[Vaughany]

Official fight card (so far):

Main card:
Light Heavyweight bout: Stephan Bonnar vs. Igor Pokrajac
Middleweight bout: Demian Maia vs. Kendall Grove
Welterweight bout: Johny Hendricks vs. Rick Story
Lightweight bout: Michael Johnson/Nam Pham vs. Jonathan Brookins/Kyle Watson

Preliminary card:
Featherweight bout: Leonard Garcia vs. Tyler Toner
Bantamweight bout: Will Campuzano vs Nick Pace
Featherweight bout: Fredson Paixão vs. Pablo Garza
Middleweight bout: Rich Attonito vs. Dave Branch

Should be a decent card, with some interesting match-ups. I'm expecting Johnson to beat Nam Pham and Brookins to beat Watson leading to Brookins vs Johnson. I will be betting on Brookins no matter who he faces if the odds are reasonable, he is the most well-rounded of all the fighters in this season of TUF and also has the best mentality and attitude which can be the key to winning TUF IMO. The likes of Danzig, Sadollah, McGee did/don't stand out in any particular area and were not athletic beasts, but the advantage that they did have was that they were focussed and determined to win. I imagine that Bruce LeRoy and Cody McKenzie will be on the card, along with the two fighters who lose in the semis, and possibly Aaron Wilkinson and Marc Stevens or Spencer Paige could be involved .

Anyway, depending on the odds I will be looking to make plays on Branch to beat Attonito, Paixao over Garza, Toner (if he is the dog) over Garcia, Brookins over whoever!, Hendricks/Story to decision, Bonnar/Pokrajac to decision, and Maia to get Submission of the Night straddled with Maia by decision.

Peoples thoughts.........

[Vaughany]

Damn Bad Boy Garcia has pulled out, was hoping to get good value on Toner. Ian "The Barn Owl" Loveland steps in with a record of 13-7 (last 6 won on the bounce).

[The HOFF]

Damn Bad Boy Garcia has pulled out, was hoping to get good value on Toner. Ian "The Barn Owl" Loveland steps in with a record of 13-7 (last 6 won on the bounce).

Loveland has gone to decision just once. Wonder if this will have odds on if it goes the full 3 rounds.

[Poppa Catfish]

I also was hoping to bet against Garcia, oh well.

[RaiderNation MMA]

before you jump all over brookins, you might wanna re watch his fight with aldo. plus, i think MJ beats him anyway, but i think nam pham wins the whole thing.

maia and hendricks should win convincingly too

[Vaughany]

before you jump all over brookins, you might wanna re watch his fight with aldo. plus, i think MJ beats him anyway, but i think nam pham wins the whole thing.

maia and hendricks should win convincingly too

Why what does the Aldo fight suggest? He got his legs wrecked in the same way as most other fighters who have faced Aldo. Aldo is about 3 levels above anybody else in the TUF show yet Brookins still managed to last longer than any other fighter has except for Faber. He also reversed position on Aldo in first round, landed a shot that caused a knot above Aldo's eye and showed great heart. He wasnt even devastatingly knocked out unlike Swanson.
How many fighters have done this to Aldo or even come close:

[lasker]

I totally agree Vaughany, for a while now I've been thinking Brookins will win it all.

[Vaughany]

Plus Nam Phan is fighting MJ so they cant both beat him

[99Boxster]

I like Brookins too. I think Brookins will win a 2 round decision over Watson. Michael johnson should be a slight fav to beat nam, but he will be less experienced than brookins if they meet in the final. I like Brookins to sub MJ.

[jacktheknife]

Dropped a U each on Story and Pokrajac. 2 to 1 my ass.

[Kaladarus]

Plus Nam Phan is fighting MJ so they cant both beat him

I think he's saying either fighter would beat Brookins. I like Nam and MJ as underdogs also. I'm leaning towards Nam right now though. Got to see the last fights for some more info. Kyle has some good jiujitsu. If Brookins rolls him then that might change everyones opinion. If Brookins doesn't go right through Kyle then Nam or MJ will give him much bigger problems. MJ with the takedowns and Nam with the good stand up and sub defense. Going to be some interesting matches next wednessday.

