No such thing as a lock... but is this as close as it comes. You got a guy with half his wins by submissions (6) fighting a guy who has all but 1 of his losses via submission (8)
I think mentally, Gulliard is screwd if this fight goes to the ground because hes going to get that "Here we go again mentality" I think this is a safe bet, maybe, for the sake of caution, somebody could convince me other wise ..