[jin2daj]

im not a HUGE fan of boxing as opposed to MMA but I still watch it every once in a while. in my experience, favorites almost always win. is that true? i never see the huge underdog wins like serra/gsp or fedor/werdum or penn/edgar or hathaway/pyle or sonnen/marquardt etc etc

[Chipp]

I don't have any data, but on top of just being less likely to hear about a boxing upset (being more of an mma fan), there has also been an inordinate number of upsets in mma this year.

[iQon]

It happens, but not as often on the bigger stages like MMA. Usually, you're lucky to hit anything better than say... +150.

The best place to hit somewhat consistent boxing dogs are on undercards of big PPVs and overrated fighers with an undefeated record. Lines are dictated by records and you'd be surprised how many young fighters with padded records get knocked out by journeymen vets.

[Ian]

One of the reasons that boxing favorites win more often than MMA favorites is because boxers are often bigger favorites.

If you were to look at the lines on 5dimes right now you'd see that of 27 boxing bouts only 4 have favorites prices at less than -200, but there are 10 favorites going off at -1000 and greater. Compare that to the MMA lines and about 1/3 of the favorites are less than -200 and none are at -1000 or above.

[ddream1]

upsets happen in that +165 to +200 range at a very small rate, big dogs few far and in between. not sure why especially with all those huge dogs. weird. i think the mma championship's offer the best chance for dog wins and international mma like dream etc seems to mustard up some big doggies

[Handjuice]

There are plenty of upsets in boxing, a lot of times it just happens in the smaller promotions. I remember Miguel Vasquez was a +400 underdog when he beat Jin Hoo kIM early this year. Patrik Lopez was a+700 underdog when he beat Prenice Brewer, Francisco Sierra was like a +800 underdog when he beat Don George earlier this year. And then you have upsets in the bigger fights like Pavlik Losing to B-Hop,Mosely Crushing Margarito, Maidana smashing Ortiz, Andre Ward beating Kessler etc. You just have to know where to look.