[RaiderNation MMA]

apologies

i meant to just say brookins has his weaknesses like everyone else and while that throw was impressive he wont never land it on a powerful MJ.

i also meant whoever wins between nam and mj will win the entire show.

brookins should roll the one dimensional kyle watts, but i dont like him against nam or mj.

[Vaughany]

I can understand people thinking Nam is a good underdog to win, however Im not on the MJ hype train. IMO all three of the other semi-finalists are better fighters than Johnson. Johnson no doubt is explosive, however his wrestling credentials are not that impressive, they are just better in comparison with the rest of the cast. I may be wrong but from what I can work out he has only competed in amateur wrestling at Missouri Valley and was ranked 12th (NAIA) in his weight for 2010. His record outside of TUF is 8-4. His last win was against Chris McDaniel who has a record of 12-14. Brookins on the other hand has beaten guys like Luis Palomino and Jabouin and has a lot more experience than MJ, as does Nam Phan. Brookins as he has shown on TUF has a penchant for choking guys out, he even finished Palomino with a rear-naked and Stephen Ledbetter at Bellator 1 before that. MJ meanwhile has shown in the past that he is susceptible to submissions when losing to Joe Brammer, Eric Marriot and James Krause all by submission. And to say that "he wont never land it on a powerful MJ" is not only a tad ridiculous but also a double-negative so maybe you do actually think Brookins will throw MJ?! Even Aaron Wilkinson who has very basic wrestling ability and low level BJJ was able to take down Johnson and won the first round of their fight, so I have to question the logic behind thinking that Brookins couldn't manage a takedown of some sort as well! Add to the fact that Johnson's cardio is probably not at the level of Nam Phan or Brookins as well which doesnt bode well for a 3 round fight. But I guess we shall find out on Wednesday! Bellator have also sued UFC over Brookins, I wonder if UFC are gonna want Brookins to win to make the hassle of battling with Bellator worth it.

[RaiderNation MMA]

theres no way brookins throws MJ like that!! no way. its mj who would take brookins down and ground and pound.

but nam has faced the stiffest competition prior to the show out of all the final four.

he is still my pick to win the whole thing.

i wouldnt worry about bellator sueing for brookins, zuffa gets what it wants, regardless of the $$$

we shall see wedensday who is right

[RaiderNation MMA]

but my prediction, nam pham vs brookins in the finals

[The HOFF]

I definitely think Brookins has the skill to win it all. He'll be the favorite no matter who he fights in the Finale.

[Shane]

Brookins has serious potential. I'm pretty excited for this card. Brookins against Nam or MJ would be sweet. I think he'll handle either.

[Kaladarus]

I wish they showed the last episode last wednessday rather than making us wait 3 days before the finale.

[Vaughany]

Branch from -150 to -175, I was hoping he'd come out undervalued due to Attonito being a TUF alumni and having 2 wins on bounce but looks like bookmaker have got it about right.

Paixao at -130 is great value tho, I was expecting -200 at least.

[The HOFF]

Paixao at -130 is great value tho, I was expecting -200 at least.

For sure. I got to the lines a little late but still got Paixao -165. Also like Campuzano -140. Hopefully the full card is out tonight after TUF.

[Eccocide]

Fights added to the finale:

Leonard Garcia vs Nam Phan
Kyle Watson vs. Sako Chivichian
Aaron Wilkinson vs Cody McKenzie

[sideloaded]

So who is in the final from the show?

[THE_LOCKSMITH]

Brookins Vs Johnson in the final. Have to go against Johnson so his cardio alone. Brookins can pressure him very hard

[The HOFF]

Close fight but I think Nam Phan won that fight against Michael Johnson. Johnson didn't do anything in the third round. Nam did more damage from the bottom when he was taken down. I think Brookins will win the finale but who knows. The TUF cards are the most unpredictable. Big dogs always win on the TUF shows.

