though you raise a good point in that Belfort's striking acumen (much greater than Sonnen's) does add another dimension to the equation.

[VictorRoll]

Well, like I said, working in Randy is really telling. Randy's not exactly a striking coach. And while he is a great gameplanner, the only real way he can help Vitor is 1.) by pointing out exploits he took advantage of when they fought and 2.) by sharing wrestling tips. Vitor doesn't have to take Silva down repeatedly; just once or twice to get him thinking about it and dropping his hands.

[xelance]

as mentioned before by other posters, I would only bet Vitor via KO/TKO if I was going to bet on him at all...I might put a small play on that. With that being said, I think Silva beats Vitor within the distance...but I wont place bets on any odds above -200. I did that last UFC card (Dunham) and got screwed.

[VictorRoll]

I agree about Silva. I see him winning this, but Vitor is worth a small play if you can afford it.

Guillard, on the other hand, I had him taking that from the get-go. His speed, power and working with Greg Jackson has made him a more careful fighter who explodes when he needs to. His last fight was very indicative of that. I'm surprised Dunham was such a favorite...

[Kaladarus]

Something to consider. You're initial parlay has fighters on different cards. So say you've got $500 to burn you could just put that $500 on the first card with a parlay. If you were going to have a 7 fighter parlay with maybe 3 of those fighters being on the first card you now have the money from your win. You would get pretty much the same amount of money betting your winnings on the first parlay on your next 4 fighter parlay if the odds are similar at that time. Since parlays will always be available and the odds of many fighters will likely stay fairly close you would have a lot more money to play with when its time to deal with the second fight card. One thing to consider is line movement, if you get a good price on someone that's not fighting on the first card then maybe it's worth throwing them in the play. Also by play card by card you have more opportunities to play props.

[Kaladarus]

My advice overall is play the first card and see where you're at and then maybe you can split your winnings on several plays on the second card.

[Eccocide]

-Vitor and Sonnen have very little in common skill wise
-training with Randy or at Xtreme Couture doesn't make you an elite level wrestler like Sonnen
-Belfort was at Xtreme Couture for his last fight and has been for a while. He was only training with Tompkins for striking / rest with Xtreme Couture but has now chosen to go with Gil Martinez. He didnt switch camps to switch his strategy and switch to full on grapple mode. This was a change in striking coaches, not training camps
-Belfort will be coming off of a 16 month layoff, massive ring rust
-Belfort hasnt fought at 185lb since Jan of 09 - thats 2 years
-Silva will have a 4in reach advantage and will be the bigger fighter
-Anderson really only has to worry about Vitor's boxing. He doesn't throw many kicks and he is going to have a hard time finding his range against a lanky Anderson
-This line is affected heavily by the 'old vitor' hype and the fact that the perception of Anderson was changed after his performance against Sonnen (even though he was injured for that fight and it has little relevance in this stylistic matchup)

If you are going to bet Vitor, I'd suggest just taking him in Round 1 or Round 2. He may have a chance at a flurry or big combo while his cardio isnt affecting him. He is a mentally weak fighter and if he cant finish or get to Anderson early, he'll crack and mail it in.

[rocky mattioli]

-If you are going to bet Vitor, I'd suggest just taking him in Round 1 or Round 2. He may have a chance at a flurry or big combo while his cardio isnt affecting him. He is a mentally weak fighter and if he cant finish or get to Anderson early, he'll crack and mail it in.

this....g.l....

[VictorRoll]

-Vitor and Sonnen have very little in common skill wise
-training with Randy or at Xtreme Couture doesn't make you an elite level wrestler like Sonnen
-Belfort was at Xtreme Couture for his last fight and has been for a while. He was only training with Tompkins for striking / rest with Xtreme Couture but has now chosen to go with Gil Martinez. He didnt switch camps to switch his strategy and switch to full on grapple mode. This was a change in striking coaches, not training camps
-Belfort will be coming off of a 16 month layoff, massive ring rust
-Belfort hasnt fought at 185lb since Jan of 09 - thats 2 years
-Silva will have a 4in reach advantage and will be the bigger fighter
-Anderson really only has to worry about Vitor's boxing. He doesn't throw many kicks and he is going to have a hard time finding his range against a lanky Anderson
-This line is affected heavily by the 'old vitor' hype and the fact that the perception of Anderson was changed after his performance against Sonnen (even though he was injured for that fight and it has little relevance in this stylistic matchup)

If you are going to bet Vitor, I'd suggest just taking him in Round 1 or Round 2. He may have a chance at a flurry or big combo while his cardio isnt affecting him. He is a mentally weak fighter and if he cant finish or get to Anderson early, he'll crack and mail it in.

This pretty much sums it up! But let's admit, if anyone has a puncher's chance (to actually hurt him) against Silva, it's Vitor based on his striking speed and power. Not to mention, the guy's got a decent chin.

You're right on the mark regarding Vitor's shot is early. And probably ONLY early.

[kiefynugs]

This pretty much sums it up! But let's admit, if anyone has a puncher's chance (to actually hurt him) against Silva, it's Vitor based on his striking speed and power. Not to mention, the guy's got a decent chin.

You're right on the mark regarding Vitor's shot is early. And probably ONLY early.

so are you gonna put the 500 on him or what?

[jin2daj]

i like vitor's advantages in this fight. silva is a counterpuncher and counterpunchers almost always rely on being quikcer than the other fighter. silva is not quicker than vitor. vitor has the ability to tag to silva all night long.

with that being said, vitor doesnt fight intelligently like that and if he tags anderson (who has a great chin) he's going to try to finish.

all these advantages seem to wash one another out and thats why imo this fight is not predictable. there are too many unanwered questions to accurately predict a result.

this ifght is a no bet for me,

though unfortuantely ill probably end up getting drunk before the fight and then stupidly putting money on it anwyas.

[lasker]

i like vitor's advantages in this fight. silva is a counterpuncher and counterpunchers almost always rely on being quikcer than the other fighter. silva is not quicker than vitor. vitor has the ability to tag to silva all night long. with that being said, vitor doesnt fight intelligently like that and if he tags anderson (who has a great chin) he's going to try to finish. all these advantages seem to wash one another out and thats why imo this fight is not predictable. there are too many unanwered questions to accurately predict a result. this ifght is a no bet for me

if you truly feel the advantages wash one another out and the fight is not predictable, then the rational thing to do would be to bet Belfort.

[jin2daj]

if you truly feel the advantages wash one another out and the fight is not predictable, then the rational thing to do would be to bet Belfort.

why? if theres any bet to make i would have thought vitor by tko/ko

[lasker]

why? if theres any bet to make i would have thought vitor by tko/ko

because if the advantages cancel each other out, and if the fight is too close to call and could go either way, then the underdog must have value. you'd be getting + money on what you consider around a 50% outcome, if I understand your assessment correctly.

[urge2kill]

because if the advantages cancel each other out, and if the fight is too close to call and could go either way, then the underdog must have value. you'd be getting + money on what you consider around a 50% outcome, if I understand your assessment correctly.

I think he's saying betting Vitor by KO would be better than betting Vitor straight up. I would agree with both of you.