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Brian Stann +160...
First of I must concede that I'm a big fan of Stann and this has recently been re-enforced by his autobiography which is an amazing read. With this in mind, I try to avoid betting on fighters that I'm a big fan of as it has stung me in the past. For instance I bet on Mir to beat Lesnar in the rematch more because Im a massive Mir fan and because I just wanted him to seal the deal on Lesner rather than objectively analysing the fight and realising that Mir has trouble with big guys and that Lesnar had improved a lot since their first fight. Needless to say, I'm going against this rule with the upcoming Leben vs Stann fight!
The Stann vs Cantwell series underpins a lot of my thought process behind backing Stann in this fight. Granted, their last fight was over a year ago and Stann has fought 3 times since their rubber match, however none of the fighters who Stann has faced since have been purely stand-up bangers like Leben is. So it's better to use the Cantwell fights as an indicator of what could happen as he is the closing thing to a striker that can be used to compare with Leben IMO rather than the likes of Wallace, Massenzio and Davis. Firstly, I'm working on the feeling that Cantwell is actually a better fighter than Leben. I feel Cantwell is a more technical version of Leben with better leg kicks and BJJ yet at same time similar power due to him being a LHW. Stann managed to finish Cantwell in their first fight, but granted Cantwell was very young and green and probably suffered from first fight jitters. In the rematch Cantwell got revenge and finished Stann after Stann had a great opportunity to finish Cantwell at the end of the second round. In Stann's book there is a great chapter near the beginning were he discusses his emotional and mental issues prior to the rematch and how he went in the cage with an 'already beaten' attitude. The rubber match is the key indicator of what Stann is capable of and why I feel he can beat Leben. Stann showed that he has decent footwork and head movement and can be elusive and not get drawn in to a brawl...***This is going to be key in the Leben fight***... as I think it's pretty clear that Stann's best chance of winning this fight is to stick and move and outpoint Leben in a similar way to what he did against Cantwell in their rubber match and what Bisping did against Leben. Obviously, their is a chance that Stann gets drawn in to a slug-match with Leben, which I think Leben would come out on top in. However, Stann is not stupid and with Team Jackson behind him it is unlikely that he will adopt such a risky strategy. Stann's camp and preparation is another key aspect, and in contrast with with Leben coming off a DUI there is no telling what condition (both physically and mentally) the Crippler will be in, whilst you can be 99% certain that Stann is going to be coming in the best shape (or at least close to) he's ever been in. Stann's BJJ has improved greatly since working solidly with Roberto Traven, his striking and wrestling improving greatly due to working with Team Jackson, sparring with the likes of Jon Jones is only going to sharpen Stann's skills. I actually wouldnt be surprised to see Stann try and mix in a couple of takedowns if he does get to close to Leben which could be possible seeing as he should be the bigger fighter of the two now that he is fighting at middleweight rather than LHW where he was slightly undersized.
I feel that '5dimes' and 'Sportbet' actually got it closer to being right by having Leben at -140 and Stann at Evens when the line was first released. I actually think Leben's only chance of winning this by TKO/KO and that this shouldnt warrant him being a big favourite against a guy that Stann who should have superior footwork, head movement, cardio and good enough wrestling and BJJ to prevent Leben being a threat on the ground if it went there.
Anyway, for now I have 1 unit on Stann at +160 and will be looking to add more on Stann by decision when the prop is available. Im sure some will disagree with my thoughts on this fight and would love to here some analysis and constructive-criticism before I do actually add any more units to a Stann related play!
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Originally Posted by lasker