[Vrakas]

michael johnson won round 1 easy and also the 3rd but it was a close fight.in the third round johnson had 2 take downs and he landed more punches.

[Kaladarus]

Close fight for sure. I'm surprised Johnson got the takedowns in the 3rd after being unable to do much in the 2nd. Nam did do more damage and Johnson was unable to do anything on the ground, but I guess the judges gave it to the takedowns.

[Vaughany]

Skybet have released lines for all the fights, unusual as none of the main USA bookmakers have released their lines yet

Johnson -110 and Brookins -150
Wilkinson -162.5 and McKenzie +120
Watson -150 and Savo Chiv +110.

Thinking of going quite big on Brookins hedged with Johnson by decision.

[lasker]

crazy value on Brookins at -150... hope you got it before the line moved

[jin2daj]

i was really pulling for nam phan. i always appreciate the underdog :/ and i felt bad for him when everyone on his team was hating. lol.

[Vaughany]

crazy value on Brookins at -150... hope you got it before the line moved

Not yet but all the lines are still the same so I might put a few units on him in a bit. And if Pinnacle release similar lines to bookmaker and have Wilkinson as the dog at +160 or anything around that then I'll have another 'miracle' bet on my hands as Mckenzie is still +120 dog on Skybet!

[lasker]

This time I think the odds for the "miracle bet" are sharper

From what I saw, I think McKenzie should be the dog! I don't understand how he opened at -250 on Bodog... he's amazingly good at guillotines, obviously, but that's about all Wilkinson has to prepare for. On the feet the fight should clearly favor Wilkinson, and I think McKenzie will have trouble taking him down. Very strange line to me; Wilkinson is being seriously underestimated.

[illmatick]

Can't wait to see what 5dimes and Bookmaker release Wilkinson at, plus money would definitely be a gift.

[Vaughany]

This time I think the odds for the "miracle bet" are sharper

From what I saw, I think McKenzie should be the dog! I don't understand how he opened at -250 on Bodog... he's amazingly good at guillotines, obviously, but that's about all Wilkinson has to prepare for. On the feet the fight should clearly favor Wilkinson, and I think McKenzie will have trouble taking him down. Very strange line to me; Wilkinson is being seriously underestimated.

Yeah I meant Bodog not Bookmaker...I think it was bodog who brought Penn out as +130 dog against Hughes as well! And yeah the skybet odds are about right and how it should be. Cody does seem to be a one-trick pony and it almost seems like it would be too cliched for him to pull of the "McKenzietine" again and on a TUF Finale show! As you say Wilkinson has superior striking and his takedown defence isnt terrible as he showed against Johnson (who he also took down on a couple of occasions). The guys who McKenzie guillotined on the show played right in to his strength as they wer Killah (a taekwondo blackbelt and former member of the Hit Squad) and Marc Stevens (a one-dimentional wrestler) - both of whom had the automatic mindset that they had to look for the takedown and therefore gave McKenzie the guillotine on a plate. Wilkinson isnt going to have this natural inclination (the same as Nam Pham) and will just want to keep it standing and out-point Cody to a decision or TKO. Also, although not very significant, Wilkinson's favourite grappling technique is the guillotine!

[Vaughany]

Oh Brookins wasnt -150, he was actually -125! But Skybet have started lowering the lines...Brookins is now -137.5 but still great value so I've put 3.4 units on him! Cody is now +110 down from +120. Need pinnacle to release their lines pronto before I bite!

[99Boxster]

I thought Round 1 went to MJ and round 2 went to Nam. MJ didn't get 2 takedowns in the 3rd round. One was a desperation flying triangle attempt by Nam. The other was a takedown but nam did elbow and get up. No real damage was done by those elbows. So I'd score it on the standup in round 3. I thought Johnson landed the harder shots. So I'd Score it 29-28 MJ. On Pride scoring too I'd give it to MJ for the most damage done. He landed alot of shots and nam took all of them. Impressive. I thought it could have been scored a draw too. that 3rd round was questionably a 10-10.