SBR Top-Rated Sportsbooks
Underdog value??? Matt Wiman to beat Cole Miller at Fight for the Troops...
Wiman came out at +185 on Bookmaker and is now down to +155 currently. 5dimes/Sportbet have Wiman available at +165; BetUs +160; and Pinnacle +162. For any EU based degenerates you can get Wiman at +190 on Ladbrokes currently which I may have to pounce on!
Firstly, I have to get off my chest that Wiman gets right on mys at times as he is another fighter who likes the old religious psychobabble and is especially fond of quoting Bible passages in his post-fight interviews as if he is some reincarnation of Jesus Christ himself, his last speech after Danzig was just cringe-worthy and I almost hope that Miller chokes him out just to avoid another one of those situations!
Anyway, back to the fight!...I believe that the odds for this fight should be closer to Miller -120 to -140; and Wiman +110 to +130 range or something around there, so at +165 to +190 that you can get him at currently = decent value IMO and this is why...
Wiman has a solid all-round game and proficient level of submission defence was demonstrated in his fights with two legit BJJ black-belts in Tavares and Jim Miller, where he showed composure and also an aggressive guard (especially against Tavares). This I feel could be key in this fight with Cole Miller as I've noticed on forums such as Sherdog and Tapology that many are picking Miller to get the win via submission. I'm sceptical of this potential outcome for two reasons. Firstly, as above, I feel Wiman has an underrated grappling game. He was very comfortable with Tavares in their fight when he was on his back and most recently we saw him submit Danzig, allbeit controversially, but nontheless it showed how relaxed, confident and aggressive his BJJ game is today. Before that fight with Danzig, I believe Wiman was training with Gilbert Melendez, Jake Shields, and the Diaz brothers which speaks for itself. Secondly, Im not so sure the fight will even go to the ground as I think Wiman will feel his best chance of winning this is by standing and TKO/KO'ing Miller. Of course Miller may take it to the ground however I also feel this is easier said then done. Wiman has decent wrestling and Miller doesnt tend to actively shoot for takedowns (as he admitted in an interview before the Pearson fight). Of course, he could rock Wiman and send him to the mat leading to a submission (as per the Pearson fight), but then Wiman has a solid chin (he got hit by a big right hand from Tavares and just shook it off, and also showed he can take a beating against Jim Miller and Sam Stout) - and Cole doesnt exactly have great KO power so that outcome is also unlikely IMO.
Wiman also has aggressive stand-up and decent KO power (see Tavares finish) which Miller has been susceptible to in the past against Stephens back in early 2008 (2nd round TKO loss) and about 14 months ago Efrain Escudero (1st rnd KO loss). Miller was also dropped by a left hook from Dan Lauzon but managed to pull off the win due to a combination of Lauzon's over-zealousness and Miller's superior BJJ. However, in his most recent fight against Pearson Miller showed improved stand-up and ability to utilise his reach and jab to good effect. I've noticed on some forums that people believe it was just a fluke punch that Miller landed on Pearson which lead to the submission and that Pearson was winning the fight until that point. Although I wouldn't go as far as sayin that the win was a fluke as such, I do however agree that Pearson was winning the fight and through lack of experience got slightly frustrated and perplexed by Miller's reach and jab and too anxious to finish the fight leading to him dropping his hands and forgetting about his footwork and head movement that he was using in the first round and as he had showed rather impressively against Dennis Siver. I also think that Pearson might of been overlooking Miller slightly due to the perceived big edge in striking that he had. Prior to the fight, Pearson worked mostly on his wrestling (training with Frankie Edgar and Rutgers for a couple of weeks) and didnt work as hard on his striking. As referred to earlier, Miller said in a pre-fight interview that he thought it was strange that Pearson was working extra hard on his wrestling as he had no intention of taking it to the ground, and to quote Cole "maybe he's thinking he's gonna walk straight through me and is playing catch up for the fight he might get after me." All in all, if they had a rematch, I wouldnt expect a similar outcome!
There are also a couple of things that could/should be considered before betting either way on this fight:
Is Cole Miller going to be distracted by the Cowboy Cerrone beef?!
And it's been seven months since Wiman's last octagon appearance which was only 1 minute 45 seconds long. His previous fight before that was December 2009 against Shane Nelson. So that is only 1 minute and 45 seconds in the cage in over a year. Does this lack of cage time in the octagon = ring rust?
I ultimately think that Wiman has a decent chance of winning this by either TKO/KO, or by decision if he lands some powerful shots that dont finish Miller and get's a couple of takedowns towards the end of rounds. Cole Miller clearly has a great chance to win this and is rightly the favourite due to his great team (ATT), momentum, and improved striking and 4/5" reach advantage combined with his dangerous submission game, however I just dont think he should be so heavily favoured. I feel there is value in Wiman at +150 or better and great value at +190 which I'm probably going to take at Ladbrokes.com. Additionally, due to both guys' great resiliency, I'd also consider taking the Over 2.5 or distance prop at plus odds. I know Lask has already got a unit on Wiman at +185 and Terp said he liked him at +160 so any further insight from you guys and anybody else would be awesome
Chairib gave Vaughany 69 SBR Point(s) for this post.
Reply With Quote
BOL!
Originally Posted by Poppa Catfish
Good job Wiman backers!
